Prefectures and municipalities implement a phased disaster response system triggered by various weather warnings, such as heavy rain warnings, and carry out disaster standby operations. To evaluate the adequacy of disaster response systems, it is necessary to understand the frequency of these warnings and the corresponding occurrence of damages. Therefore, this study investigated the relationship between heavy rain advisories, heavy rain warnings, and landslide alert information (hereinafter referred to as "heavy rain warnings and related alerts") and the occurrence of damages in Kumamoto Prefecture.
Defining a "heavy rain warnings and related alerts event" as the sequence of advisories, warnings, and cancellations issued in a municipality from the initial issuance of a heavy rain advisory or warning until all alerts are lifted, there were 7,123 such events over seven years. Among these, 5,410 were advisories only,1,237 were warnings only, and 476 included landslide alerts. There were 218 damage reports across all municipalities over seven years, with215 ofthese reports correspondingto heavyrain warnings and related alerts events, and 3 occurring without such events.
When comparing these data by municipality, the damage occurrence rates increased with the level of warning: 1.7% for advisories only, 6.9% for warnings only, and 30.3% for landslide alerts. Conversely, the non-occurrence rates ofdamage decreased to98.3%,92.8%,and69.1%,respectively,andtheoversightratesremained lowat0.1%,0.2%,and0.6%,respectively.Additionally, there were no heavy rain-related damages in the absence of heavy rain warnings and related alerts, and the probability of damage occurring during advisory-only events was found to be extremely low.
View full abstract