This paper is summarized as follows. (1) Though population with malnutrition has decreased in the world lately, absolute malnutrition in Sub Sahara Africa has rather increased. In the region food and nutrition is likely to be shortage, a state of starvation is easily emerging, due to natural disaster and one caused by human being. (2) Scale of food demand is determined by increase of population and income per capita in the long run. In the future, it should be supposed that demand for such higher added products as animal products, horticultural crops and vegetable oils will increase. (3) Scale of food production is determined mainly by farmland and production per hectare. In the future, food production will be brought with increase of production per hectare. Coping with the change of food demand structure, production of animal products, horticultural crops and oilseeds will increase. Basically speaking, it should be noted that production of cereals is needed to increase consistently. (4) In the perspective of expansion of food trade globally in the future, food import will more increase in the developing countries and developing countries will get into net importer of food. In terms of imported food contents, import of oilseed, wheat, rice and coarse grains will increase significantly. (5) It is estimated that demand and supply of world food for next decade will show trend of slightly oversupply. However, in the developing countries shortage of cereals will make seriously due to increased number of livestock and consequently the rate of cereal self sufficiency will make lower. In particular, Sub Sahara Africa will face to serious food shortage with a view of difficulty of food import due to the constraint of foreign currency. (6) As desirable ways of international cooperation for agriculture towards the future, focusing on improvement of agricultural productivity for small farmer, four points as follows should be taken into consideration; ① strengthening linkage among research/development, extension and farmer, ② improving productive infrastructure on agriculture consistently, ③ building up institution and policies for small farmers and strengthening the farmer's group, ④ planning and implementing proper policies for agricultural and rural development.
In conclusion, in the future it is estimated that demand and supply of world food will get to slightly oversupply and international price of food will make lower substantially. In the developing countries, food will be likely to get into shortage generally and food shortage will be filled up with import and aid. In order to increase food production, important points should be put on development and extension of agricultural technology, improvement on agricultural infrastructure and institution and capacity building of human resources, focusing on small farmers as principal food producer. Finally, it is considered that capacity enhancement of small farmer in the developing countries is key point on increase and stabilization of world food, poverty reduction and environmental conservation.
In the international agricultural trade, food supply has grown increasingly concentrated around developed countries and a few middle-income countries such as Brazil, which serve as food exporters to a majority of developing countries. However, food exporting countries have disadvantages in agricultural production such as soil erosion, ground water depletion and salinization. Thus the food trade patterns, as they stand, will not be sustainable.
This round of WTO negotiations is called the Doha Development Agenda. Yet Brazil, a major exporter, is representing developing countries in the negotiations, thus opinions of a great number of foodimporting developing countries have not been reflected. Some less developed countries have expressed concern over the erosion of preferential tariff margins by way of tariff reductions by developed countries. Furthermore, the terms of trade of food-importing developing countries are worsening due to increase in international food prices caused by the reduction of agricultural protection by developed countries. In order to cope with this situation, however, food-importing developing countries' terms of trade need to improve by helping those countries to increase agricultural productivity or exports of valueadded products, and thereby eliminate tariff escalation which discourages imports of value-added products in developed countries. Developing countries may utilize special and deferential treatment such as creation of subsidies for transforming economy or industry, which are not subject to reduction commitments. Efforts like these would be more advisable from a long-term perspective than maintaining preferential tariff margins. But we should keep in mind that excessive special and deferential treatment will do more harm to developing countries since they trade with each other. Japan needs to transform its agricultural protection from tariffs to direct support. This will increase access to opportunities for developing countries. Developed countries should also make financial contributions to encourage sustainability in agriculture in developing countries.
Food production remains an important concern to be tackled in an increasing world population. Before, most developing countries experienced low yields due to insufficient food production technology. Hence, international cooperation for developing countries was born and human inventions on improved technology became an important tool. The first biggest change in the production system was during the agricultural revolution from the 18th to 19th century. This involved rotation cropping, mechanized farming and enclosure system. Next was the large-scale farming establishment guaranteed by the opening of Chicago international grains market. These past two revolutions emphasized extensive farming. The third was the Green Revolution (GR) period taking place in the 1950s. During the GR period, high-yielding varieties (HYVs) and high fertilization with irrigation were introduced. The emphasis here was intensive farming.
Government and donor-country assistance through technical cooperation enabled the farmers to adopt the modern technologies and national food self-sufficiency levels were achieved. The technical cooperation experience in Asia proved this. First, Japan assisted in technology generation only. Later, technological systems were incorporated through model farms system establishment adapted to location-specific conditions. This spread further to regional level giving more emphasis on extension. This sometimes lacked local adaptation thus more basic cooperation was undertaken. The development paradigm in the 1990s expanded to social aspects, including participatory and sustainability concerns. However, at the micro-level, still some of the landless farmers have not benefited much.
In Africa, farmers have not benefited, too, because the GR system did not adapt very well in the region. This was both an issue of technical and insufficient infrastructure support. African agricultural environment condition is severe, thus, the need for more emphasis on infrastructure and appropriate small-scale technology program provided that there is peace and order in the society. With such condition, the NERICA rice may or may not achieve yields similar with the HYVs in Africa.
Currently, technical cooperation is in Indonesia. Technical and infrastructure support, fertilizers and chemicals are provided on a loan basis, and extension system established. Japan ODA umbrella system technical cooperation combined all above elements. Based on the 15-year observation, the sustainability of the technology is related with the farmers' needs and the existence of experienced key persons in the area. Future materials may be discovered through biotechnology but, scientifically, the seed itself can not provide yield without infrastructure, skills enhancement and material support. Africa still lacks these elements. The challenge remains on how to overcome these problems. Biotechnology may produce super materials but to make these locally-adaptable is more important concern.
If we classify the food problem into two stages; i.e. the shortage of cereals for human direct consumption as the first stage, and the shortage of cereals for feeding animals for human use (meat, egg, milk, etc.) as the second stage, India is now in a transitional period from the first stage to the second one. Complicated is such a fact that whereas there remains a large number of malnutrition populations, India emerged as a major rice exporting country after the mid-1990s, and also, there is no symptom so far of shortage of cereals for feeding animals despite the rapid and accelerated economic growth during the last two decades. This paper analyses the structure of food problem in India, especially in relation to the food policy measures and thus discusses the future prospects of the problem. The major conclusions are as follows. First, rising food prices after the 1990s due to the mismanagement of public procurement and distribution system for foodgrains is one of the major factors which finally turned India into a rice exporting country. Second, however, per capita human direct consumption of cereals started to decline since the early 1980s, which together with the decelerated population growth is a more fundamental factor behind the change of the situation. Third, with the accelerated economic growth, demand for animal products has been rapidly growing since the 1980s, although rather small in absolute terms. Fourth, livestock feeding is still basically non-intensive in nature, depending less on cereals. Still, the demand for coarse cereals (especially maize) has been increasing rapidly, which has however been met by the increase of domestic production so far. Fifth, there is a possibility in the near future for India that it will face a shortage of coarse cereal production for animal feed, whereas it continued to face a structural over-production of rice and wheat.
The global community today should ask “Who feed Sub-Saharan Africa, which is faced with the contemporary Malthusian crisis?” rather than “Who feed China?” Aside from remarkable increase in productivity of cereals in the rest of the world, Africa's cereal productivity has stayed very low, especially since the mid-1980s. This stagnation has led to imbalance between supply and demand of cereals, which may increasingly place heavy pressure on international cereal markets. Statistical analyses suggest that direct causes for low land productivity of cereals in Africa are meager volume of inputs such as fertilizer and underdevelopment of agricultural infrastructure including irrigation facility. Fertilizer input and irrigation development are significantly low in Africa. A more important issue is why Africa is particularly faced with such serious shortcomings in relation to these variables. It is demonstrated that low level of input of fertilizer is significantly correlated with low-level of education (adult literacy rate) and extent of marketization of food production. Underdevelopment of irrigation system can be explained by Africa's rather unique historical background where farmers have avoided intensive and costly utilization of land. Due to this background, collaborative activities essential for irrigated production is rather new for African farmers. Irrigation construction and management are very difficult as it should mobilize farmers' commitment in long-term collective outcomes while suppressing their short-term free-riding activities. To overcome these problems, human development centered on education is to be linked with, rather than differentiated from, agricultural development and fostering of markets. Education is to be reoriented so that productive collective capacity as well as individual personal capacity could be reinforced for the purpose of building and managing collective infrastructure.
An index decomposition analysis method is adopted to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of various factors to the amount of sulfur dioxide emissions from 29 regions (province and large cities) of China during the period 1993-2003. Four factors are adopted for this analysis output of the secondary industries (manufacturing and energy industries), efficiency of coal combustion, sulfur content of coal, and rate of desulfurization. Considering the development of China's national policy for air pollution control, period of the analysis is divided into four phases: Phase I (1993-1995), Phase II (1995-1997), Phase III (1998-2001), and Phase IV (2001-2003). Patterns of increase or decrease of the emission from the previous phase are very different among the regions.
A cluster analysis of the 3 factors excluding of output of the secondary industries and 29 regions resulted in four types: energy efficiency lowering type, coal quality improving type, desulfurization developing and coal quality lowering type, and energy efficiency improving type. During the Phase I, many regions are categorized as energy efficiency lowering type, but few regions are categorized as the type after Phase I. Regions of coal quality improving type had significantly decreased the emissions during Phase I, II and III despite of increase of industrial output. Regions of desulfurization developing and coal quality lowering type increased the emission throughout the four periods, indicating that development of desulfurization was unable to substantially reduce the emissions. During Phase II, many regions are categorized as energy efficiency improving type, indicating energy saving contributed to the reduction of the emissions during this period.
While factors affecting the amount of the emissions are different among the regions and phases, lowering coal sulfur content seem to have been selected as the measure of sulfur dioxide emission reductions prior to adoption of desulfurization equipment. Energy intensity has been improving throughout the four periods, but was unable to offset the emission increase due to the increasing industrial output.
When the poor in rural South Asia attempt to improve their livelihoods by participation in a viable economic activity, they face many difficulties. One of them is how to coexist with equivalent activities of richer people, including local elites. Local elites are “the people who make or shape the main political and economic decisions” and “whose income and status derive (in part) from their control of large landholdings” (Hossain and Moore 2002). Through an analysis of a sericulture programme implemented by a local NGO and other players in the Bangladesh sericulture and silk sector, this paper explores how the poor can capture an economic opportunity in such an agrarian society controlled by local elites.
In Bengal, the sericulture and silk industry has a long history which started before the arrival of the British. However, in recent years, sericulture has become a declining industry in Bangladesh due to corruption within the Bangladesh Sericulture Board and unfavourable competitions with imported silk yarn. In contrast, the weaving and garment sub-sectors have comprised a growing industry, taking advantage of cheaper and better-quality imported yarn.
Supported by the World Bank's Silk Development Project, an NGO, the Institute of Integrated Rural Development (IIRD), has attempted to generate employment for the landless poor in sericulture by linking their sericulture activities with the growing domestic market of silk yarn and its final products. Local elites in the IIRD programme area regarded sericulture as a declining industry from which they could not gain profits. The experience of the IIRD sericulture programme suggests that a declining industry can generate an economic opportunity for the poor without any competitions with the local rich. The critical issue is not to make the economic opportunity sustainable, but to allow the participants to improve their livelihoods as much as possible until the declining industry dies out or is reconstructed as another prospective industry for the rich.
This paper analyzes the rural livelihoods of smallholder households in six villages in various parts of Malawi. Based on the analytical framework of “rural livelihoods approach”, the paper examines landholdings, labor use, maize production, and income portfolios of rural households. Various institutions such as customary land tenure and agrarian contracts are also analyzed with reference to their implications to agricultural production and household food security. Income from non-farm economic activities appears to be particularly important to smallholder households who were hit by the unfavorable weather condition in the 2004/05 agricultural season.
Although Central-South America is the original place of cassava, currently the most cassava producing region is Africa, and Asia is leading its industrial utilization. And research efforts have been ignored to cassava in C-S America. However, most recently there have been changing situation of concerns of production and utilization about cassava in Brazil. Because the wide-spread of recognition of advantages of cassava both for foods and for industrial uses. Therefore, this study examines what is the factor influences on-going changes of concerns about cassava in Brazil.
Results show, in Brazil, it could be divided two dimensions for cassava production and utilization within one country. In the Southern Brazil, it advances that cassava production and utilization, in terms of varieties, farming systems, and procurement of raw materials. On the other hand, in the North and the Northeast Brazil, it has been still utilized conventional varieties, farming and processing systems. Moreover, the North and the Northeast regions are put in the domestic, specialization of cassava production and distribution which is led by the Southern region. There are strong needs for the investment on research and development (R&D) for cassava, not only in production technologies but also in processing and marketing systems, and on coordination between companies and farmers relate to cassava.
This is the good opportunity to learn from Brazilian experience, in terms of cassava production technologies, marketing and distribution systems, in the middle of its another prosperity of the cassava sector. At the same time, the Brazil could also learn the other ideas to every aspect of cassava from other countries, for further development.
As stated in Japan's New ODA Charter, a municipality is one of the valuable resources for development cooperation. But in reality, Japanese municipalities are restricted in human resources, foreign languages, and technical applicability to developing countries. Given those conditions, how can the experience and know-how of Japan's municipalities contribute to development of developing countries? This paper tries to examine the management of those municipal resources from an analysis of two projects on local administration in Thailand, and to propose a mechanism for maximizing the output from those resources.
The mechanism consists of four factors. First of all, it is necessary to grasp the decentralization policy of each developing country and clarify the positioning of cooperation, which defines the framework of the project output and resource utilization. The second factor is strategic input of Japan's municipal resources toward several targets in the developing country. For example, a training program in Japan targeting both a local administration and rural people can be effective as a common experience and will promote consideration of a regional plan reflecting local needs and resources. Moreover, combining a training program in Japan and dispatching an expert enables training participants to follow up by applying lessons of the training program to their own local development. Thirdly, a coordinator-type expert, well versed in the needs of the developing country, plays an essential role in managing both the timing of training programs and experts. Lastly, it is recommended to make the most of local experts to connect lessons of the training program in Japan with local conditions.
The above mechanism cannot be applied everywhere as it is. It is important to adapt each factor to the conditions of the country and to consider the timing of application of the factors to guarantee the function of the mechanism as a whole.