The aim of this study is to analyse the diffusion effect of passenger vehicles that achieved the fuel consumption standard under the Top Runners Approach towards the improvement of stock-based fuel consumption in actual use (actual fuel consumption). In order to investigate the actual fuel consumption with high statistical reliability, we have put focus upon voluntary reported fuel consumption log data collected from all over Japan for 54 months by a certain mobile phone contents provider and have established an actual fuel consumption database of passenger vehicles. The results of statistical analyses using the database show that actual fuel consumption can be explained by vehicle weight and that actual fuel consumption of gasoline-fuelled passenger vehicles is significantly improving every year compared with that of FY2001. The validity of the actual fuel consumption obtained from the database is confirmed by comparing with the actual fuel consumption estimated from existing transport statistics.
This paper presents the result of investigating how energy-efficient technologies are expected to diffuse in the Chinese industry when the national CO2 emission is to be reduced using GOAL model, a linear optimization model of energy system covering seven countries in the eastern Asia. Current energy consumption in the Chinese industry is surveyed, where energy services are grouped into steel making, cement production, ammonia production, paper production, process heat, motive power and lighting. Twenty-three energy-efficient technologies are prepared as options for these end-uses. The diffusion rates of the twenty-three technologies in the period between 2010 and 2030 are obtained under constraint on the national CO2 emission at different levels. Some energy-efficient measures such as hot direct charging in steel making, black liquor recovery in paper production and oxygen rich continuous gasification in small- and medium-size ammonia production are found viable only with the help of a stringent CO2 emission reduction. Energy intensities of crude steel, cement, ammonia and paper in the year 2020 are estimated and compared with the current values.