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67 巻, 11 号
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三澤 千代治1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 899-900
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーPDF形式でダウンロード (236K) -
木船 久雄1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 901-909
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーIt is tremendously difficult to do and read forecast long-term energy supply/demand in cases both of the World and Japan. Therefore, the most important matters in long term projections are (1) basic concept and assumption behind projections and (2) implications of them.
Based on several world energy outlooks up to the 2000, round the year of 2000, we will depend on oil at the rate of 40-50% to total primary energy supply. And at that time, more than half of total oil supply will come from OPEC.
That trend is a common result ammong several projections, and, probably, it is unavoidable. In order to keep away from future's volatile energy circumstance, we should make efforts to progress energy resources development and international cooperation between energy producing countries and consuming ones, also among consuming countries by technological assistances and economic relations.
As to Japanese long-term energy projections, two common trends will be made clear by several forecasts. Those are (1) low energy demand growth; energy/GNP elasticity will be 0.3-0.6, and (2) the rate of oil dependence will be 45-50%.
Consequently, Japan's energy market wll be much competitive among energy supply industries; oil, gas, and power companies. And inter-industries matters will increase through new technologies such as co-generation. We should add two new view points to energy policies. One of the view points is from energy industries forecasted low growth and the other is from 'whole energy industry', not each energy industry such as power, gas or oil.
Development of energy resources and new technologies relating energy consumption and producing should be durable without influence by short-term circumstance change.
At this time, we are given a energy glat situation, however that will not continue, so we should keep it in mind that we hold a precarious future.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1107K) -
岩渕 雅明1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 910-919
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2011/10/21
ジャーナル フリーThe most important subject to be solved by our generation is to develop a renewable, low-priced, and clean energy source.
Though dinosaur dominated the earth for one hundred and sixty million years since about three hundred million years ago, they suddenly became extinct sixty-five million years ago. Only one million and five hundred thousand years have passed since primitive man appeared. Only 138 years have passed since a true oil-based civilization began in 1850 (when petroleum refining technique was established).
The president of EXXON foresees that the price of oil will jump to 30-35 dollars per barrel before around 1995 due to the exhaustion of resources. He also stated that substitutes for oil on which we would place our hope before 1995 would be only tar sand and oil shale. Is it true? I would like to prove that the utilization of solar biotechnology could permit us to produce 660 liters of oil daily per hectare at an approximate cost of 10 dollars per barrel.
If we master the production technology of this kind of energy, we will be able to survive without making our species destroy for several generations under the ground even if we expose ourselves to a nuclear war or even if meteorite or a comet crashes into the earth.
Without such technology, our history may be closed at short period of time just like dinosaur, due to a nuclear war or a crash of big meteorite.
We have succeeded in fixing almost 30% of visible ray energy in an experiment using chlorella. This is equivalent to 88% of the theoretical value of 34%. This is 200 times more efficient in visible ray conversion than grain culture as done in Japan.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1490K) -
穂積 史郎1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 920-930
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーElectronic industries of Japan are divided into 3 sections ; consumer electronic appliances, industrial electronic apparatuses, and electronic components. The annual products and the rates of growth of the respective sections were almost equal during the 2nd crisis, and this status has changed recently.
Computers in the section of industrial electronic apparatuses and microprocessors in the section of electronic components grow up in high rates, compared with others. It is expected that these tendencies will continue further for several years at least.
Energy analyses of refregerators, color-televisions and room-air-conditioners show that these appliances in the uses consume the energies 12-37 times as much as the energies consumed in their manufacturing stages. For the sake of saving energy, it is very important to reduce the running energies by the appliances.
In the decade after the start of the Moon Light Project, the electric power consumptions of the appliances above mentioned have been reduced to 40-60% of the initial amounts. The principal technologies contributing to the reductions of the power consumptions were; (1) improvements in efficiensies of components, (2) inovations of ideas and design concepts, and (3) optimized operations by electronic controls. In recent years, various consumer appliances and machines are controlled by electronic controllers having microcomputers so as not only to extend increased facilities and amenities to their users but also to save much energy. Examples of electronic controls of a room-air-conditioner and automobiles are described.
When costs of high performance computers will go down further in near future, it will be possible that various sophisticated design methods and control technologies, which are applied to large processes like electric power plants today, are applied to consumer appliances and machines. As the examples, a 3-dimensional heat and fluid flow computing program applied to analyse comfortable characteristics of a room with heating, the modern control theory applied to a domestic hot water supplier equipped with a heat-pump, and the adaptive control theory applied to a solar energy collecting system are shown.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1277K) -
森 俊夫, 岡 敬之助1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 931-941
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーUntil recently, the earth has been so big as to be seemed limitlees and unchanged. However it is observed that human activity adds about 1.4 ppm per year of CO2 to the atmosphere by fuel combustion. And now it is feared that the increased level of CO2 would cause some world wide greenhouse effect enough to change the climate.
This makes the new energy technologies such as solar, wind, and geothermal etc. the key answer to a near future crisis in how the world utilizes energy. Among them, new materials are the most important factor for research and development.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1272K) -
中川 侃1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 942-952
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーThe iron and steel industry, most representative of heavy industry, is the largest energy consuming industry, accounting for about 13% of the nation' s total energy consumption. Approximately 80% of this 13% is consumued by integrated steelworks, which are supplied with energy virtually in the form of coal alone.
New processes such as the smelting reduction process for supplementing iron production by the blast furnace process, the semi-solid process and the near net shape continuous casting process for process elimination and quality improvement are being developed today, and the commercialization of some of them is anticipated in the year 2001.
In the iron and steel industry, restructuring has been rigorously under way for the consolidation of production equipment and facilities as a measure to cope with the present high value of the yen agaist other currencies. The socioeconomic situation both outside and inside Japan will continue to change, but the annual crude steel production and the ratio of converter steel to electric-furnace steel produced can be expected to remain generally the same at the beginning of the 21st century as today. Energy consumption by the iron and steel industry then will be about the same as forecast for the year 2000 in the “Energy Vision of The Iron and Steel Industry for The 21st Century” published in the autumn of 1986 by the Japan Iron & Steel Federation, which is some 8% of the nation' s energy consumption, a decrease of about 4% from the current level.
As the smelting reduction process can be operated in such a way as to supply out of the system large volumes of by-product gas produced from steam coal and low quality coal used in the prosess, the iron and steel industry, if all regulations allow, can become an energy-upply industry and thus play a role pertinent to the coming multiple energies era.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1391K) -
技術開発を中心として上田 雅美, 藤原 万喜夫1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 953-964
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーOur economic society seems to have reached a great turning Point. If we focus our attention on the electric utility industry and its surroundings, we find that situation has remarkably changed in recent years. The requests for high-quality electricity supply have been increasing. Customers' needs have been diversifying. Additionally, customers have been inclined to amenities. Consequently, those changes promote the competition among energy sources and the electric utility industries are required to consider its future business activities fundamentally.
In such situation, it is important for the electric utility industry to shift its awareness from supply to sales, and to make broad technological development in the electric power use and its supply. Therefore, the electric utility industry should fully understand the great possibility and necessity of technological development in energy industries and make efforts for developing independent technologies under the long-term R & D stralegies
In this report, at first, supply-demand outlook for electricity in Japan is discribed, which is based on the interim report (October 1987) of the Electric Utility Industry Council's Supply-Demand Working Group.At last, we explain the important fields of technological development on which the electric utility industry must place more emphasis.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1550K) -
前田 忠昭1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 965-971
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーGas industry of Japan has been changing substancially since its start about 100 years ago. The main raw materials was coal and consequently petroleum products until LNG was im ported for the first time in 1969.
LNG gave the industry many influences such as changes in gas manufacturing methods, worker's shift to the sales divisions, technology development for new gas uses and business diver sification of the industry.
The 21st Century will be the age of natural gas or the gas industry in Japan. Full of energy sourses including the deep earth gas, newly developped technologies such as gas heat pump, next generation gas cooling units, many types of cogeneration and fuel cell, and the industry's efforts to establish business diversification which may offer new life styles, new value added ways of using energy and new concepts for construction of intelligent cities. All these will assure the industry a prosperous future in the next century抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1404K) -
金子 安雄1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 972-982
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーThe forecast of refinery's product pattern and the refining process in 2000 and thereafter is conducted. The outline is as follows. According to the long range forecast of energy balance, petroleum is still the most improtant energy resource in Japan, in future. The required total quantity of fuel oil is estimated to be almost the same quantity to the present, and the product pattern of netroleum is estimated to have similar tendency as the present.
In short, it is estimated that the percent of gasoline and middle distillate in fuel oil will increase and the percent of heavy oil decrease.
As to the refining process, the number of cracking units, especially heavy oil FCC, heavy oil hydrocracking will increase, because they can feed residual oil and can make light oil such as gasoline and middle distillate. On the other hand, the partial oxidation process for heavy oil is estimated to have more important role in future refinery, because it can not only make H2 for hydrocracking and hydrodesulfurizing, but also can consume heaVy oil. The cost of partial oxidation for heavy oil is still high, but it will decrease by technology development.
In more distant future, refinery will make progress in such technology fields as follows.
(1) Robot; especially, in batch operation, for example, cleaning and inspection of heavy oil tanks, heat exchangers, reactors, etc.
(2) Computer;especially, the use of the expert system applied AI technology, for example, for daily refining scheme, daily transportation schedule, plant's operation guide, foreseeing of equipment's trouble, etc.
(3) Maintenance; the use of new material, such as ceramics, and the upgrading of existing material, etc.
(4) Energy saving; for example, research for high activated catalyst to FCC, hydrocracking, par tial oxidation process etc. to be able to operate in low temperature or in low pressure, and the waste heat recovery from low temperature gas or liquid in refinery, etc.
(5) New process; for example, bio-technology for fine chemicals, new separation technique for valuable products, etc.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1229K) -
8.1 自動車吉田 仰1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 983-991
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーFuture energy problems for automobiles have been discussed with regard to two aspects.
Alternative energy sources other than liquid fossil fuels generally have a poor energy density, which results in rather shorter range in vehicles as can be seen in EVs. Social infrastructures, such as many charging stations, have to be settled for backing up the minor performance of the vehicle before the cars are widely accepted and used as an alternative for the conventional vehicles.
Recently, an environmental change on the earth due to increment of CO2 has aroused many discussions. It is presumable that some restrictions on consuming the fossil fuels may be carried out in the next century. We might be in a transient period to a new fuel system age which is not dependent on the fossil fuels in the earth.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1212K) -
大塚 誠一1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 992-1004
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2011/02/23
ジャーナル フリーAviation fuels for coming 20 to 30 years are studied, the kerosene fuel currently produced from crude oll will still be used for gasturbine engine powered aircraft.
However, the synthetic kerosene, which has higher property than current kerosene, will also be utilized.
The liquified hydrogen will be introdused as a very hopeful fuel for the environmental protection, safety and economical stand point not only for conventional type of aircraft, but also for SST and HST within next 20 to 30 years.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1702K) -
今村 弘人1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 1005-1013
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーIt apprears that oil refineries will continue their produstion of residual fuel at the end of this century but the demand for lighter petroleum products such as gas oil and kerosene from heavier crude oil will lead the increase of investments in refinery orocess to convert residual fuel components into more valuable product.
The trend leads the further degradiation of residual fuel and requests thorough investigation at ship owners, engine builders and related equipment manufacturers on effective utilization of such degraded fuel. While these business segments are making utmost effort to establish the proposed international marine fuel quality standard, it will be very difficult that all grades proposed be available at worldwide ports. It is expected that the major stream of residual fuel available will be of blended with cracked components such as FCC slurry oil, residuals treated with visbreaking and lightcycle gas oil from catalytic cracking.
The further improvement of diesel engine design, the adoption of adequate fuel treating equipment and optimum handling practices aboard the ship are very important to ensure the safe and economical operation of ships with such degraded fuel.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (871K) -
中上 英俊1988 年 67 巻 11 号 p. 1014-1024
発行日: 1988/11/20
公開日: 2010/06/28
ジャーナル フリーFor the last 20 years, energy demand of household sector in Japan continued to increase. Anual growth rate was 3.9% for first 10 years, and was 2.3% for last 10 years. Income elasticity of the latter decade, however, is higher than that of the former one. In fact, for these 20 years, various energy use appliances have spread widly in our homes. For example, water heating, and spase heating appliances are already installed in almost all of the houses in Japan.
Nowadays, air cooling appliances are becoming more and more popular. In this way, energy demand of household sector will be expected to steadily increase for over 10-15 years from now on.
On the other hand, we made efforts to save energy in residencial use for the last 10-15 years. For these few years, however, these efforts are fading out slowly. We must remind ourselves of the im portance of energy saving in our family life. Energy saving is one of most reasonable way for us to establish more comfortable home life. Therefore, we must make efforts to use energy more efficiently, and also think about reasonable and moderate life style for our families on view point of energy use.抄録全体を表示PDF形式でダウンロード (1290K)
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