The cost spent for ship operation must be considered when analyzing reliable support systems for main engines. This paper proposes new models in System Dynamics (SD) simulations for determining the reliability index (RI) degradation of ship machineries which are installed in main engine support systems of ships. The purpose of this study is to minimize the total operation cost (
CT) of machinery which is comprised of running cost (
Cr), maintenance cost (
Cm) and downtime cost (
Cd). Reliability analysis is taken into account based on data from maintenance records. In this paper, two kinds of optimization models which utilize SD are compared. Model 1, an optimization model without forecasting, utilizes a value of minimum RI as a decision to obtain the lowest
CT. The minimum RI is the level of reliability of machinery where maintenance actions need to be taken. Model 2, an optimization model with forecasting, constructs the maintenance judgment by forecasting the value of RI for avoiding the minimum RI before a ship arrives at the destination port. Sea water and fresh water cooling pumps are analyzed as a case study. Model 1 resulted in minimum
CT, while model 2 reached a
CT lower than the outcome of model 1.
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