Aluminum demand has faced a significant growth in the last few decades in Japan. For most uses, small amounts of other metals are added to primary aluminum to make harder alloys, which are classified by the alloying elements and their concentrations. Aluminum scraps from end-of-life products, which are used as raw materials for secondary aluminum, are often mixtures of several alloys. Therefore, not only the amount of obsolete scrap generation but also their concentrations of alloying elements must be taken into account for assessing the maximum recycle ratio of aluminum scraps.
In this paper, a dynamic substance flow analysis of aluminum and its alloying elements in Japan was conducted. Focused alloying elements were Si, Fe, Cu and Mn. We categorized aluminum end-uses in 8 categories and aluminum alloys in 16 types. Each amount of alloy used in each end-use category was estimated from statistical data. Then we estimated amounts of the future aluminum scrap generation in 8 categories by population balance model. At the same time, the concentrations of alloying elements in each end-use were calculated.
It was estimated that the amount of aluminum scrap recovery in Japan would be about 1800 kt in 2050, which was 2.12 times as large as that in 1990. Calculated concentrations of alloying elements in scraps were compared with those of measured data, which showed fair correspondence.
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