Lifeline disruptions in earthquake disaster seriously affect user's daily lives and socio-economic activities. In this paper, an assessment model for effects of utility lifeline disruptions has been developed taking account of countermeasures by both suppliers and users. First, time-dependent probability distributions of 2³ disruption patterns of three lifelines are evaluated on the basis of seismic intensities, vulnerability of pipelines and post-earthquake emergency shutdown controls. Users' time-dependent activity levels normalized to 1 at nonnalcy are evaluated for each disruption pattern considering acceptable outage time due to back-ups. Two time functions are combined to evaluate area-wide activity levels in the disaster-stricken area, aiming at minimization of the overall impact.
Damage estimation for scenario earthquakes is extensively conducted by local governments in Japan for emergency response planning. However, local govemments usually do not possess detailed grid data of lifelines with pipe material, diameter and length's information in a grid cell. To improve the accuracy of earthquake damage assessment, a correlation analysis is carried out to compare the water pipeline length within a grid cell of 250m with the corresponding road length and with other lifeline lengths. Then a method to estimate the water pipe length from the road data is proposed and its accuracy is investigated using the actual pipeline GIS data.
This paper aims to show the effect of post-earthquake road traffic function on the efficiency of the emergency restoration for electric distribution facilities. For the analysis, the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake is anticipated. First, we estimated the amount of damaged utility poles due to the earthquake. Second, the optimum path of road network from the bases of restoration personnel to the disaster area are explored, employing indexes to quantify physical and functional state of the road networks and the traveling time via the optimum paths is estimated. Based on these results, the restoration process of the utility poles are analyzed.
The tsunami accompanied by the 2011 East Japan Earthquake Disaster killed many people in the 37 municipalities of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures. Inundated areas’topography, exposure, estimated tsunami and demographic change is vary considerably from one region to another. This paper analyzes the causes of the motality rates of each municipality comparing those inundated area’s characteristics where similar height of tsunami attacked. As the result of this preliminary analyses, we found the municipalities whose motality rate were higher than others in propotion as tsunami height. And we also found the potential field investigation sites where we should intensive field survey on the critical cause of damage.
Many culture equipments were drifted by 2010 Chilean Tsunami in Sanriku Coast, although this tsunami did not cause any human damage in Japan. Moreover, almost all equipments were destroyed by 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in East Japan. Drifting of culture equipments induces not only direct damage in fishery, but also secondary damage by blocking ship traffic and destroying structures. Tension force in mooring rope of culture equipment was measured in hydraulic experiments in wave flume. The experimental results supported an empirical draft-condition of culture raft. Besides, experiments in wave basin showed that culture equipments diffused in larger area than woods.
This study discusses the validity of fault models proposed for the 1946 Showa-Nankai Earthquake based on the actual accounts of people who experienced the earthquake. Testimonies that mention ground shaking during the earthquake were collected from Wakayama, Tokushima and Kochi. It was found that testimonies are consistent with the fault models proposed ever, describing different patterns of shaking in different regions. Simulation of ground motions is also conducted to further verify the fault model. Assuming the asperities and the fault rupture process, the simulated motions are capable of describing testimonies with reasonable accuracy. However, collecting a greater number of testimonies may be necessary for further modifications of the fault model.
The Purpose of this paper is to develop the Geographic lnforamtion Web System for Disaster Medicine to support the disaster medical activities after the earthquake occurs, and to be verified the usefulness of the system by Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake (2011.3.11). This GIS has the information on the hospitals and the public offices, and can display information that has been gatherd through the Emergency Medical lnformation System provided by Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare after the earthquake occures. This result of the verification showed that it was useful for the disaster medical activities to use the GIS. On the other hand, it seems that it is a problem to establish a steady operation sytem and to increase the information.
We had a huge earthquake in March 11th, 2011 called "the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake''. This caused many kinds of disasters and the wide-area damage all over the eastern of Japan. Against this catastrophe, we decided to establish the emergency mapping team and to realize the development of Common Operational Picture (COP) among the responders of ministries and agencies in the central government. There are, however, two big problems. First is that we had to collect and integrate many kinds and large volume of information, second is that it took much more time to figure out the actual damage. As the way to solve these problems, we selected "Mash Up Spatial lnformation''. In this activities, we realize the development of COP creating 500 maps in one and half month.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides Earthquake Early Warnings (EEW) for advanced users from August 1, 2006. Advanced EEW users can forecaste seismic ground motion (example: Seismic lntensity, Peak Ground Acceleration) from information of the earthquake in EEW. But there are limits to the accuracy and the earliness of the forecasting. This paper describes regression equation to decrease the error and to increase rapidity of the forecast of ground motion parameters from Real Time Earthquake lnformation based on wave form data at the front site．
This paper discusses an effective strategy of seismic strengthening of wooden houses dominant in Japan in aim for reduciton of death toll. In the first part, we construct the equations by which the death toll in a district can be estimated in relation with the rate of seismic strengthening. It is developed by rebuilding or seismic repairing, and is worsen as aging of houses. In the second part, we applied the equation to all prefecures in Japan and estimated the temporal change of death reduction to figure out the effect of rebuilding and of changing where people live. As a result, we found out that in a case with a probability of 2% and in 2005 census data inhabitants killed would be around 90,000.
This study investigates the building damage in Kashiwazaki city due to the 2007 Niigata-Ken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake. Most building fragility functions, used for damage estimation in scenario earthquakes, were developed based on the data from the 1995 Hyougoken-Nanbu earthquake. However, already sixteen years have passed after this event, and hence it is better to employ recent earthquake data. In this study, the damage ratios of buildings are investigated from the view points of structural material and the construction period. The obtained damage ratios are compared with recorded PGV values and the empirical fragility function from the Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake.
Many prefectural governments has been drafted the Action Plans for Disaster Reduction which were demanded in 2005 by the Central Disaster Management Council. This paper are investigated in the strategic targets in the Action Plans precisely and examined the problems of the overarching goal of damage mitigation such as 50% reduction of the death toll and 40% reduction of the economic loss within a 10 year period. And the methods of the estimating a reduction in number of damage houses are proposed to the evaluation of the effectiveness in the reduction program. It will be proceeded the Action Plans for Disaster Reduction in the proper procedure.
According to amendment of the Flood Control Law, all municipalities in Japan which have flood risk are obliged to make flood hazard map and to demonstrate flood risk to the public. Before March 31, 2010, 1109 of 1302 municipalities have already completed manufacture of flood hazard map. However,the contents, design of these hazard maps are various that make the hazard maps hardly provide people effective information while evacuating from flood. It is important to develop effective hazard map for saving human lives. This paper proposes a standardized method for developing effective hazard map based on the analysis of all municipality hazard maps in Hyogo Prefecture.
Great Eastern Japan Earthquake devastated broad and divergent areas that made municipality boundary or urban sphere inaccessible for disaster recovery planning unit. With the aim to achieve recovery in the context of living sphere, this paper examined basic living service and developed a process to allocate fundamental living spheres in Kii Peninsula, then applied it into destroyed coastal areas.It is found that, basic living service can be viewed as 3 layers structure(required,living-base,urban)in a cluster analysis. Depending on spatial distribution of basic living service, fundamental living sphere constructed by sphere core and other 4 portions can be acquired via spatial autocorrelation analysis. The application result clearly remarked 27 completely or partially inundated fundamental living sphere cores which clearified necessary issues for disaster recovery with aspect of living service.
This study aims to setup a prediction model of recovery of population in areas damaged by earthquake. Firstly, a basic concept of a prediction model is shown. That is constituted by 2-step of Regression Analysis. The model is set up by using population data in Kobe city after 1995 Kobe Earthquake. It shows fliat damages on people and buildings have statistically significant relation to population decrease and recovery. Secondly, the msodel is applied to 23 wards at Tokyo in Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake. Population recovery of each ward is estimated. It is estimated that some wards would take long time until recovery. This research is useful for disaster recovery planning.
This research studies how big companies will suffer damage from earthquake disaster in Tokyo metropolitan area. As a conclusion, this paper highlights three major points. First, Earthquake disaster in Tokyo metropolitan area delays the decision-making process of large companies as a whole because corporate headquarter make decision about purchase, shipment, and production. Second, big company will recover in Tokyo metropolitan area after earthquake disaster there because there are stakesholders, management resources, and residences of employees in Kanto area. Third, it falls in production of big companies because companies have very little stock without manufacturers of pharmaceuticals.
The web information, especially mass media and social media information, have a more increasing role in create operational picture about a crisis since the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami disaster. In this paper, we have developed and basically analyze web news corpus of the earthquake and tsunami disaster with text mining method intended to clear the whole picture. The corpus consists of over 60,000 web news articles which tagged its topic name. Sub corpora about Nuclear power plant accident, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Aomori, Ibaraki, and Chiba from original corpus, and analyzed by comparison of extracted keywords and their chronological behaviors.
A new issue is emerging regarding the policy and legal affairs for the protection and use of personal information at the time of natural disaster. Since a guideline was enacted in 2005, individual municipalities have gathered and shared the personal information of vulnerable people to disasters in various ways, and it became necessary to review the theory of policy and legal affairs for the information of vulnerable people to disasters. This paper is aimed at critically grasping the “3 methods” for collecting and sharing the information of vulnerable people specified in the guideline, discussing again and clarifying how such information should be gleaned and shared.
It is an important social mission for West Nippon Expressway Co.,Ltd. (NEXCO-West) which is a designated public institution to maintain expressway network operations for wide area against various risks. NEXCO West currently works on business continuity plan development to cope with the various risks. This paper reports on process of the business continuity plan development aimed at the establishment of the standardized crisis management system and efficient expressway operation by applying Business Flow Diagram (BFD) and Incident Command System (ICS) through a case study at Kansai Regional Branch of NEXCO-West.
In the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake occurred on March 11th, we shed light on the characteristics of the data sharing among public offices. They sent or exchanged paper-based information because of security, defacing, divulgation and personal information, so they have to entry from non-electronic data manually when they need digital data set. We proposed necessity of clarifying the standards of data entry and data set and constructed the data format of "evacuees in shelters data set" using the three disaster-affected local governments.
In this paper, we discuss a questionnaire survey concerning stranded commuters in the metropolitan area in the East Japan Earthquake. In the metropolitan area the average of commuting time is about 68 minutes and a lot of people commute particularly with railways that reach its peak during the morning and evening hours. When the railway network does not work properly or stop working suddenly for some reason, much of the stranded commuters have to stay at their existing locations or try to reach home on foot that may take a very long time which was observed in the case of East Japan Earthquake. Based on the results of the survey we conducted when the earthquake occurred, nearly 20 percent of people couldn’t come home at the same day. Accordingly, it can be said that the stranded commuters would behave in the same way when the next earthquake occurs.
To evaluate the optimum risk treatment for one year, Okazaki et al. had proposed a method that used cost-benefit analysis with the consideration of variance of losses. However, the term of mitigation often spans multiple years. Therefore, in this study, we proposed a method for evaluating the optimum mitigation for multiple years. In addition, to apply the suitable mitigation for multiple years, it is important to consider the prioritization of areas of mitigation. Prioritizing areas with the maximum potential for losses can lead to decreased expectation of losses during the period when mitigation is applied. Through the validation, we confirmed the method's efficacy in not only shortening the period for which mitigation is applied but also reducing the expectation of the annual total cost during the period.
As seismic hazard and risk information for the citizens, seismic hazard maps that indicate intensity of shake are made for example by local governments. For the next step, authors made seismic risk map for residential building damage. Based on this map, we developed the web-based seismic hazard and risk map. The purpose of the web-based map is that the citizen recognize his/her own seismic hazard and risk problem by showing detailed map of estimation on the seismic intensity and the building damage risk where the citizen lives. The questionnaire survey on the web-based map was conducted in order to research the effect of the citizens' disaster awareness and disaster prevention behavior which were caused by the web-based map.
A disaster drill was held at five places in Shizuoka Prefecture; the Shizuoka prefectural general hospital, the disaster site damaged by tsunami, the emergency relief place set at elementary school, the Shizuoka heliport where patients were transported from the hospital and the Department of Medicine at Yamanashi University as the imaginary hospital to coorpolate and share the patient information. Two helicopters were also used for the patient, who was actually transferd from the hospital to the shizuoka heliport. As a result, it was able to collect and share the location and the triage level of each patient in real time.
In the previous research on social capital, only a few had been focused on the social characteristics of a region as a basic foundation that nurtures social capital. In particular, how population, income, aging population and other social background influence its social capital formation. In this paper, a simultaneous analysis of several groups was conducted, using theft records, arson records, Management Unions' Fundamental Survey from 2007, 2008 and 2010 and Nation Census 2005, to empirically examine what type of social background affects the 5 factors promoting social capital (Tatsuki, 2007; 2008). This study clarified what factors promoting social capital exists in regions with what types of social background. The suggestion to communities to improve their performance in social capital were discussed.
This article aims to identify the living conditions of people who became disabled due to disaster. It has been assumed that there are many individuals who suffered injuries or illnesses and became disabled due to the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, which hit Kobe City, Japan, on January 17, 1995. However, the exact number of victims and their current living situations are not clear. This article draws upon field research to identify and explore their current living conditions. The article then discusses the limits of the current social welfare and compensation systems, which simply focus on providing compensation for people who became disabled, and how these systems may be improved by implementing a policy for preventing further injuries or illnesses.
This study intended to clarify collaboration activites and needs between community organization for disaster prevention and other related sectors. As a result of a questionaire survey in Machida city (420 thouthands people), gathered survey sheets were 201 ( returned ratio was 70.5% ), organizations activities were analyzed by crosstab method and relationship between collaboration performance and needs were clarified. After that, collaboration support activities for commnunity organizations were discussed based on survey results.
It is essential for disaster prevention education to develop teachers and maintain materials. The paper shows differences about interest in embracing of earthquake disaster prevention education in primary teacher’s intrinsic motivation and utilization possibility of teaching materials of the earthquake disaster prevention education. The results the following: 1) there are differences about teaching materials selection in intention and purpose of disaster prevention education, 2) More than 60 percent of teachers positively evaluate no making teaching material earthquake disaster collaterals.
It is indicated that torrential rain is tend to increase in Japan. On the other hand, underground area is efficiently utilized in urban areas of Japan. Considering flood-control measure on underground area is very important matter for the Japan of today. In this paper, we simulated some type of inundation and evacuation activities affected by the depth of water in a underground station. In this study, we clarified the time when each exit become unavailable, and that there is the exit which has a great influence on the time taken to evacuate. According these simulation results, it becomes clear that strategic evacuation guidance based on the flood situation is very important for safer evacuation.
In this study, we clarify the actual conditions and backgrounds of isolated deaths at temporary housing and recovery housing in disaster area, conducting statistical analyses based on death certificates. The results are as follows, 1) The ages of those who die alone are higher at recovery housing than temporary housing. At recovery housing, it also takes longer for discovery. The main reason for this is young people under age fifty with isolation risks such as remaining unemployed and single. 2) At temporary housing, family and neighbors mitigate the isolation risks, while their roles decline at recovery housing. 3) Location of recovery housing has little connection with isolation of disaster victims. One of the factors seems to be that the isolated condition has already been established before moving into recovery housing. Community-conscious safety nets should be in place especially in the early stage of restoring stable living.
Regional charachteristics of municipality, such as natural and societal environments, strongly affect earthquake disaster pattern. Present study focuses on them and attempts to clearfy the latent regional characteristics in earthquake resistance and response capacity indexes. Through the factor analysis, the combination of a few strong effective indexes can identify coherent distribution of municipality with similar regional characteristcs. This result is useful to imagin the disaster pattern with lessons of earthquake-experienced municipality having similar reginal characterictics and to develop the disaster planning and countermesures with diversity of regionality.
In order to examine effective means to encourage inhabitants to install smoke alarms in their houses, we conducted a questionnaire survey on the citizens of Joso city, Moriya city, Kasumigaura city and Ishioka city in lbaraki prefecture. Based on the obtained data, we grasped the present percentage of housing in which smoke alarms were installed in each city and examined effectiveness of making the installing them compulsory and some support measures of the municipal authorities to diffuse them. In addition, we studied how much respondents' intentions of installing them were enhanced by knowing information about possibility of the equipment to reduce the dead in fires.
The authors conducted an internet survey regarding the March 2011 Great Eastern Japan Earthquake Disaster. The sample was taken from the nationwide internet monitor, an internet-based survey, living outside the disaster areas Optimal scaling and cross tabulation were used to analyze behaviors such as "panic buying,” “giving monetary donation,” and “sending supplies.” The result showed the following: a) social capital affect the behavior of cash donation and sending/offering of supplies; b) people who donate or send goods tend to reduce their expenses, and c) people living near the disaster area feel a strong sense of insecurity which leads to panic buying.