【Objectives】 This study conducted a structural analysis of the recovery of welfare provision systems following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake and explored how temporary, reversible stagnation transitions into irreversible structural deterioration. 【Subjects and Methods】 A retrospective descriptive and exploratory study covered six municipalities in the Noto region (Suzu, Wajima, Anamizu, Noto, Nanao, and Shika) from the acute phase to early recovery (December 2025). A mixed-methods design was adopted, combining descriptive analysis of administrative statistics and coordination headquarters records with qualitative findings from semi-structured interviews with four prefectural officials responsible for welfare recovery. Recovery processes were examined longitudinally by analyzing interactions among three structural components: facility availability, workforce capacity, and population dynamics. 【Results】 During the subacute phase, a “three-way deadlock” emerged in which welfare providers, medical institutions, and evacuees delayed decisions because of persistent uncertainty. Coordinated information sharing and resource allocation partially mitigated this stagnation. However, as recovery progressed, three structural barriers became evident: facility reconstruction delays, continuing workforce shortages that forced operational downsizing, and difficulty estimating actual service demand because many evacuees remained unregistered outside their home municipalities. These barriers interacted, generating a negative spiral (a vicious cycle with progressive loss of reversibility) in which each factor reinforced the others, gradually reducing the possibility of recovery. 【Discussion】The transition from reversible deadlock to irreversible structural deterioration was driven by simultaneous, prolonged uncertainty in both demand and supply, resulting in a “paralysis of decision-making” among providers, government, and residents. As time passed, staff relocated permanently, evacuees established new lives elsewhere, and investors abandoned reconstruction plans, rendering each change increasingly irreversible. This process suggests a mechanism whereby simultaneous, prolonged uncertainty in both demand and supply generates decision-making paralysis and accelerates irreversibility through substantive changes. These structural conditions distinguish the Noto case from previous disasters such as the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Kumamoto Earthquake. 【Conclusion】 In regions characterized by population decline and advanced population aging, preventing irreversible deterioration requires rapid resolution of the three-way deadlock and coordinated recovery across medical care, welfare services, and community reconstruction. Once irreversible demographic and workforce changes occur, recovery strategies must shift from restoring pre-disaster systems to adaptive reconstruction aligned with the transformed population structure. These perspectives provide essential principles for disaster recovery in aging and depopulating societies.
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