リスク学研究
Online ISSN : 2435-8436
Print ISSN : 2435-8428
最新号
選択された号の論文の6件中1~6を表示しています
巻頭言
【特集】日本リスク学会第33回年次大会
情報
原著論文
  • 金見 拓, 浅見 真理, 秋葉 道宏, 大野 浩一
    2021 年 31 巻 1 号 p. 11-30
    発行日: 2021/08/25
    公開日: 2021/09/04
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    More than 100 water quality accidents caused by source water contaminants are reported annually in Japan. In the case of significant accidents, water suppliers have to decide whether to maintain water supply with a “Do Not Drink” alert or to suspend it. To acquire the basic data for decision-making, we conducted an internet questionnaire on public perception. The answers and properties of 1,104 respondents were collected considering area, age and gender distribution in Japan. And they were statistically analyzed with or without precedent conditions. The respondents were more likely to prefer water supply continuity when information was provided on its health effects compared to when there was only an announcement on the exceedance of the water quality standards. The confidence on ordinary tap water quality did not relate to the preference of water supply continuity. Meanwhile, elderly people and those who wanted to avoid toilet flush failure tended to choose water supply continuation. The preference of water supply suspension was more likely to be affected by the information provided than the respondents’ properties. Therefore, water suppliers need to consider the information provision in both before and after issuing an alert.

  • 久保 英也
    2021 年 31 巻 1 号 p. 31-40
    発行日: 2021/08/25
    公開日: 2021/09/04
    [早期公開] 公開日: 2021/06/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    To confront COVID-19 infections, which are highly uncertain, it is important, as a precondition for implementing countermeasures, to (1) understand the current status of the number of new positive cases by removing the effects of increases or decreases in the number of tests, and (2) secure a time margin for implementing policies so that they do not follow the status quo.

    In this paper, we will discuss (1) the “real number of new positive cases” to accurately recognize the current situation, (2) the “short-term forecast using the ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) model” to contribute to appropriate decision-making, and (3) the “long-term forecast using the geographical time lag which ensures long-term preparation time for medical infrastructure development.

  • 元吉 忠寛
    2021 年 31 巻 1 号 p. 41-48
    発行日: 2021/08/25
    公開日: 2021/09/04
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    The present study examined the effects of high risk perception and information presentation consistent with self-schema on the intention to evacuate in weather-related disasters. In Experiment 1, mothers of young children were assigned to one of the following conditions: risk (high, low)×message (control, evacuate with the child, protect the child’s life). The results showed they had enhanced evacuation intentions under the high-risk conditions. We also found that information consistent with their self-schema (evacuate with the child condition) strengthened evacuation intentions. In Experiment 2, females and males living with a person in need of assistance during a disaster were assigned to one of the following conditions: risk (high, low)×message (control, evacuate with those in need, protect the lives of those in need). People living with a person in need of assistance during a disaster had enhanced evacuation intentions under high-risk conditions. Males showed that information consistent with their own schema (evacuate with those in need condition) strengthened their evacuation intentions. On the other hand, females did not change their evacuation intentions by changing the way the information was presented.

レター
  • 望月 智也
    2021 年 31 巻 1 号 p. 49-53
    発行日: 2021/08/25
    公開日: 2021/09/04
    [早期公開] 公開日: 2021/08/10
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    In the event of earthquake damage to production facilities, there are a variety of possible effects, such as the impact on nearby residents due to secondary disasters such as fires, explosions, and leaks, and the impoverishment of people’s lives due to stagnation of economic activities and bankruptcy of companies. Although the government and local governments have made progress in earthquake-resistant buildings designed according to the old earthquake resistance standards, the progress of production facilities has been slow. This paper examines and shows the problems of production facilities in order to provide incentives for their seismic retrofitting.

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