リスク学研究
Online ISSN : 2435-8436
Print ISSN : 2435-8428
最新号
選択された号の論文の4件中1~4を表示しています
巻頭言
特集 MIPプロジェクト
総説論文
  • 村上 道夫, 小野 恭子, 井上 知也, 西川 佳孝, 小島 直也, 岩崎 雄一, 平井 祐介, 藤井 健吉, 永井 孝志
    2024 年 33 巻 4 号 p. 155-165
    発行日: 2024/03/31
    公開日: 2024/03/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    In this review, we selected Klinke and Renn (2002), entitled “A new approach to risk evaluation and management: risk-based, precaution-based, and discourse-based strategies,” published in Risk Analysis, as the most influential article from a regulatory science perspective. In this review paper, we first summarize what the Klinke and Renn (2002) paper claimed, and then classify the topics by structural topic modeling in order to analyze in what fields the Klinke and Renn (2002) paper was cited. Representative references were extracted from each classified topic to further investigate in what context Klinke and Renn (2002) paper were cited. In addition, we also organized the citation status in literature other than journal papers. Through the analyses, we found the Klinke and Renn (2002) paper was cited in a wide variety of topics, including uncertainty and decision making, regulation, systems and decision making, communication, climate change, management, systems and evaluation, and infrastructure. The citations could be divided into four main categories: characteristics of risk, criteria for assessing risk, proposed risk classes, and risk governance frames. In particular, the discussion of risk governance frames proved to have a broad impact on cross disciplines.

原著論文
  • 保高 徹生, 藤田 司, 内藤 航, 大西 正輝, 村上 道夫, 井元 清哉, 奥田 知明
    2024 年 33 巻 4 号 p. 167-178
    発行日: 2024/03/31
    公開日: 2024/03/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    With the purpose of evaluating the transmission risk of novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and the effectiveness of countermeasures at school graduation and entrance ceremonies, this study examined various event conditions during an assumed ceremony attended by 865 participants, including singing, diploma conferment, and ceremonial address, and built an infection risk evaluation model that takes into account the effectiveness of countermeasures such as mask wearing during the ceremony. With the conditions assumed in this study, the average risk of infection per asymptomatic infected person attending a graduation ceremony was 4.0×10-5 (0.035 for a graduation ceremony attended by 865 people) when no preventive measures such as wearing a mask were taken. The average risk of infection per asymptomatically infected person attending an entrance ceremony with the same conditions mentioned above was 1.2×10-5 (0.010 for an entrance ceremony attended by 865 people) when no measures were taken, suggesting that the average risk of infection was higher at graduation ceremonies. In the graduation ceremony, the risk of infection when measures were taken to wear masks only during singing was 2.2×10-5 (0.019 for a graduation ceremony attended by 865 people), and the average risk of infection among participants was reduced by about 45% when non-woven masks were worn during singing. Although the risk of infection at graduation and entrance ceremonies is low even without any countermeasures, a combination of various countermeasures will be effective if the infection rate in the community increases.

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