Japan’s long-term mitigation target in 2050 is to reduce GHG emission by 80% compared to 1990 level. However, after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011, availability of nuclear power in the future becomes uncertain. Complying with the discussion about Japan’s new energy policy, nuclear power may phase out toward 2050. This study is intended to estimates a feasibility to achieve 80% reduction target without nuclear power, by using multi-regional end-use model in Japan.
The model is developed based on AIM/Enduse Model and divided into 10 regions which are consistent with Japan’s 10 major electric power company’s distribution area. The regional characteristics such as renewable energy potential and climate condition are reflected in the model. In this study, current electricity interconnection capacity limit among 10 regions, and reinforcement of interconnection as a countermeasure are also considered.
As a result, without nuclear power, carbon price to achieve 80% reduction by 2050 will be up to 51,000yen/tCO
2 in 2050. However, if reinforcing interconnection is available, carbon price is reduced by up to 5%. To compensate for the phase-out of nuclear power, not only implementation of energy efficiency or renewable but system technology such as reinforcing electricity interconnection is substantially important.
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