After the liberalization of electricity market in Japan, new entry electricity suppliers will need to schedule the electricity supply and demand plans and procure the shortage electricity from the market. Basically they cannot afford enough capacity of generators and expensive supply and demand control system. Therefore, it is important that knowing characteristics of electricity demand and forecasting a day-ahead electricity demand accurately using the system without heavy process. In addition, the forecasting methods should not be black boxed but also be explainable in qualitatively.
In this paper, we proposed several methods of simplified data reference using day type or temperature as criteria of selecting reference day and evaluated each method’s forecast accuracy. Moreover, we use the best data reference method as the base model of forecasting and combine other methods to improve forecast accuracy with simple condition. The results show that even using simplified data reference methods, it is able to forecast accurately with 6.2% in annual average of daily mean absolute error (MAE). In some estimate conditions, this method is able to reduce imbalance penalty cost which is equal to a few % of supply cost of electricity.

抄録全体を表示

This paper presents a cost analysis on hydrogen energy carrier supply chains using three different hydrogen energy carriers, such as liquefied hydrogen, ammonia, and organic hydrides (Toluene and Methylcyclohexane). An international supply chain from a foreign country to Japan by ship is the target of this analysis. The authors calculated hydrogen supply cost per 1 normal cubic meter in 2030 and 2050. For 2030 case, the cost, capacity, and efficiency of each facilities, which includes technological advancement to 2030, are summed up. For 2050 case, cost, capacity, and efficiency of facilities are assumed in order to realize the targeted cost 20 JPY/Nm³. The authors set comparable conditions among the carriers, calculated material and energy balances, assumed facilities in three supply chains, and got CAPEX and OPEX of the supply chains. As a result, the authors got two findings. Firstly, among three supply chains, there is small supply cost difference in both 2030 and 2050. Secondly, by comparing the supply costs of each carrier in 2030 and that of 2050, the authors found essential points of research and development; liquefaction, storage and shipping for liquefied hydrogen, composition and decomposition for ammonia, and dehydrogenation for organic hydrides.

抄録全体を表示