The Japanese government has announced the GHG reduction target of 46% by 2030 and net zero by 2050. The target for the transportation sector by 2030 is 35%. It is necessary to implement global warming measurements as soon as possible to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets. There are various measures to mitigate global warming caused by the automotive sector: vehicle-specific measures, traffic flow measures, and fuel diversification. The authors developed estimating method for long-term CO
2 emissions of the automotive sector in a previous study. Diffusion of next generation vehicles is one of the most effective measurements among vehicle-specific measures. However, next-generation vehicles are known to have greater energy consumption in fuel and vehicle production than conventional vehicles. In this study, we developed a life-cycle CO
2 emissions estimation method for the long-term future that adds CO
2 emissions of vehicle production, fuel production, and vehicle disposal. Using the developed methodology, three scenarios were analyzed. The results of the scenario analysis show that Tank to Wheel CO
2 emissions decrease the most in the CME Case, in which electrification has progressed. On the other hand, the life-cycle CO
2 emissions reduction of the CME case is lower than Tank to Wheel CO
2 emissions reduction because the CO
2 emissions of fuel and vehicle products of next-generation vehicle are higher.
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