The commercial sector is one of Japan’s major energy-consuming sectors, and quantifying its energy consumption is a critical challenge. Existing estimation methods have faced limitations in quantifying energy consumption at the municipal level. To address the gap, we proposed a framework for estimating the energy consumption of municipal commercial building stocks. Utilizing statistical models developed from Energy Consumption Statistics microdata, this framework determines energy use intensity (EUI) by accounting for both fuel-type selection and the specific intensity values of each fuel. We demonstrated the effectiveness of this framework by applying it to the Japanese office building stock. Results indicate that EUI can be quantified while accounting for spatial variability, annual changes, building size, and business category. However, we found insufficient evidence to confirm consistency between the estimated EUIs and previous research, or between extrapolated nationwide estimates and national-level energy statistics. Finally, we identify several challenges that must be resolved to fully establish this framework for municipal-level applications.

抄録全体を表示

This study decomposes the impacts of grid-connection regimes (Deep vs. Shallow) and lead times on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of offshore wind projects. Using a dataset of operational European projects, we conducted regression analyses focusing on the United Kingdom (developer-led Deep regime; N=37) and Germany/Netherlands (TSO-led Shallow regime; N=40). We comprehensively evaluated CAPEX determinants across three categories: location factors (e.g., spatial capacity density and distance to shore), technology factors (CAPEX report year), and lead time factors (durations of permitting and construction). Results reveal that in the Deep regime, while technological benefits are often offset by market risks, developers exhibit optimizing behavior by increasing capacity density to dilute infrastructure costs. Additionally, permitting delays directly increase CAPEX. In contrast, in the Shallow regime, where infrastructure risks are shielded, technological progress directly drives substantial cost reductions. However, this regime exposes other risks, such as the physical costs of increasing distance from shore and delays from idle times associated with infrastructure development. Identical technological advancements or delays manifest entirely differently in costs depending on institutional design. The insights suggest a policy paradox: while the Shallow regime appears advantageous by shielding developers from infrastructure risks, relying on public entities for grid development can create bottlenecks, where infrastructure delays lead to idle times that ultimately drive up project costs.

抄録全体を表示