[in Japanese]

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[in Japanese]

View full abstract

[in Japanese]

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China's “Three Gorges Project” (a portfolio term for the entire building enterprise at the Three Gorges Dam), will, when completed, result in the largest hydroelectric station i n the world. The purpose of this paper i s to see what can be learned by reviewing the basic idea behind the project' s population relocation policy and its probable out- comes. The paper has three sections. The first section presents an outline of the plan, which will take over twenty years to complete and will entail the relocation of over l llmi 11 ion people. Section two projects an estimate as to what the economic level will bein 2010, when the project is completed, both for the people in the dis- tricts to be inundated and for the surrounding districts. This estimate, an important research result accesible to outside observers, i s pr imar i -1 y the work of the N an j ing Soil Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Ecological Research Institute of Bei- jing Teachers' College together with nine other cooperation research institutes in China. I t compares the economic situation of 1985 and the projected economic situation of 2010 for the nineteen districts in the Three Gorges area. The projection assumes optimal conditions. Comparison of these two years shows that after the dam project is com- pleted, the economic situation in some districts will remain what it was before the project, while in other districts the situation will deter i o-rate. The third section surveys the basic ideas of the Chinese government' sannounced population relocation policy and the concrete measures it en- tails. This policy has two main elements. One, a conventional measure, is simply to provide a certain amount of money to each relocated person. The other, called Relocation Development, is to promote economic con-ditions in the districts where relocated people will live and thus pro- vide them with an economic foundation. I n conclusion, i t i s suggested that the Three Gorges Project will require concrete plans for regional development, plans that will be eco- nomically feasible and will not give rise to the disparities of the past. These plans should also bring about favorable consequences, both socia-lly and ppolitically.

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This paper describes a possible energy supply in China at the age of 2010, based on several conditions such as GNP per capita, energy consumption per capita, energy elastisity on GNP, energy supply as a function of commercial railway distance and other perspective data published in China. This paper concludes that the total energy supply in 2010 wpuld be around one thousand three hundred million tons of oil equivalent. This paper adds that energy conservation will especially be helpful to China because people in Chinawill require a great amount of work suppoprted by energy in the future, the discrepancy between energy supply and energy demand could only be filled by energy conservation and the related technology transfer from developed countries

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No macro-transportation project can go without the concept of 'More Speed'. The history tells us that transportation systems with less-speed are to loose their competitiveness against ones with more-speed in the long run. The major reason for that on supply side comes from the fact that more-speed will reduce cost so long as technical innovation for the morespeed comes up at right t i mi ng. On the other hand an explanation on demand side i s like this; hours for transpor-tation are not to be paid, so the more money you can earn the more eargerly you will try to minimize transportation hours. And so, improvement of income level leads to more preference for more-speed. This statement might be good on econo- mic side, but I feel there remains some other aspects of the matter to be men- tioned. Firm desire for saving the time which people in today' s society have, their phi losophy on TIME which induces the desire, factors in the society which make the people have the philosophy and desire in common. Children grow up in the shower of ' Hurry up! Hurry up!' by their mothers and, being slaves who are being chased by TIME, will keep the dash-posture for the rest of their life. It might be pointed out that most of macro-transportation projects are seeds-oriented and that very few studies have done on the needs. I would be more than happy if I could make any contribution to that desired direction.

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