This study provides an overview of the Asian monsoon and its change as simulated by atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models and high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models, focusing on the seasonal mean circulation and precipitation climatology. After reviewing the drivers of and the elements that affect the monsoon, the ability of those climate models to reproduce the Asian monsoon is assessed. The Asian monsoon is better reproduced in the Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models than in the CMIP3 models, although biases remain. Projected future changes in the Asian monsoon at the end of the 21st century are then reviewed. Overall projections are similar for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models with increases in precipitation, albeit with weakened circulation in the South Asian summer, enhanced circulation and increased precipitation in the East Asian summer, and latitude-dependent changes in the winter monsoon circulation in East Asia. However, differences exist in the projected local changes, leading to uncertainty in projections.

 The environmental conditions for tropical cyclone genesis are examined by numerical experiment. We focus on the case of a non-developing disturbance showed features for tropical cyclone genesis in the Pacific Area Long-term Atmospheric observation for Understanding climate change in 2010 (PALAU2010) observation campaign over the western North Pacific. We clarify the importance of the presence of abundant moisture around the disturbance for continuous convection and demonstrate that the collocation of a mid-level vortex and a low-level vortex, i.e., the persistence of an upright structure of vortices, is important in tropical cyclone genesis. We conduct two numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Advanced Research WRF model in double nested domains with a horizontal grid space of 27 km and 9 km for the outer domain and the inner domain, respectively. The first experiment is based on reanalysis data (a control experiment) and the second includes increased water vapor content over the northwestern dry area of the disturbance. In the control experiment, the disturbance did not develop into a tropical cyclone in spite of the existence of the mid-level and low-level vortices. In contrast, the sensitivity experiment shows that a tropical cyclone was formed from the disturbance with increased water vapor content. The presence of persistent upright vortices was supported by continuous convection until the genesis of the tropical cyclone.

 This study examined the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric water isotopes during the wet season over the Maritime Continent. The model data used were obtained by incorporating stable isotopes into atmospheric general circulation and analytical moisture transport models. These models were used to analyze the climatological variables and rainout processes from various water sources that control isotopic variation. The correlation between the simulated stable isotope ratios and ENSO varied between −0.31 and 0.75 with stronger correlation over most of the Maritime Continent (|r| > 0.36, corresponding to the 95 % significance level) except Java. In general, during La Niña years, the isotopic ratio in water vapor and precipitation is smaller than that during El Niño years by approximately 2 ‰. It was suggested that anomalous water vapor flux, precipitable water, and precipitation, but not evaporation, are responsible for isotopic variation. Furthermore, it was revealed that water vapor flux is convergent (divergent) during La Niña (El Niño) years, which suggests that the strengthened (weakened) Walker Circulation increases (reduces) precipitation, resulting in lighter (heavier) atmospheric water isotopes. The relationship between isotopes and precipitation, or the so-called “amount effect”, is evident over most of the Maritime Continent. Analysis of moisture transport suggested that rainout processes control isotopic variation. An increase in the quantity of water source, expressed in precipitable water, transported from the north and south Maritime Continent during El Niño years, does not result in isotopic depletion attributable to the lack of condensation processes. Moreover, a decrease in the quantity of both water source during La Niña years does not result in isotopic enrichment attributable to intensive rainout. An asymmetric ENSO feature was found in this study, evidenced by the similar contributions of water source from the northern Maritime Continent and the Pacific Ocean during both ENSO phases.