人口学研究
Online ISSN : 2424-2489
Print ISSN : 0386-8311
3 巻
選択された号の論文の59件中1~50を表示しています
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論文
  • 曾田 長宗
    原稿種別: 本文
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 1-7
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    Due to the gradual increase of the levels of living and the development of health and welfare services, the mankind succeeded in decreasing death rates for all age-groups, resulting in the prolongation of life-span as a whole. On the other hand, however, the quantitative accumulation of elderly population is causing a serious anxiety among some groups of people to meet a more difficult situation to solve various problems concerning the cares for the aged. The speaker is not so pessimistic, but expects the qualitative improvement of productive activities of elderly population, along with the prolongation of life. Though the speaker has not yet sufficient data to confirm the improvement of physical and mental activities of the aged population in Japan, he assumed, to make up for the lack of above data, some life table functions, such as the reduction of remaining life-expectancy at age x(e^^○_x), the increase of mortality rate at age x(_1q_x), etc as qualitative indicators of surviving or productive ability for the aged. In Japan before the World War II, people between 15 and 60 years were usually regarded as productive age population. And the life-expectancy for the male at age 60 was 12.6 years in the 6th life tables (compiled for 1935-36). The nearest values of x, corresponding to x(e^^○_x)=12.6 in other life tables, increased clearly in post-war years, as shown in Table 4A-column d. The same phenomenon of prolongation of productive age period is also recognized on the values of _1q_x (Table 4A-e), as well as for the female (Table 4A-g & h). If the borderline age dividing productive and non-productive old-age populations will move toward higher age in the future (Table 5-d), the proportion of non-productive old-age people in percentage of the total (Table 5-e) as well as of the productive population (Table 5-f) will remarkably decrease as compared with the case when the old-age borderline is fixed at the same age, at 65 years for instance (Table 5-b & c). Not to be afraid of enormous quantitative increase of non-productive aged population, the speaker would rather advise to try to find ways to allocate the expanded labour force found among the elderly people for providing more necessary means and services for all the needy people, on a major premise that the total world population should be suppressed within an adequate limit.
  • 畑井 義隆
    原稿種別: 本文
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 8-12
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    This paper aims to analyse the newest feature of industrial structure of Japanese working population. According to a statistical analysis, industrial structure in 1975 was normal and common as compared with the same income level countries - Italy, U. K. , Austria, Finland, New Zealand and France. We should not conclude from such data that Japanese economy has progressed reasonably. Considering the bad situation of farm land, too many workers are located in agricultural sector. Two conditions - the government protective policy for agriculture and the farmers desire to keep their own farmland - made Japanese agriculture have so many working population. In the third industry, the rate of working population of commercial sector is much higher than that of service sector. This rate was especially abnormal for developed country. In my opinion, this was derived from 55 years limit and much retirement allowance in comparison with western developed countries. Such retired employees seem to go to work in commercial sector as self-management workers or enterprisers of small business owing to the lack of complete annuity system.
  • 大淵 寛
    原稿種別: 本文
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 13-17,12
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    The author defines the "population science" as the system of relationships centering the demographic variables and puts the methodological property upon its own research objects. Because of the variety of objects, the cooperation of disciplines is indispensable for the study of population. Considering that the methodological conflict among disciplines has often prevented the development of population science as independent discipline, the author advocated "the object approach", which is practically embodied in three main fields of economic demography, social demography and biodemography. Recently, the field of economic demography has already acquired the citizenship internationally both in name and reality. The endeavor of study in economic demography has mostly been devoted to the inquiry into the economic determinants of fertility. It was since Becker's seminal paper in 1960 that the economic analysis of fertility became a matter of concern of economists. In 1966, Richard Easterlin challenged the early Becker formulation, and then the conflict between two schools following Becker and Easterlin began. The essence of this conflict is the collision of the method of economics and of sociology. However, the ending of conflict is at hand. It is nothing but the result of the fact that the scholars with different methods intensively studied the common object of the determinants of fertility. We should appreciate this success story of "the object approach" which could overcome the difficulties of methodological integration. This is the first step to a synthetic population science.
  • 岡田 実
    原稿種別: 本文
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 18-23
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    Although the origin and causes of birth control of France in the 18th century have been the subject of discussion as long as 200 years, yet there are no satisfactory explanastions presented. This regrettable situation of the subject may be in part explained from that the problems belong to pre-statistic period and thre was a few vital statistics officially published on which rely the true affairs. As for causes of birth control, we may point out the diversity of the explanations of it. But the incessant, laborious researches into the concerned subject made by I.N.E.D., some results of which appeared as "La prevention des naissances dans la famille, ses origines dans les temps modernes", and the analysis by the method of family reconstitution exploited by Louis Henry and others, contributed to throw light upon the subject. In spite of many monographs and diverse explanations the results are far from the settlement of problems, and we are requested further researches. One of the direction of investigations is without doubt that of historical demography, but as A. Sauvy pointed out, a further research into the documents of penitence reserved at churches and also into the private correspondences as those of Mme Sevigne may be useful.
  • 山本 文夫
    原稿種別: 本文
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 24-29
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    On examining 565 life tables of 428 countries from 1840 to 1969, mortality rates by age-group are decreasing as respective 10 years' period passed by. The degree of mortality improvement for females is generally higher than that for males. Then the number surviving at every age is increasing, and the age of l_0 decreasing by 1/4, 1/2 or 3/4. is advancing as respective period passed by. As the result of extension of life expectancy at each age, e^^○_0 extended 1.59 times in the 1960's as compared with that in 1840〜1879. So we can say that the trend of modernized mortality order is progressing in the present century, especially after the World War II. We have set up the hypothesis that the modernization of mortality order advances with developments in socio-cultural fields. The grouping of socio-cultural indices by country is the independent variable (X), and the e^^○_0 by country is the dependent variable (Y). We set up the working hypothesis that a multiple correlation exists between X and Y. We employ multiple regression analysis and path analysis to prove it. On examining both the partial correlation coefficients and the factor loading rates within each exogenous variable, the indices with the most striking influence on Y are found to belong generally to the fields of education, health and urbanization. Thus, we can regard the above hypothesis as having largely been proved by the above data. Our conclusion is that the modernization of mortality order in the countries of 1840-1969 was much influenced by the development of socio-cultural factors.
  • 青木 尚雄, 伊藤 達也, 山本 千鶴子
    原稿種別: 本文
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 30-35
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    This paper presented net nuptiality tables for males and females in Japan, 1975. Table 1 and table 2 are based on a marriage registration data for the year 1975, for numerators of central marriage rates, and on 1975 Population Census data on single males and females for denominators of central marriage rates, and on death rates of single male and female from "Life Tables by Marital Status [1]" of 1975. The definitions and notation of these tables are the same as cited in the previous paper ([3] Itoh and Yamamoto, 1977. "First-Marriage Table for Japanese Women in 1970 and Projections of the Number of Marriages to 2000" Jinko Mondai Kenkyu, Vol. 141, p. 51). According to the tables, 87.43 percent of newly born males and 91.21 percent of newly born females may expect to marry during their whole life. These figures, (e^^○^s_0) the chance at birth that a newly born baby will eventuary marry, are the simplest summarized index derived from net nuptiality tables as is the expectation life at birth in a life table. And they are also important figures when the marital fertility rates based on marriage-duration-specific birth rates are compared with the conventional reproduction rates [22].
  • 重松 峻夫
    原稿種別: 本文
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 36-43
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    In Japan, prefecture life tables were published 11 times by Mizushima and his colleagues since 1921-25. With those life tables geographic variations of longevity and healthiness by age group and their chronological changes in the past fifty years, from 1921-25 to 1974-76, were studied. In 1921-25, the longest longevities were observed for the prefectures in Kyushu and Shikoku districts followed by those in Chugoku and Tokai districts and the shortest in Hokuriku followed by Metropolitan and Tohoku districts. The difference between the longest and the shortest amounted 15 years, 25% of the longest, showing considerably large difference. With modernization of the country, longevity was markedly improved in every prefecture and national equalization of longevity was set forward. In Metropolitan and Hokuriku districts longevity was improved markedly and jumped up to the top most positions in 1974-76 from the bottom in 1921-25. In Kyushu and Shikoku districts which were in the most prominent position in 1921-25 improvement of longevity was poor and they fell down to the inferior positions next to Tohoku district in 1974-76. On the other hand, Tokai and Chugoku districts have kept their dominant positions through the past 50 years and Tohoku district has remained inferior. As a result of those changes, geographical distribution of longevity was much changed and a correlation of the distribution between 1921-25 and 1974-76 became negative, r=-0.1811. In 1974-76, longer longevities were, in general, observed in the socioeconomically developed areas such as Metropolitan districts and industrialized belt along the Pacific Ocean and shorter longevities in the less developed areas remote from the center of the country, while in 1921-25 natural environment appeared to have had stronger relations with the longevity. Geographic variations of healthiness for each age group and influences of mortality by age group, main causes of death, and level of income were also studied.
  • 原稿種別: 文献目録等
    1980 年 3 巻 p. 44-47
    発行日: 1980/04/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
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