人口学研究
Online ISSN : 2424-2489
Print ISSN : 0386-8311
4 巻
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論文
  • 村松 稔
    原稿種別: 本文
    1981 年 4 巻 p. 1-7
    発行日: 1981/05/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    Worldwide concern over population growth has been relaxed somewhat because of the almost definite indication of the decline in population increase, as documented, for example, by the United Nations recently. A most important point that merits attention in this connection is the fact that there are observed diversities in the growth of population and that they are widening rather than narrowing. Diversity is seen between the North and the South; from region to region; and from country to country. Future government policies related to population growth will be more diversified accordingly. On the one hand, the Chinese government efforts to curtail the rate of population increase as quickly as possible represent an example of the most powerful political intervention. A group of other countries such as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, on the other hand, may divert their attention from the growth aspect of population to its internal structure, such as the aging of the population. Still other countries, especially of Southeast Asia, will continue their efforts for population control, but the policies they adopt would, of necessity, be much milder than the Chinese example. To what extent they can achieve success depends on a variety of factors, but the degree to which sterilization and induced abortion are resorted to is an important determinant. Almost all developed countries have an entirely opposite concern. The decline in the birth rate is a major issue, and it is quite certain that governments will strengthen social security programs specifically designed for the encouragement of childbirths. Whether they will prove highly effective, however, remains questionable. Restrictions on abortion, sterilization and contraception may, under some circumstances, be proposed as a necessity.
  • 江見 康一
    原稿種別: 本文
    1981 年 4 巻 p. 9-12
    発行日: 1981/05/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    In Japan, the inter-regional movement of population which has flowed from the rural areas to urban districts was most active during 1960's. The central part of such movement was young people newly entering to the labor forces which compose of 15-24 age class in local agricultural prefectures. They were mainly absorbed to manufacturing industries and the related business in urban big cities such as Tokyo and Ohsaka and their neighboring prefectures. There they have worked to increase manufacturing production and then contributed to promote the economic growth in the urban prefectures concerned. On the other hand, such population movement has naturally raised the ratio of the aged to the total population in the rural prefectures and then the burden for the young to support the aged there would be heavier if there is no adjusting measures to equalize the income differentials in inter-prefectures. To decrease such income differentials and to maintain the minimum standard of people's life in nationwide, it is necessary to redistribute: taxes imposed more in relatively rich industrial prefectures to the low income agricultural prefectures as transfers through the central fiscal system. This can be observed in the subsidies from the central to the local government and the items of public welfare appeared in local government expenditure. The author particulaly picked up two prefectures of Shimane and Saitama as the sample of agricultural-rural and industrial-urban type of prefectures respectively and analysed the effects of population movement from the viewpoint of social security.
  • 小泉 明
    原稿種別: 本文
    1981 年 4 巻 p. 13-16
    発行日: 1981/05/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    In order to estimate future trend of needs and demands for health and medical care, it is necessary to predict both population age structure and morbidity rates by age classes. According to Patient Survey conducted by Ministry of Health and Welfare of the Japanese Government, use of medical care increased remarkably in Japan in the earlier half of 1970's particularly among the aged. A similar trend was also shown in morbidity prevalence rate by National Health Survey. Man's total environment including facilities of health and medical care services should be understood through the concept of habitat which is peculiar to ecology. In this respect, it is indicated that man's habitat differs widely from those of other organisms and has gone through tremendous changes. The habitat of modern man meets various requirements and satisfies needs. The man-made part of man's environment is, however, now too highly developed and the increase of expedience has become a handicap. Modern man's habitat should be such environment that protect human survival from various types of risk, whether they come from nature or from man himself.
  • 小林 和正
    原稿種別: 本文
    1981 年 4 巻 p. 17-22
    発行日: 1981/05/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    Even in the case that the population census is taken quite regularly, for instance, at a 5-year interval, the life table related to the census is usually prepared for a period of one year or more centering around the census date. Such a life table, however, cannot be conveniently used for analyzing the intercensal population changes. The usual intention of preparing the life table is to study mortality and longevity rather than to use for analyzing the intercensal population changes. This paper aims at constructing a certain type of double increment-decrement table which will be suited to analyze intercensal mortality and migration experiences. Use was made of the two successive population censuses at a five-year interval from 1970 to 1975 for Kyoto city. The basic techniques are as follows. Data are used on the populations at the both censuses by sex and single years of age, annual deaths by sex and single years age, infant deaths by sex and months of age, and births by sex. On the basis of these data, the number of deaths and net-migration volume for each census cohort are estimated on an annual basis, which are then compiled into cross-sectional figures of deaths and net-migration by single years of age for the intercensal period. These steps produce independent mortality and net-migration tables, for the intercensal period, which can be then converted to interdependent tables. The survival ratios computed by _5L_<x+5>/_5L_x from the interdependent tables have been found to generally fit good the actual census survival ratios.
  • Atsushi Otomo
    原稿種別: 本文
    1981 年 4 巻 p. 23-28
    発行日: 1981/05/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    Observing the in-and out-migration rates by age groups for the minor administrative areas of Tokyo metropoltan area based on the data of 1970 population censns, the increase in the inmigration rate at the elderly ages is found in the suburban area. Also, as the upswing in the outmigration rate at the same age groups is observed in the metropolitan core area, it is implied that the increase in the inmigration rate at the elderly ages in the suburban area was caused mainly by outmigration of elderly people from the metropolitan core. In Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan areas the same mobility patterns by age as observed in Tokyo metropolitan area are recognized in a less extent. Considering the difference in the levels of metropolitanization between the metropolitan areas, it may be concluded that the propensity of upswing in the migration rates at the elderly ages in the metropolitan areas has been rising since 1970. Also, it can be said that the mobility of elderly population in the metropolitan areas is influenced greatly by the other reasons than environmental and occupational as well as by the reason of housing.
  • 阿藤 誠
    原稿種別: 本文
    1981 年 4 巻 p. 29-36
    発行日: 1981/05/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    Drawing on the data from the Seventh Japanese National Fertility Survey, held by the Institute of Population Problems, JMHW, in 1977, multiple classification analysis (MCA) was done for the number of children ever born (NCEB) of currently married women to identify the social determinants of marital fertility in the contemporary Japan. Major findings are as follows: (1) Among all the explanatory variables included in our MCA model, spouses' age at marriage has the largest explanatory power. The proportion of the total variance of NCEB explained by social variables is relatively small. (2) Although wife's work before marriage did not have any significant relation to NCEB, wife's work in early reproductive years has the largest negative effect on NCEB among social variables. This relationship holds even after controlling for fecundity status. (3) Such variables as wife's educaiton, the nature of place of residence and husband's occupation, have a small but systematic effect on NCEB even after MCA adjustment. Higher education, more urbanized place of residence and husband's status as an employee, are associated with lower NCEB. (4) Among such variables relevent to the family system as type of marriage, spouses' number of siblings and birth order, and locality type, only locality type is significantly associated with NCEB. Married couples who cohabit with their parents at marriage have higher fertility than those who do not. (5) wife's sex-role norms and the type of conjugal role relationship have been regarded by some scholars as an important determinant of fertility. This hypothesis does not hold for Japan: Highly segregated role relationship between husband and wife coexists with low fertility.
  • 原稿種別: 文献目録等
    1981 年 4 巻 p. 37-40
    発行日: 1981/05/21
    公開日: 2017/09/12
    ジャーナル フリー
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