Conventional wisdom today follows Malthus in viewing the economic effects of population growth negatively. However Simon [1977] has challenged this view, predicting that population growth will have a positive effect on per capita income, at least in the long run. The researches of Minami-Ono [1971, 72, 75] and later works of Kelley-Williamson [1974] support this optimistic view. On the contrary, the works of Ogawa-Suits [1982] and the earlier works of Kelley-Williamson [1971] showed population to have large negative effects. In this paper an attempt is made to investigate these opposite views by using a general equilibrium growth accounting and some simulation techniques. Considering per capita income growth, it is clear that the direct contribution of population growth is negative while that of labor growth is positive. Less obvious are the positive indirect contribution of population and labor growth through the influences of population and labor on the rate of technical change in either sector. We measured the total contribution (direct contribution 4- indirect contribution) of population cum labor on per capita income by using a two sector growth accounting model. The calculated result shows that the total contribution of population cum labor growth tended to be negative in the decades 1880-1930 and positive in the decades 1930-70, with the exception of 1940-50. However, over the total period (1880-1970) population cum labor growth on average tended to make a positive contribution to per capita income growth. The research of Ogawa-Suits covers the period of 1885-1920, the one of Minami-Ono includes the period of 1930's which has a large positive population effect. This would be one of the reasons why we get these two opposite opinions for Japanese economic development. Another reason why Minami-Ono and Kelley-Williamson have such an optimistic view may come from the constant labor participation rates (i. e., they treat population and labor as identical).
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