In recent years, Butz and Ward have demonstrated, by using a model derived from the 'new home economics', that both men's and women's current wages operate independently in explaining fertility movements in the United States. Their empirical results indicate that the U. S. baby boom of the 1950s can be explained as a response to rising male income, whereas the baby bust of the 1960s was due primarily to increases in female wages. Subsequently, the Butz-Ward version of the new home economics model of fertility has been applied to other industrialized countries. Despite the increasing number of empirical studies based on the Butz-Ward model, a few crucial flaws have been pointed out recently. In the present study, therefore, we (i) explore alternatives to the Butz-Ward model designed to overcome its theoretical and technical weaknesses, and (ii) test the applicability of each alternative to the context of contemporary Japan. To achieve these objectives, we first examine the relevance of the Butz-Ward model to Japan, using annual time-series data over the period 1963-1984. The regression results show that their model fits the Japanese data very well. Then, we discuss some of the major difficulties of the Butz-Ward model, by heavily drawing upon two recent studies. Taking the weaknesses of their model into consideration, we have proposed five alternative specifications in hopes of improving the Butz-Ward model. Although each of them reflects the spirit of the Butz-Ward model to a different degree, all of them have produced results consistent with the hypotheses, and can predict the recent trend of Japanese fertility very efficiently.

View full abstract

This paper has an attempt to analyze the fertility differentials in south India in terms of economic and social development. Regional variation of fertility comes from the multiplicity of economic, social and cultural factors. Among these factors, cultural factors have not been successful to make quantification. At the first stage, therefore, fur the analysis, the geographical areas which have homogeneous cultural conditions are selected. The subjected areas here are four southern states, Andra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu which are based on the Dravidian kinship organization. First, we examined this region by the factor analysis, using 33 variables concerning the indicators of demographic structure of labour force, agricultural structure, education, medical care and religion. Five factors are extracted by this analysis. The first factor is labelled labour force characteristics, the second is level of social development, the third is family structure, the fourth is agricultural characteristics, and the fifth is urbanity. From these results the characteristics of this region are interpreted as that the industrial structure is of characteristic of labour intensive agriculture. We can also observe a higher rate of labour force participation of children and women in the agricultural field and most of them are less-educated. Secondly, we discuss the influences of such regional characteristics on the fertility differentials. Next analysis has been made by regression analysis, using variables which are extracted by the factor analysis. From the first factor a variable of child labour is selected. From the second, female literacy rate and population per doctor are selected. From the third, proportion of never married women is selected; from the fourth, population density per cultivated land ; from the fifth, the labour force participation rate in the primary industry and proportion of urban population. Taking the above indicators as independent variables, the regression equation for the child-woman ratio is estimated. In our model, 48.4% of the total variance in the child-woman ratio in the four states is explained. Among variables, child labour and population density per cultivated land are statistically significant. The estimated result shows that the necessity of labour force in agricultural sector makes the fertility rate higher. Thirdly, we estimate the regression equation including only variables those which were statistically significant in our model. They are child labour and population per cultivated land. Adding to these variables the level of education is included. Our model cannot explain the regional variances of child-woman ratio for Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In Andra Pradesh, the necessity of child labour in agricultural field makes fertility higher of the cause of high fertility. In Karnataka, educational level has a positive effect on the fertility decline.

View full abstract

Cohort mortalities for all causes, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular diseases and heart diseases were calculated based on data from vital statistics reports 1947-1982 and period and cohort life tables covering the years 1891-1982 recently published by Nanjo, and Kobayashi, K. Number of deaths by single year of age were interpolated by application of Cubic or Rational Spline interpolation method to number of deaths by 5 year age group drawn from vital statistics reports. Ratios of individual cause to all causes in each age were calculated and applied to mortality matrix derived from Nanjo-Kobayashi's life tables. Age-specific period and cohort mortality rates for each cause were calculated from cause-specific mortality matrix as mentioned in the text. Trends and age patterns of cohort mortalities and ratios of mortalities in successive cohort and age group were investigated. In age patterns of cohort mortalities, cohort phenomena, defined as that age-specific cohort mortality rates for successive cohort went down (or rose up) cohort by cohort without any crossing of mortality curve, were observed for all causes in both sexes and for heart diseases in female. For others, cohort phenomena were not or only partially observed. Ratios of cohort mortalities of successive cohorts in the same ages were less than unity in almost all age groups for all the causes investigated and have gradually been levelling off in the recent years. Ratios of cohort mortalities of successive age in the same cohort group which indicate variations of mortalities with age. The ratios are in principle more than unity because mortalities increase with age. Age patterns and levels of the ratios are different for each causes and for age groups indicating the differential age effects by cause and by age. This type of cohort analysis would cast a light from different angle on mortality study and deserved accumulation of data for the purpose.

View full abstract

Against the demographic studies of rural Japan which have been developped by using shumon-aratamecho or kako-cho, historical study on urban population has less developped because of the lack of proper historical materials. In an atempt to repair this deficiency, the author endeavours to develop to use different type of material from shumon-aratamecho, that is, furedome (a collection of ordinances) issued by Kyoto Commissioners in the 18th century. The results obtained are as follows: 1) The age distribution of lost children concentrates in age 3 or 4 ranging from 2 to 8. Lost children are found frequently in decades of high price of rice; on the contrary, they are scarce when rice is cheep. This very high correlation between the number of lost child and the price of rice suggests that lost children recorded are no more than abandoned children. It also supports this outlook that many of lost children are reported to be poorly dressed. 2) More than a third of missing persons are below age 15, and about a fifth are over 60. The fact that a half of the youth are servants reflects the labor composition in pre-modern Kyoto and many of them are suspected to escape from their employers by reson of pains of working. Among the missing persons those who have any phisical or mental abnormality are often recorded. The feebleminded are included mainly below age 25, mentaly deranged persons from age 26 to 60, and over 60, about a half are described as being senile. 3) That the frequency of lost children and missing persons became a social problem in the 18th century related to the occurence of a demographic transition. Population growth is considered to be stopped mainly by the reduction of fertility rather than the rise of mortality and abandoning children is regarded as one of the means to limit family size such as induced abortion and infanticide. At the same time the aging of society resulted from the transition and the problem of older people wandering off due to absentmindedness emerged.

View full abstract

The object of this paper is to follow up and introduce the problems on the current population policy of China, specially regulation of familly planning. In China, too rapid an increace in population infavorably affects their efforts to bring about the four modernization. The census in 1982 has attracted worldwide attention because it is the largest census ever undertaken and is expected to provide answers to many of the long unanswered questions about China's population. The one-child population policy adopted in China in 1979 has evoked a demographic revolution which will greatly modify and reshape the age and sex compositions and growth tempo of the world's largest population in the coming decades. The powerful impact of this birth control policy, paralleled and reinforced by an ongoing modernization program, also has begun to generate rapid and profound change. The government of China declare that China is aiming to limit its population to 1,200 million by the year 2000, but perphaps this target is very difficult to attain. The population will be more than 1,250 million by then. Population problems in China is faced with not only this control of a large number, but also agricultural superfluous employees and construction of small towns, aging population and reformation of annuity system.

View full abstract

[in Japanese]

View full abstract