Liver cancer or hepatic cancer is a predominant carcinoma in developing country, claiming 60,000 deaths each year worldwide. In Taiwan, it has been on the top, in terms of the death cause in carcinoma with 10,000 deaths each year. In general, hepatocellular carcinoma is raised from two mechanisms: chromosomal instability and micro-satellite instability. However, pediatric hepatic carcinoma can be caused directly by the mutation of certain gene. Based on various biological studies, we adjust the stochastic and state space model under consideration of embryo stage. The generalized Bayesian approach is developed to estimate the parameters. We use this model to fit and analyze Taiwan liver cancer data acquired from Bureau of National Health and Insurance. Our results indicate that this model provides the accurate prediction of liver cancer cases and the development of multiple pathways for hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan. Consequently, this model provides useful guidance to monitor future cancer cases.
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