In order to better understand the direction of technological development for planning R&D, it is necessary for governments and enterprises to conduct surveys. The methods employed in these surveys involve those associated with technology forecasting. Approximately every five years since 1971, including the 1987 survey used in this study, the Science and Technology Agency has conducted Technology Forecast Surveys. To put the results of the survey to practical use and to conduct more effective Technology Forecast Surveys in the future, it is also necessary to examine the results in terms of the methodology and timing of the survey.In this article the author attempts an analysis of the answer structure using results based on the Technology Forecast Survey which was commissioned by the Science and Technology Agency. These results take into accounts the following factors: forecast reliability, relation between realization time and attributes of respondents, comparison between optimistic and pessimistic respondents and degree of convergent effectiveness based on questionnaire repetition.

View full abstract

Since the early 1970's technology assessment has been applied to various new technologies [1, 2], with the range of assessments expanding from advanced technologies to social developments [3, 4, 5, 7]. This paper reviews an assessment conducted more than a decade ago, in 1974, on "informationalization" in Japan [6]. The main objectives of the assessment were to understand the complicated changes in the use of information in Japanese society, to evaluate the expected social and individual impacts of "informationalization", and to recommend appropriate policies.The fundamental approach of the study was based on the method of technology assessment, but it introduced some new methodological trials. The procedures that were applied were characterized in a comprehensive evaluation with an impact matrix assessment and a numerical analysis procedure, in which a "policy simulation" technique was applied. The complete report was submitted in 1974 [6], and a summary was published at a conference held in Honolulu in 1976 [3]. This paper now reviews the results of the assessment study and discusses the methodology employed with a view to future applications of the techniques.

View full abstract

The Japanese economy is rapidly changing, and as a consequence small and medium-sized enterprises are having to face new hardships. Firstly there is the rapid change in the international economic environment. The large appreciation of the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar since the autumn of 1985 has accelerated demands by parent companies to their subcontractors to reduce costs. The volume of production has often decreased due to the shift of production sites to foreign countries and to the voluntary restraint of exports by the parent companies. To effectively cope with these circumstances, investment in automation equipment and labor-saving production processes is widely required as an urgent countermeasure in small and medium-sized enterprises. Secondly, new trends in technological innovation, such as that found in microelectronics, are quite important. The introduction of new technologies and information equipment will enable small and medium-sized enterprises to develop new products and services. The recent trends in the diversification of customer needs and personal tastes are also accelerating this change and enhancing the comparative advantage of the small and medium-sized enterprises as they are highly mobile and capable of small sharp turns.The purpose of this paper is to clarify the environment in which small and medium-sized enterprises operate in Japan, and to search for appropriate directions, in technology development and research. In addition, technological policies directed toward small and medium-sized enterprises are extensively reviewed. Of particular interest is the "technology development project" in the small business corporation, which aims to develop new machinery and to spread its products across related business circles. This article also discusses methods of improving these projects in the various stages of development, based on the results of a questionnaire. Finally, an new policy concept is proposed that emphasizes the essential merits of the small and medium-sized enterprises with a view toward improving their position relative to large enterprises.

View full abstract