In this study, we calculated an estimated value of the number of long-term care workers required in the future, and as a result, the required number of care workers will start to decrease around 2030, but in the working-age population as a whole. It was suggested that the proportion of care workers would continue to increase. The current policy for securing human resources in the field of long-term care emphasizes securing the number of care workers on the premise that a large shortage of human resources will occur in the future. There is room for reconsideration. In addition, pushing the number to the forefront carries the risk of making it difficult to maintain the quality and expertise of care work. In order to secure numbers and maintain and improve quality at the same time, it is necessary to distinguish between fluid human resources (foreign workers based on the technical intern training system and those who have completed the training for life support workers, etc.) and universal human resources (qualified persons such as foreign workers and certified care workers working in Japan with status of residence), and take necessary measures for each.
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