Journal of Wind Engineering
Online ISSN : 1349-340X
Print ISSN : 1349-3507
ISSN-L : 1349-340X
Volume 37 , Issue 4
[No. 133]
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Technical Paper
  • Takeshi ISHIHARA, Atsushi YAMAGUCHI
    Type: Technical Paper
    2012 Volume 37 Issue 4 Pages 105-116
    Published: October 31, 2012
    Released: April 11, 2013
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    The extreme wind speed at an offshore location is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) method. The Gumbel distribution can successfully express the annual maximum wind speed of extratropical cyclone. On the other hand, the analytical probability distribution underestimates annual maximum wind speed of tropical cyclone. In the mixed climate like Japan, the extreme wind speed estimated from the combined probability distribution obtained by MCP and MCS methods agrees well with the observed data as compared to the combined probability distribution obtained by the MCP Method only. The uncertainty of extreme wind speed due to limited observation period of wind speed and pressure is also evaluated by the Gumbel theory and Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, it is found that the uncertainty of 50-year recurrence wind speed obtained by MCS method is considerably smaller than that obtained by MCP method in the mixed climate.
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