Objective. The author presented previously an assumption about HCV kinetics as follows; when HCV's growth obeys Gompertzian model and its decay by interferon (IFN) occurs in an exponential-decay manner, decrease of HCV can be expressed as lnH (t) =lnG
max- (D
0/k) + (D
0/k) exp (-kt), where lnH (t) is a logarithm of HCV-viral load, lnGmax is a logarithm of baseline viral load, D
0 is an initial deceleration rate, k is a dumping constant of the deceleration rate, and t is time. The objective of this study is to verify the assumption by using actual clinical data.
Method. Patients with chronic hepatitis C were enrolled to this study. Patients underwent injection of beta-IFN for 2 weeks. HCV-viral load of the baseline, 1/2 week, 1 week, and 2 weeks were assessed by TaqMan method.
Results. The actual viral load of 2 weeks was lower than the calculated value. When HCV obeys Gomp-Ex model, that is, replication is exponential under a threshold but obeys Gompertzian model above the threshold, the calculated value is well matched with actual value and the threshold is 3.5 log/m
l.
Conclusion. Eventually, HCV kinetics by Gomp-Ex model was analogous to conventional two-phase model. The advantage of the present model is that the long-term prognosis can be estimated by only a 3-point measurement of the viral load in the first week. When a theoretical minimal value is below the threshold (3.5 log/m
l), we can achieve the eradication of HCV in a long-term.
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