Frictional parameters at the plate interface during an earthquake generation cycle can be estimated from a model based on laboratory-derived rate- and state-dependent friction laws by using sequential importance sampling (SIS, a type of particle filter) to develop a quantitative model for forecasting earthquakes. We can use daily synthetic afterslip data for one year from the day after an earthquake to accurately determine steady state velocity dependence (a-b)σ, but not characteristic slip distance d
c. However, if we use data for one day from the commencement of afterslip, with high time resolution, dc can also be determined accurately if noise levels are low enough. When d
c is small, the information that allows determination of d
c is included only in the data within one day after an earthquake. Although at high time resolution noise levels are high and comparable in amplitude to the signal, advances in GPS technology will decrease noise levels and allow d
c to be determined more accurately.
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