年報政治学

はじめに

小林良彰

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 3-5
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_3

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衆議院総選挙候補者の政策位置

谷口将紀

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 11-24,249
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_11

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以上本稿は, 2003年の総選挙時点での衆議院議員各候補者の政策位置を, 東京大学・朝日新聞社共同政治家調査データを用いて推定, 分析した。カテゴリカル主成分分析に投入した20種類の争点態度は, ひとつの「保守-リベラル」対立軸に要約できる。各党候補は, 保守からリベラルに向かって, 自民党, 民主党, 公明党, 社民党, 共産党という順番に並んでいる。同一選挙区内における自民, 民主候補の相対的位置についても, 自民=保守, 民主=リベラルという差が認められる。確かに民主党のオブジェクトスコアの分散は大きく, 冷戦下のような世界観に至る違いを自民-民主両党に期待するのは無理だが, さりとて自民党と民主党を双子の兄弟に準えるのは過言であろう。
各候補者の政策位置を決定する要因としては, 前述の所属政党に加えて, 有権者の選好や候補者の属性が影響力を持っている。選挙結果に対する政策位置の影響に関しては, とくに民主党候補について, 政策位置が保守的 (リベラル) になるほど, 得票率が高く (低く) なることが明らかになった。候補者が所属政党による政策の違いを保ちながら, 個人的信条や選挙民の選好に合わせて自らの政策位置を調整することによって, 同一党内でもある程度の政策の多元性が存在する「輪ゴム効果」が, 日本の政党にも観察され始めたようだ。

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無党派知事下の地方政府における政策選択

1990年代以降における知事要因と議会要因

曽我謙悟, 待鳥聡史

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 25-46,249
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_25

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We have seen an “independent wave” in prefectural politics with a string of electoral victories by non-partisan gubernational candidates since the early 1990s, though more prefectures still have governors with party affiliations. Our research interest in this article has been to determine how and to what extent this new phenomenon has led to policy changes. Also, we have examined the roles of legislatures because Japanese prefectural government has adopted a dual representation system.
Our findings can be summarized as following: First, the size of government has appeared to be the focus of Japanese local politics since the 1990s. The chief executives face a policy choice between big government with local public loans or small government with fiscal conservatism. While independent governors tend to prefer fiscal conservatism, conservative governors try to maintain big government. Second, pork-barrel programs are the focus of expenditure policymaking. Legislators have an effect in this regard.

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国民の対外意識に及ぼすマスメディアの影響

テレビニュースの内容分析とパネル調査から

河野武司

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 69-86,250
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_69

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This article examines the impact of television news on viewers' attitudes. Specifically, I investigate the influence of US-related news on the Japanese people's sense of trust toward the U. S.. My hypothesis is that the people who mainly watch TV programs that contain more anti-U. S. reporting tend to become less trustful of the U. S. over time than those who mainly watch programs that contain less anti-U. S. news. In addition, I test the claim that those who mainly watch TV program containing neutral reporting on the U. S. are less likely to change the level of their trust toward U. S. over time. I test these hypotheses using the content analysis of TV news programs and the panel surveys conducted in November 2003 and August 2004.
My findings are the following. First, the people who regularly watch the TV-Asahi's “Hodo Station, ” which contains relatively larger ratio of anti-U. S. news than other stations' reporting, become less trustful of the U. S. over time. Second, the people who regularly watch the NHK's “News 10, ” which has more neutral reporting about the U. S., are less likely to change the level of trust toward U. S. over time as a whole.

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市民社会におけるインターネットと選挙

2004年参院選候補者ウェブサイトの分析

岡本哲和

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 87-104,251
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_87

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate what type of website candidates are putting up and what factors affect the contents of their websites using the data on the 2004 Upper House Election in Japan. With content analysis of 234 candidates' websites, I have produced an index to measure the degree of “sophisticated-ness” of each website drawing mainly on the following components: (1) interactive-ness (2) information provision (3) presentation (4) accessibility. Binomial negative regression was employed as statistical model to estimate the impacts of various factors, including party affiliation, status of candidates, electoral system, and socioeconomic status of the candidates, on their websites' sophisticated-ness. My findings reveal that party affiliation and incumbency are strong predictors of websites' sophisticated-ness, and candidates from major parties or those seeking re-election are more likely to go online and have more sophisticated websites. Besides, there is a possibility that electoral system can affect the Internet use of candidates. I conclude by suggesting that the process of “normalization”, the fact that cyberspace reflects the real world, would be inevitable in Japanese politics.

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イシュー・セイリアンスと政策変化

ゲーム理論的パースペクティブの有用性

松田憲忠

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 105-126,251
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_105

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One of the conventional wisdoms in affluent democracies says that a large policy change is very unlikely to occur. Despite this conventional wisdom, a fundamental policy reform has sometimes been successfully carried out in those countries. How can such a successful policy change be explained? Recently numerous attempts have been made to identify factors responsible for the policy change. As one critical factor, some emphasize “issue salience”; the more salient an issue, the more likely a policy change. How the high salience of an issue leads to a large policy change, however, has not been fully examined. This article states that a legislator's perception of issue salience matters; one of the critical conditions for a large policy change is that legislators perceive a particular issue as highly salient. When estimating the issue salience and determining their policy stance, legislators confront serious uncertainty. This article presents some game-theoretical models dealing with legislators' interaction under uncertainty, and demonstrates that a game-theoretical perspective contributes to understanding the relationship between issue salience and policy change.

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アメリカン・システムの時代における連邦制の実態

櫛田久代

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 127-145,252
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_127

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The 19th century U. S. federal system, as a whole, has been described as dual federalism, within which the relationship between the federal government and state governments tended to be antagonistic or competitive. However, a cooperative relationship across states between these two governments with respect to specific national policies had been operating in the early republic. The well known Henry Clay's American System, which formulated an integrated national economic program in the 1820s, may be used to illustrate this relationship. The practical operation of the federal system has undergone many changes over time and in relation to policy changes. This paper analyzes the national internal improvement policies under the General Survey Act of 1824, which constituted a major element of the American System, and examines the reality of the American federal system in the era of the American System of the 1820s. By way of conclusion, it argues that the policies of the American System did not necessarily generate centripetal force empowering the federal government but, rather, that they strengthened competition between states, and intensified sectionalism, with the realignment of the modern party system.

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民主制と独裁制の生存条件

離散時間型生存分析による体制別危険因子の再検証

三上了

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 146-169,252
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_146

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When and why does breakdown of political systems occur? Recent empirical works on regime changes have failed to address this question properly because their frameworks conventionally treat onset and outcome of political transitions as the same problem.
Conceptualizing the dependent variable more precisely and using an original data set that covers all system transformations in the 20th century, this paper reexamines the various hypotheses concerning sustainability of political systems. The factors analyzed here include: development level, resource dependence, economic inequality, social fractionalization, position in the world system, inflation, and economic recession.
The results indicate that although some factors have a common destabilizing effect, other factors act in the opposite direction between the two types of regime at risk. The regression models also reveal that dictatorships are more vulnerable to situational changes whereas democracies are immune to these threats: their survival depends more on the structural differences instead.

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知事選投票率からみた広域政府の規模のあり方に関する研究

野田遊

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 170-194,253
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_170

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There are two factors that affect the level of political participation in relation to local government size. One is the closeness of local government to residents and the other is a degree of people's expectation towards the capacity of local government to deal with local or regional affairs. This article focuses on the second factor and examines the correlations between voter turnouts and the scale of local/regional government such as prefectures based on a survey of residents and a statistical analysis. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: Firstly, the survey confirms that people who are better informed about the provision of public service by a prefecture tend to have more confidence in the policy performance of a regional government. Secondly, those with higher expectations towards regional government are more likely to vote. Thirdly, those residing in prefectures with a higher degree of fiscal concentration (which is a measure of a prefecture's relative governance capacity) have greater expectations towards their respective local governments. Finally, the degree of fiscal concentration has positive correlations with voter turnouts. These findings point towards an issue of improving problem-solving capacities of local governments through the concentration of resource at a higher level of governance, although this must be considered in the context of an overall decentralization and devolutionary trend.

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北朝鮮における政軍関係

なぜ北朝鮮の軍人はクーデターを起こさなかったのか?

宮本悟

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 195-215,253
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_195

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For a long time, a majority of people have thought that the military would attempt a coup d'etat in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea due to the widespread economic deterioration in the past, and the fact that the domestic economy has seen some recent improvement makes this event more unlikely at present.
Why haven't a group of officers within the Korean People's Army attempted a coup d'etat? In this research, I provide three key reasons that explain why, even during three crisis periods involving major politico-military purges, this has not happened.
Chiefly these were: entrenched clique competition in the military; the existence of an organization that can oppose the armed forces; and a systemic and purposeful division of the military. I have confirmed through this research that the system that has divided the military still exists in the army, a system controlled effectively by a senior commissar. Therefore, this research concludes that the possibility of a coup d'etat occurring is low even in the present D. P. R. K.

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韓国の選挙運動と政治的アクター

春木育美

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 216-235,254
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_216

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By using a participant observation approach, this study attempts to examine a vote-gathering mechanism for parliamentary elections in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to inquire from a rational choice perspective on political behavior, as to what a candidate offers in order to establish her electoral base and how voters are organized into a firm support group for the candidate.
In South Korea, electoral mobilization usually takes a form of “regionalism” in which a voter votes for the candidate who comes from the region that the voter comes from. This study shows that as a consequence of strategic calculation of the actors involved in electoral campaigning, regionalism has evolved into a system of give-and-take connections between the candidate and her supporters. In addition to the electoral campaigners who seek benefits through regional ties, this study sheds new light on the fact that electoral campaigning relies heavily on those who derive gains from supporting the candidate, independent of their regional tie with the candidate.

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2004年度日本政治学会研究会日程

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 236-238
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_236

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2005年度日本政治学会研究会日程

2005 年 56 巻 2 号 p. 239-243
発行日: 2005年
公開日: 2010/04/30

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7218/nenpouseijigaku1953.56.2_239

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