年報政治学
Online ISSN : 1884-3921
Print ISSN : 0549-4192
ISSN-L : 0549-4192
56 巻 , 1 号
選択された号の論文の15件中1~15を表示しています
  • 小林 良彰
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 3-5
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 小選挙区比例代表並立制導入に伴う投票行動の変化と持続
    小林 良彰
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 11-35,349
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    Since the electoral reform a decade ago, three elections to the House of Representatives have been held. At the time of the reform, the problems of political funding and widespread corruption were commonly attributed to the mediumsized constituency system. It was then argued that the introduction of the dual system, consisting of the small constituency and proportional representation systems, would counter these problems by stimulating policy debates. This study examines the validity of these claims by comparing the patterns of voting behavior at elections held under the new and old systems. The analysis empirically tests five hypotheses built around the following points: 1. The range of candidates' policy positions, 2. The distance between candidates' issue positions and voters' ideal points, 3. Whether issue voting has increased/decreased? 4. Correspondence between subsidies to a constituency and the number of votes gained, 5. Correspondence between subsidies and the number of votes gained at House of Councilors elections. The results of this study show that the dual system has not brought about the expected changes in voting behavior. It also suggests that the problems regarding political funding did not originate in the medium-sized constituency system but still persist under the new system.
  • 期待の政治のひとつの帰結と有権者
    池田 謙一
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 36-65,349
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    In the years following the huge popularity of the early Koizumi Cabinet, national elections have been held in 2003 (House of Representatives) and in 2004 (House of Councilors). Using survey data from the 2001 House of Councilors Election—which was held in the height of Koizumi's popularity—as a reference point, this paper investigates the role of prospective and retrospective perceptions toward the Koizumi cabinet on voting behavior by analyzing data from the Japan Election Study 3, a nation-wide panel survey conducted from 2001 to 2005. The findings show that the incumbent LDP party lost shares due to a decline in prospective voting, which was insufficiently supplemented by positive retrospective voting. Further analyses reveal that economic perception was the main culprit for this change. Mass media was indirectly influential on this process through its initial perception of hope for reform and warm feelings toward Koizumi.
  • 平野 浩
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 66-87,350
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    This article examines how the Japanese electorates' voting behavior changed between the 2001 and the 2004 Upper House elections under the Koizumi Cabinet, by looking at the role of retrospective evaluations of the cabinet, based on the JES III data.
    The results of the analysis revealed that the effects of retrospective evaluations on the voting behavior increased from 2001 to 2004. We also found that the impacts of the evaluation of the Cabinet's foreign policy were clear and consistent through the elections; however the evaluation of the Cabinet's economic performance exerted much weaker influences. The disbanding of the “Koizumi Coalition” is also discussed.
  • 山田 真裕
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 88-105,350
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    In the 2004 House of Councilors (HC) election, we observed a nation-wide swing of votes which caused a major setback for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This was a drastic swing compared with the 2001 HC election. In order to make clear the factors underlying this swing, this study analyzes data from the Asahi Shinbun- University of Tokyo joint survey. Our hypothesis is that the decline of the LDP in the 2004 election was caused by the waning of Koizumi's “coattail effect”.
    The results of the analysis show that the swing was brought about by the voters' negative evaluation of Koizumi cabinet or Koizumi himself, the party, and other issues such as constitutional reform or the pension system. The study also indicates that there is an evaluation gap between the performances of the LDP and Prime Minister Koizumi, and that the positive evaluation of the latter did not contribute to votes to the former. Moreover, votes for the LDP under the Proportional Representation system in the 2004 HC election included supporters for the so-called “Teikou Seiryoku-resistance force” within the LDP.
    The leadership of Koizumi is often characterized as a variation of populism, with his mass-appealing attitude on the media and his tendency to reduce political issues down to oversimplified, dualistic categories. However, the results of this study suggest that many voters made their voting choices based on the evaluation of the Koizumi government rather than being blindly affected by populist tactics.
  • JEDS96データの分析
    白崎 護
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 106-134,351
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    This article examines the influence of personal communication and the media on partisanship and voting behavior in the 1996 general election based on an analysis of the JEDS96 survey data.
    Among the main constituents of social network including spouses, other family members, colleagues, and friends, the study finds that spouses' influence is by far the greatest. The influence of colleagues and friends is negligible unless they have a frequent political conversation with voters. In contrast, spouses and other family members influence on the voters regardless of the frequency of political talks.
    As for the role of the media, the main source of influence for the Liberal Democratic Party supporters came from television news, whereas those who supported the New Frontier Party were influenced by TV commercials. This implies that the LDP was unable to make effective use of mass media campaigns through election broadcasts or commercials, while the New Frontier Party's reliance on commercials means that substantial political messages were overshadowed by the presentation of superficial images.
    Lastly, even if voters got something good impression about a party from mass media, voters without political talks would not come to support the party.
  • 90年代における衆議院選挙投票率低下の分析
    三船 毅
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 135-160,351
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    This paper uses individual-level data to examine the cause of the sudden decline in turnout in House of Representatives elections in the 1990s.
    The turnout rate remained flat from 1972 to 1990, but between 1990 and 1996 fell rapidly. In fact, individual-level data show that the electorate's political awareness changed markedly.
    The analysis utilized in this inquiry first offers a comprehensive explanation for the sudden change in turnout. It then establishes determinants of both voting and abstention through probit analysis, and finally illustrates the cause of the fall in turnout through simulations.
    The results show that the decline in turnout from 1990 to 1996 was due not to a decrease in mobilization, but rather to a decline in partisanship and low political interest of the electorate. In addition, alteration of the electoral rules had little significant effects.
  • フィールド実験による検証
    堀内 勇作, 今井 耕介, 谷口 尚子
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 161-180,352
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    Political scientists have hypothesized that more policy information leads to a higher voter turnout. To empirically test this hypothesis, we conducted an Internet-based randomized field experiment during Japan's 2004 Upper House election. Japan's 2004 election is ideal for testing our hypothesis because political parties proposed formal policies or “manifestos”. We find that voters are less likely to abstain when they receive policy information about both ruling and opposition parties through their official party websites. The information effects are larger among those voters who were planning to vote but were undecided about which party to vote for.
    Additionally, our experimental approach avoids the problem of endogenous information acquisition, which is inherent when using observational studies to estimate the causal effects of information on voting behavior. Furthermore, we employ a randomized block design to ensure efficient randomization, and apply a Bayesian statistical model to account for non-compliance and non-response, the two prevailing problems of field experiments.
  • 川人 貞史, 増山 幹高
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 181-200,352
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    The Japanese Diet has several institutional features that together create a “short session” system, and the scarcity of legislative time makes the possession of agenda power a central concern of parliamentary politics. During the course of this paper, we attempt to show how the institutionally-induced scarcity of time affects the way in which both the government and the opposition exercise the parliamentary prerogatives and bias the legislative outcomes to their advantage. To take into account the time factor and the censored nature of legislative process, we utilize a duration model to estimate the likelihood of a legislative proposal to pass the Diet. Combining micro-level legislative data from major postwar sessions, we compare the legislative process of the bills submitted by the cabinet with that of those proposed by the Diet members, and show that the likelihood of successful legislation depends critically on how the cabinet controls agenda setting in the Diet. The findings not only force us to reassess the literature on party politics in Japan, but also contribute to a comparative understanding of legislative institutions with respect to procedural restrictions and the incentives they provide.
  • 建林 正彦
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 201-227,353
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    This article examines the relationship between politicians and bureaucrats in postwar Japan. The author argues that the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has manipulated bureaucrats' policy preferences towards the LDP's ideal position by using “ex ante control” such as recruitment and promotion policy. With the framework of the principal-agent model, the author claims that the spurious autonomy of Japanese bureaucrats can be interpreted as the outcome of successful control over bureaucrats' preferences by LDP politicians. The paper provides evidence with a quantitative analysis of surveys conducted in 1976-77 and 2001-2002. For example, the closer the policy preference of the bureaucrat is to the ideal position of the LDP, the wider he tends to find his discretion.
  • 青木 栄一
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 228-251,353
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    Decentralization gave local governments greater autonomy in planning and executing education policy. As a consequence, some local governments reduced class size and introduced original curriculum. This paper examined the political and administrative factors in municipalities that enabled some local governments to make original education policy. Following points are made clear in this case study of political and administrative change in Shiki City and Inuyama City. First, mayor played an important role in agenda setting. In Japan, local governments did not have the autonomy in making curriculum and deciding class size. Decentralization gave them autonomy and the mayor became the key actor as the mayor had the authority in making a budget. Especially it is important that the mayor has the power to negotiate with prefecture which has the authority in deciding curriculum and class size. Second, education policy is focused on in local politics. To put it concretely, education policy proposed by the mayor became the subject of heated discussion. Third, the number of inspection mission conducted by the other local governments to both the cities rapidly increased.
  • 政策類型と教育・図書館団体の政治化を中心に
    清原 聖子
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 252-272,354
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    As David B. Truman has suggested, increasing societal complexity, characterized by economic specialization and social differentiation, causes group proliferation. This research focuses on how increasing societal complexity due to the emergence of the Internet has affected the telecommunications political process in the U. S. by analyzing the Universal Service policy process.
    Because of new issues such as the National Information Infrastructure and Internet access, more and more political actors have participated in the political process. The Telecommunications Act of 1996 also affects telecommunications policy. After the establishment of the 1996 Act, the Federal Communications Commission launched its rulemaking for the new Universal Service support mechanisms. The new Universal Service programs, especially the E-rate program, have created a great number of new constituencies. The education community and the American Library Association (ALA) play a great role in the E-rate policy implementation process. This paper will show you how new political actors like education groups and the ALA have become politicized in the field of telecommunications in the Internet Age as well as illustrate how this would be interpreted in the current American politics.
  • フィールド・インタビューの結果とその分析
    本間 圭吾
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 273-293,354
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    In December 1997, the third session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC-COP3; COP3 hereafter) was held in Kyoto. Although most developed Party countries to COP3 had to accept some reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions, Australia managed to obtain a target on an 8 percent increase above 1990 level. Undoubtedly this was a favorable outcome for both the Australian government and industry.
    The central question then arises: Why did Australia succeed in gaining the favorable 8 percent increase target at COP3? To answer the question, this paper examines Australia's diplomatic strategies for COP3, based on the results of field interviews with key persons in Canberra and Sydney.
    Australia's success at COP3 can be explained by its ability to establish a set of diplomatic strategies. This ability is based on two elements. These are whether Australia was able to elaborate a number of alternative strategies in its longterm foreign policy decision making, and whether Australia was able to resist external pressures in its short-term foreign policy decision making.
  • 徳久 恭子
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 294-312,355
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    The aim of this paper is to explain that the so-called ‘crisis of American democracy’ revealed from 1960s is related to changes in the quality of “social capital”. R. D. Putnam contends that the accumulation of social capital enhances the performance of democratic institutions. Conversely, a decrease in social capital can lead to democratic malfunctioning. Expanding this argument, Putman analyzed different forms of people's engagement in public life, and concluded that the decline of civic virtue in the US was not directly caused by changes in socio-economic structure and formal institutions.
    This paper takes a critical stance on Putnam's view and examines the weakening of social capital in the US in relation to changes in institutional design which resulted from industrialization and the development of the welfare state. It argues that it was institutionally-embedded liberalism that invited the collapse of traditional forms of ‘American community’ by promoting self-centred action based on “utilitarian and expressive individualism”. This contributed to the decline of republican traditions and the diminishing of social capital, thereby undermining the democratic performance of institutions.
  • 日本政治学会文献委員会
    2005 年 56 巻 1 号 p. 313-343
    発行日: 2005/11/10
    公開日: 2010/04/30
    ジャーナル フリー
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