European mainstream parties have faced decline for decades. Nevertheless, few studies have considered how mainstream parties have caused and reacted to such a decline. This paper argues that supply-side factors of party organization, i.e., organizational strength and leadership centralization, should be the keys to addressing collective action problems with the coordination between leadership and activists/supporters. Such coordination should be a driver for decline than demand-side factors like voter realignment and populist surge.
To test this argument, this paper explores a distinct pattern of decline in Italy. In contrast to Western Europe, where the center-left has been contracting more, the center-right Go Italy/People of Freedom has declined far more than the center-left Democratic Party. The paper examines the effects of organizational strength (local and collateral organization) and leadership centralization (candidate selection and party personalization to leaders) using regression and case studies. It shows that local organizations can suppress decline, while affiliate organizations can promote it when they are strong. The centralization of candidate selection can prevent decline more than party personalization can.
The paper finds mixed evidence for the nexus between party organizations and decline. However, it contributes to the understanding of the decline of mainstream parties in Europe beyond the Italian case.
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