In the 2020s, Japan is experiencing an unprecedented decline in birthrate and aging, and a rapid population decline is expected in the future. Under these circumstances, there could be fierce competition between large and small local governments to secure their population. Given that, there are concerns that if we are slow to notice the demographic issues in each prefecture, the start of taking measures to improve the fertility rate may be too late to maintain the population. In this study, we investigated the natural population dynamics of the 30 municipalities of Niigata Prefecture in recent years. Among these, there were a few municipalities with unique birth rates in 2022, mainly towns and villages with relatively small populations. Subsequently, we calculated the total fertility rate for each year from 2013 to 2022 in 30 municipalities and examined trends over ten years. As a result, we identified towns with persistently high or low total fertility rates, and Tagami Town continued to have a low total fertility rate. The reason for this may be the continued moving outs of women who are about to give birth from Tagami Town to neighboring Akiba Ward and Minami Ward of Niigata City, Kamo City, and Sanjo City. These results suggest that it may be useful to observe the total fertility rate over time, not only at the national or prefectural level but also at the municipal level, to implement timely population decline countermeasures.
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