Journal of Rural Economics
Online ISSN : 2188-1057
Print ISSN : 0387-3234
ISSN-L : 0387-3234
Volume 81, Issue 2
Special Issue
Displaying 1-7 of 7 articles from this issue
reports
  • Outlook for 2050
    Hiroyuki KAWASHIMA
    2009 Volume 81 Issue 2 Pages 49-59
    Published: September 25, 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: February 28, 2014
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    This report tried to locate world food production in world history. The situation in which the food production found itself changed greatly in the 20th century. Food production in the world increased in the latter half of the 20th century. Not only grain production but also meat production increased. Industrially fixed nitrogen fertilizer contributed to this increase.
    The agricultural population has begun to decrease because it has come to be able to produce food easily. The agricultural population has decreased especially in the advanced countries. The ratio of the population of farmers in advanced countries has decreased to about 2%. Moreover, the proportion of agricultural production in the GDP has decreased, too.
    Grain prices have been sluggish in the past 20 years. They began to rise in 2006; however, they fell sharply in the autumn of 2008. This rapid change shows that the cause of this change came from the inflow of speculation money into the grain market.
    The price of cereals for the production of biomass energy is higher than that of oil. A subsidy is indispensable for biomass energy production. It is not easy to think that a large amount of ethanol is produced from grain. Only the production of the ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil will increase in the future.
    Download PDF (1173K)
  • Kunio TSUBOTA
    2009 Volume 81 Issue 2 Pages 60-75
    Published: September 25, 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: February 28, 2014
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    Recent price hikes in the world food market have renewed the food security concerns of many Japanese who had long been anxious about the country's falling food self-sufficiency rates and the declining domestic agricultural sector. This paper first reviews recent turmoil in the world food market and shows that neither rising food demand in Asian emerging countries nor low levels of world food stocks were the main cause, but the biofuel policies undertaken by the EU and the US, coupled with the oil boom, have had the most significant impact on world food prices. Then by examining the food situation and policies in China, India and ASEAN countries the paper argues that they will not threaten world food security because their demand for grains will not rise as has been expected due to declining staple food consumption and a slow growth in meat demand. It is suggested that in light of rising income they would rather offer huge markets for high value farm products. Japanese agriculture, which has been suffering from the small size of farms and a rapidly aging farm labor force, should not time in capturing the opportunities that these new-rich neighbors can present. The exports of safe and quality products as well as agro-tourism will be most promising areas.
    Download PDF (1679K)
  • Yoshio YAGUCHI
    2009 Volume 81 Issue 2 Pages 76-92
    Published: September 25, 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: February 28, 2014
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    We use the term “2E2F Crisis” to refer to the global crisis involving the environment, energy, food, and financial systems. The purpose of this research is to discuss the contents and characteristics of the food crisis that constitutes part of the 2E2F Crisis, and to present a framework for the future of Japanese agriculture. In this paper, “agricultural crisis” is added as an object of consideration. Specifically, the study looks at the following three points.
    First, this paper looks at a series of critical situations involving the environment, energy, food (agriculture), and finance in and after the second half of 2006, and clarifies the contents and character of the current Food Crisis by comparing it with the World Food Crisis of 1973-74. Moreover, this paper analyzes the character of the Agricultural Crisis (Depression) of the 1920s and 1930s, and the Agricultural Recession (especially in the United States) of the first half of the 1980s, seeking clues for the possibility of a future agricultural crisis.
    Second, this paper reconfirms the international and internal position of Japanese agriculture today, proposes the principle of agricultural trade based on the universal and fundamental worth of agriculture, and presents a future direction for the achievement of “sustainable agriculture”.
    Third, based on the above, this paper presents a future direction for Japanese agriculture which positions agriculture as a basic industry in Japanese society, and also shows how a society can be developed that will allow agriculture to take root. Moreover, the paper discusses concrete tasks and the direction for raising the capability for food self-sufficiency and a self-sufficiency ratio.
    Download PDF (1807K)
Japan, China and Korea Joint Symposium
  • Nobuhiro SUZUKI
    2009 Volume 81 Issue 2 Pages 115-127
    Published: September 25, 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: February 28, 2014
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    Due to a smaller number of exporting countries and a larger number of importing countries in international food trade caused by continuous tariff reduction under the WTO (World Trade Organization) system, the recent grain prices are more responsive to changes in supply-demand balance. Moreover, the sense of insecurity becomes a cause of export restraint and raging grain speculation, thereby increasing grain price volatility.
    Food importing countries recognized after the recent world food crisis that each country should maintain a certain level of basic food production in its own country. However, since the current WTO rules have several unfair aspects favorable to exporting countries with large-scale farms, it would be difficult for Asian small-scale rice farming to survive under these rules. The rules focus on economic efficiency without considering external economies such as national security and environmental concerns. Furthermore, it is said that a total ban on export subsidies by the end of 2013 was agreed, but the pledge is very unlikely to be fulfilled because many “hidden” export subsidies are left out of this agreement. Therefore, Asian countries should aim jointly to incorporate more comprehensive rules for sustainable growth of Asian agriculture into the worldwide rules.
    In order to re-vitalize rice farming in Japan, we should allow producers' discretion in cropping and introduce inductively coordinated direct (deficiency) payments to rice by end use (direct consumption, rice powder, animal feed, and biofuel) and alternative crops (wheat and soybeans), based on calculated differences between a standard (or target) production cost and a standard selling price. In addition, direct payments based on agricultural multi-functionality should be expanded especially for small farmers in mountainous areas.
    Download PDF (752K)
  • Qinghai GUO
    2009 Volume 81 Issue 2 Pages 128-135
    Published: September 25, 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: February 28, 2014
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    Since the 1980s staple food consumption has fallen and feed consumption and industrial consumption have increased in the China corn market. Till 2007 staple food consumption has fallen to 10% and feed consumption has increased to 65% of total corn consumption, and the rest of corn consumption went to industrial use. In the changing process of corn supply and demand structure, the demand for corn as industrial material was the strongest. During the past 30 years China witnessed the fastest growth in the corn supply, which was due to progress in agricultural technology and expansion of corn growing area. In the future, the increase in the corn supply will mainly depend on progress in agricultural technology and upgrading of medium and low yield land. Owing to the food security policy of the Chinese government, China's corn export is characterized by fluctuation. Though China highly values self-sufficiency in grain, the export of corn should not be halted. The rational policy for China is to import corn in south area and to export corn in northeast area.
    Download PDF (513K)
  • Doo Bong HAN, Ji-Yong LEE
    2009 Volume 81 Issue 2 Pages 136-144
    Published: September 25, 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: February 28, 2014
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
Chairman's Address
feedback
Top