季刊経済理論
Online ISSN : 2189-7719
Print ISSN : 1882-5184
ISSN-L : 1882-5184
46 巻, 4 号
選択された号の論文の14件中1~14を表示しています
  • 原稿種別: 表紙
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. Cover1-
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 石倉 雅男
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 3-5
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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  • 中谷 武
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 6-14
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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    This paper attempts to evaluate the significance of wage-led economy of Post Keynesian economics. In order to achieve longterm sustainable economic growth under the low growth and the environmental constraints, the switch from profit-led economy to wage-led economy will be effective and also inevitable. The main points are as follows: 1) Our current economic crisis can not be resolved by simply resuming the Keynesian demand policies in face of environmental constraints, growing fiscal deficits and low birthrate and an aging population. What is important is that we have to consider both demand side and supply side simultaneously, which mutually interrelate in determining the output and employment levels. The supply side of Keynesian theory is the core of the issue, which is neglected for long because Keynes himself disregarded it. The main stream economics has picked up this point and criticized Keynes but falsely. 2) There are three ways to shift the supply curve downwards: (1) technical improvement, (2) cutting labor cost and (3) cutting profit margin. The ways employed by neo-liberals which are theoretically based on the main stream economics since eighties are the first and the second ones, whose effectiveness has shown to be restrictive because they shift the demand curve downwards as well as supply curve. In this sense the supply side policies are rebelled against by demand side; consumption demand is sharply depressed by deteriorating expectation in future wages and employment insecurity. On the other hand, the wage-led economy is to pursue the third way of downwards shift of supply curve. 3) The possibility of wage-led economy depends on both characteristics of investment and saving functions. We can say firstly that under the condition of low economic growth the characteristics of saving function become more important compared with those in investment function, secondly that a lower saving rate of laborers leads to greater possibility of wage-led economy, and thirdly that a more progressive tax system makes wage-led economy more possible. These Post Keynesian claims are of importance in face of recent regressive tax reforms and the relatively higher saving rate in Asian countries. 4) Blecker (1989) and Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) argued that the increasing international price competition prevents the potential of wage-led economy even if the domestic economy is wage-led. In this paper we discussed that this claim is not confined to wage-led economy: the profit-led economy is also not sustainable under the severe international competition. Therefore a domestic price increase can not be maintained regardless of whether it is wage-led or profit-led domestically under global competition. In other words, in face of international competition we need to improve the supply condition. Here we must consider again by which way we realize the shift of supply curve. 5) We discussed four cases of two-country economy composed of two-by-two combinations: wage-led or profit-led and domestic country or foreign country. An increase in wage share in domestic country with profitled foreign country has positive effects to both countries: the domestic production as well as foreign production increase. The effects of an increase in the wage share in wage-led domestic country become ambiguous, however, when the foreign country is also wage-led, but it affects favorably to domestic country compared to foreign country. 6) Finally we examine the necessary conditions of sustainable economic growth from longer run perspectives. If we maintain both the inside equilibrium condition and the outside equilibrium condition at the same time, how can the wage rate increase in the long run? By inside we consider the labor market and by outside we mean the trade balance. Then we argue that the wage rate increase depends on the natural growth rates of domestic and foreign economies, the elasticity of trade,

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  • 鍋島 直樹
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 15-24
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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    J. M. Keynes argued that money is not neutral both in the short-run and in the long-run, therefore it influences on real economic activities such as production and employment. Post Keynesian economists inherit his ideas, and try to develop his original theory. This paper clarifies the essence of Keynesian revolution, and explores the direction of an alternative economic theory and policy by reviewing recent developments in Post Keynesian monetary economics. The core of Keynesian economics lies in its nature of a "monetary theory of production". The theory suggests that money plays a part of it own and affects motives and decisions. Keynes made clear that aggregate demand sufficient to generate full employment is not guaranteed even in a competitive economy with perfectly flexible wages and prices. The cause of unemployment equilibrium in a monetary economy is the existence of money which is a nonproducible asset held for the purpose of liquidity. One of the main themes in Post Keynesian economics is the endogeneity of money supply. Following the pioneer study by N. Kaldor, many Post Keynesian economists have elaborated the theory of endogenous money supply. The theory has been a cornerstone of Post Keynesian economics until now. Although the "horizontalist" approach and the "structuralist" approach are different in their nature each other, together they provide a more general theory of endogenous money. Today, the "new consensus" in macroeconomics also accepts the view that the interest rate is exogenous and money is endogenous. Nevertheless, there are significant differences between Post Keynesian monetary theory and the new consensus. The latter still retains the axiom of the long-run neutrality of money and monetary policy. In contrast, Post Keynesians consider that aggregate demand not only determines the level of production and employment in the short-run, but also influences on the long-run growth path of the economy. Hence, they maintain that monetary policy can have permanent real effects.
  • 二宮 健史郎
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 25-33
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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    There has been antagonism between neo-classical and Keynesian macroeconomics since the 1980s. Neo-classical economists have criticized the IS-LM model for reasons such as lacking a microeconomic foundation and assuming price stickiness. Neo-classical and Keynesian economics also hold differing theories of interest rate. In short, neo-classical economics adopts the saving-investment theory of interest rate determination, whereas Keynesian macroeconomics adopts the liquidity preference theory. Mankiw (1992) proposed a macroeconomic model in the short and long run. He interpreted the IS equation as the saving-investment theory of interest rate and the LM equation as the quantity theory of money. Romer (2000) and Taylor (2004) presented another macroeconomic model in which a monetary policy rule was introduced in place of the LM equation. Romer (2000) and Taylor (2004) abandoned any differing theory of interest rate between neo-classical and Keynesian economics. On the other hand, Minsky (1982; 1986) who was a heavyweight in post-Keynesian economics proposed the financial instability hypothesis, which emphasized how the complicated financial structure underlying the capitalist economy generates business fluctuations and cycles. Many non-neo-classical economists have developed his idea following Taylor and O'Connell (1989) who proved that an economy would fall into a financial crisis when a decline in expected profit rates aggravated the financial condition of firms and increased households' preference for liquidity. Recent studies by Asada (2006) and Ninomiya and Sanyal (2009) have incorporated the dynamic equation of debt burden of firms into nonlinear economic dynamic models to indicate the financial condition. Following Rose (1969) and Okishio (1986), Ninomiya (2007c) adopted the loanable fund theory and discussed financial instability in an oligopolistic (or short run) economy. This paper examines financial instability in macroeconomics in the short and long run. We adopt the loanable fund theory to integrate neo-classical and Keynesian economics in order to evaluate the post-Keynesians' analysis of financial instability.
  • スコット ピーター, ジッペラー ベン, 石倉 雅男
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 34-53
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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    Macroeconomic variables exhibit fluctuations around their long-term trends. Contemporary analysis generally separates growth trends and business cycles. Real business cycle, new Keynesian, and even Kaleckian theories which assume stable steady growth paths explain cycles through stochastic shocks whose effects on output and employment are then mediated by some propagation mechanism. In contrast, this paper provides a unified Keynesian framework of cycle and trend: we focus on Kaldorian and Robinsonian models in which the average utilization rate tends to fluctuate around a desired level that is largely independent of aggregate demand, and in which the fluctuations arise endogenously from the existence of feedback effects that make the balanced growth path locally unstable. Kaldorian and Robinsonian models have similar steady growth characteristics but differ with respect to underlying short-run dynamics. When firms find themselves with more excess capacity than they think optimal, they will either reduce the scale of their investment plans-the approach stressed by Harrod and incorporated into our Kaldorian model-or they will reduce their markup in order to increase output-the mechanism emphasized by Robinson. Another difference concerns relative adjustment speeds: Kaldorian models view price adjustment as fast (er than output adjustment); Robinsonian models reverse this assumption and treat output as the fast variable. We(i) analyze the implications of these differences for the cyclical properties of the economy and (ii) evaluate the consistency of the theoretical predictions with empirical evidence for the US. Using simple prototypes of the Kaldorian and Robinsonian position, our simulations of both models successfully reproduce some of the key patterns in the US data. This is a relatively weak test, however, and regressions fail to support Robinsonian specifications of changes in the profit share. The estimation of a Kaldorian output adjustment mechanism, by contrast, produces plausible coefficients. The estimated investment function is consistent with both the Kaldorian and Robinsonian models but violates the assumptions underlying the Kaleckian growth model: the long-run sensitivity of accumulation to changes in the utilization rate far exceeds the limits imposed by a Kaleckian stability condition. Overall, the empirical evidence gives tentative support to the Kaldorian approach.
  • 新井 大輔
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 54-64
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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    The main theme of this paper is to explore the difference as well as the complementary relation between hard-information and soft-information in small business lending. I would demonstrate that, in both cases of large- and small business lending, in order for loan officers to make appropriate judgment, they should depend upon two tiers of information. However, because of the scanty hard-information about creditworthiness of small businesses, loan officer would more heavily depend upon soft-information in small business lending compared with large business lending. Because of the uniqueness of soft-information, the infrastructure on which soft-information flows from borrowers to lenders greatly differs from one on which hard-information transfers from borrowers to lenders. Most soft-information about small business transfers through personal networks between loan officers and managements of borrowers. In this context, the personal networks constitute the most important infrastructure for the efficient flow of pertinent information. I would argue that, in order to increase the efficiency of small business lending markets in Japan, the government and regulatory authorities should enhance the infrastructure for the flow of soft-information and promote more efficient exploitation of this sort of business information by lenders. However, recent regulatory thrust into hard-information oriented lending polices manifested in the Financial Examination Manual is in awkward contradiction with the efficient exploitation of soft-information in small business lending. The improvement of the network through which borrowers provide business soft-information to lenders will be in line with enhanced the efficiency of small business lending markets.
  • 熊澤 大輔
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 65-76
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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    The method of using model analysis in discussing a crisis was presented by Okishio (1976). He insisted that crisis theory is part of the assumption of Marx's schema of reproduction (Say's identity), and introduced independent investment function. Nagashima price adjustment model (1994), (2006) examined in this paper is one of the models in which the investment function is introduced. This model has already been examined by Ishikura (2007) and Nakatani (2007). However, both Ishikura (2007)and Nakatani (2007) evaluate the Nagashima model from the growth theory viewpoint. In this paper, I reexamine the character of the model from a crisis theory view. The purpose of the model concerned was to set up the system including crisis by getting rid of Marx's schema of reproduction, and introducing the investment function. Nevertheless, it is proven in this paper that the Nagashima model does not contain the crisis (supply-demand imbalance). In his model disequilibrium in goods market is dissolved without fail because demand side is smoothly adjusted according to the supply. In a word, "quasi-Say's law (Say's equity)" exists. This becomes clear by investigating the determination mechanism of the temporary equilibrium in his model. First§the Two-secter model of Nagashima is converted into single sector, holding its essential characters. Second, by using this one-secter model, the mechanism achievement of temporary equilibrium is clarified. As a result, it can be shown that the supply-demand imbalance can not be discussed in his model. Third, the structural aspect of the Nagashima model is made clearer through the comparison with Okishio operation rates model. And the equilibrium that Nagashima states (constant price) is examined. Finally, after the wage function is simplified, a general solution of the model is derived. Consequently, a general character of the model can be investigated. However, regarding this general solution it must be noted that the long-term continuation condition is shown after the supply-demand imbalance is removed.
  • 武田 壮司
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    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 77-89
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
    ジャーナル フリー
    This paper consideration to the indeterminate process of economic development of Schumpeter's [Business cycles]. [Business cycles] does not get enough estimation, still now because historical analysis. That has been recognized historical verification or analysis of institutional change. But in late years studies demonstration that one of Schumpeter's topic after 1912 year, application method of economic analysis to social areas (Andersen [2006]). Andersen said socio-cultural development recognized by extend Walrasian system to different areas of society as a whole. So, unsolved problem are (A) institutional change, (B) the interaction of innovations in various areas. And, Sionoya (1995) solved (A) by <economic sociology> from 「Capitalism, socialism and democracy(1942)」, and 「History of economic analysis (1954)」. But (B) still hasn't finished. By the way, Yagi (2008) assertion the indeterminateness in Schumpeter's economic sociology. [The development in each area occurs with the innovative activity of leading individuals that introduces an unpredictable novelty in the area concerned.] (p.54.) But there are two types of indefinite process in Schumpeter's theory. First: the innovation occurs in each area. Second: the interaction of those innovations. And 「The Theory of Economic Development」 published in 1912 discuss only first type's indeterminate. My assertion is that, Schumpeter considered 3 dimensional (including Time and Place) theory of Economic Development to solve second type's indeterminate in 1939. The main subject of this article is explain the matter from the historical analysis in [Business cycles], and solved (B). The 3rd chapter discuss indeterminate process of the socio-cultural development from 「Capitalism, socialism and democracy(1942)」, and 「History of economic analysis (1954)」 and explain the difference from "Lost" 7th chapter in 1912.
  • 佐藤 秀夫
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 90-92
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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  • 鄭淵 沼
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 93-95
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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  • 松井 暁
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 96-98
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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  • 古野 高根
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 99-100
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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  • 吉原 直毅
    原稿種別: 本文
    2010 年 46 巻 4 号 p. 101-103
    発行日: 2010/01/20
    公開日: 2017/04/25
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