If a big earthquake like kanto Earthquake should hit a mountainous area, it will cause many landslides at a time. It is necessary that the amount of debris from them are ahead to estimate for erosion control. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the number and area of landslides caused by a big earthquake. The method how to estimate is as follows:
1. The four models of big Earthquake are presumed; their epicenters are at the mouth of Fuji River and Suruga Bay on Suruga Trough and each magnitude 8.0, 8.5.
2. The minimum and the maximum distance from epicenter to the equallines are measured on the distribution maps of the seismic intensity of the earthquakes that hit Shizuoka-the Chubu district. These data yield the relation between magnitude, seismic intensity and distances from epicenter. The relation is shown graphcally by the diagram, from which the distances at magnitude 8.0 and 8.5 are read.
3. The circles are drawn wirh the radius of these distances at the presumed epicenters. The mountainous area above 200 meter high where the seismic intensity is stronger than 4 is measured on the map by the auto area calculation system composed of the digigramer and electronic conputer.
4. The landslide ratio
p% and density ρ per 1km
2 are expressed by the next empirical equations that data are quoted from the literatures,
p=7.03×10
-3exp
1.01M and ρ=1.86×10
-9α
3.5where
M is magnitude α the accelaration equivalent to the seismic intensity.
5. The total numbers and area of landslides are given by the following formulas,
N=ρ∑
7i=5Si and
A=∑
7i=5piSiwhere
pi and
Si are landslide ratio and the area of seismic intensity
i stated above 4 and 3 respectively.
As the landslides by earthquake are apt to occure at some equilibrium slopes or ridges which weathered soil is shallow, it is consider that the depth of landslides would be about 1 meter. After all, the amount of debris from landslides by big Earthquake is estimated at 3×10
7-2×10
9m
3 and this is 6×10
3-4×10
4m
3/km
2.
View full abstract