Trend analysis on the lead demand of lead acid battery in Japan (hereafter, battery lead demand) from 1966 to 1989 was carried out in order to forecast the near future (1990 and 1991 fiscal years) battery lead demand by means of extrapolating the trend analysis results.Prior to this analysis, the following points were ascertained;
(1) The battery lead demand, which is thought to be easily understood in relation to the economic activity of the car industry, can be applied instead of the whole domestic lead demand. This means that it will make no great difference if we estimate the growth of all domestic lead demand through that of battery lead demand.
(2) Battery lead demand generally shows an upward trend through the whole period, but downturns, which were based on the influence of the first oil shock (1974) and that of the world-wide recession (1982), are notably found.
(3) The battery lead demand can be explained by the total GNP (Gross National Product) instead of those GNPs which were divided into industrial areas related to battery lead demand.
The trend analysis of demand for battery lead, which consists of electrolytic lead, secondary lead and scraplead, were carried out using three methods-(a) simple regression analyses, using fiscal year and GNP as independent variables, and (b) time series analysis. The near future forecast was then carried out by extrapolating the results and these forecasts were integrated by means of the weighted average method. The results for battery lead demand are as follows.
For 1990-3.06×10
5 tons (fiscal year regression analysis), 3.14×10
5 tons (GNP regression analysis) and 3.14×10
5 tons (time series analysis); 3.12×10
5 tons (integrated forecast value); 3.10×10
5 tons (actual value);+2, 000 tons forecast error.
For 1991-3.16×10
5 tons (fiscal year regression analysis), 3.28×10
5 tons (GNP regression analysis) and 3.32×10
5 tons (time series analysis); 3.27×10
5 tons (integrated forecast value); 3.09×10
5 tons (actual value);+18, 000 tons forecast error.
The difference between the integrated forecast value and the actual result in 1990 is only+2, 000 tons. The business kept the same upward trend in 1990 as it did since November 1986. This implies that this forecast method, which is carried out by means of extrapolating the trend analysis results, can be reliably used in a monotonous econimic atmosphere. On the other hand, the difference between the integrated forecast value and the actual result in 1991 is+18, 000 tons, which is much larger than that in 1990. In addition, it shows an upward trend, though the actual value decreased in 1991 compared with that in 1990. This shows that we could not read the decrease of the battery lead demand caused by the recession, which seems to have begun in the beginning of 1991. This implies that this forecast method cannot be applied in a fluctuating economic atmosphere.
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