The specific aim of this paper is the more accurate determination of the survival time of cancer patients. The expected survival is one of the key factors for the management of cancer patients, and determines, for instance, whether aggressive curative therapy or merely palliative therapy should be carried out.
More accurate determination of the expected survival also would be of great importance for the evaluation of various treatment methods.
The many detailed records of cancer patients which are available would without doubt provide enough data to permit the estimation of the survival times with much greater accuracy than is possible in general practice today.
Associated with the statistical analysis, a theoretical study will be undertaken for the development of a theory of prognosis and treatment planning that will be applicable to the cancer-prognosis problem. In general, treatment planning must involve consideration of value. We have applied here the modern decision technique of “dynamic programming” and shown three methods of it to the treatment planning problem.
This paper indicates the relation of values to probabilities of treatment effects in treatment planning. The main goal will be to develop practical techniques for optimal treatment planning from a quantitative point of view. The final aim of the study would be to develop a rational method for the choice of the best cancer treatment procedure using the engineering theory mentioned here.
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