The following two points are basic in order to determine the optimum quantity (i. e. the largest quantity without lack) of service water obtainable from a river. That is
1. Inputs to a dam are stochastic values due to seasonal and random variations.
2. Dam's capacity is finite.
Moreover in Japan, dam's capacity is comparatively small and dam's operation by which we can regard dam's storage as Markovian with input's transition matrix is impossible. That is, water system is non-stationary.
So, in this paper the method of obtaining optimum quantity of service water which is available to a nonstationary as well as a stationary water system and easy to apply is proposed. This method is based on treating stochastic values of inputs as deterministic ones, after determining inputs values at which probabilities are equal to δ(O≤δ≤1). This new method is what has improved the conventional method by introducing the probabilistic concepts.
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