The purpose of this paper tries to find the causes of congestion in the Metropolitan Expressways and is to find some policies to relive its congestion. First, we examine the traffic volumes and road conditions in order to clarify the congestio problms in the Metropolitan Expressways. Secondly, the paper discusses the causes of congestion in the Metropolitan Expressways with the model of road congestion. Finally, we consider some policies for solving congestion problems in the Metropolitan Expressways.
In discussing strategic levels of regional income, production and employment within a regional economic planning, plural policy authorities, viz., central and local governments, may participate in it. In that circumstances, the contents of the regional economic plans, which would have been drawn out from centralized regional planning directed by the central government and from locally decentralized regional planning directed by the local governments, are freaquently inconsistent with each other. The central government will be displeased with the decentralized plan in the sense that the local governments only concern their own interests, and similarly each local government will be dissatisfied with the centralized plan in the sense that the central government considers its regional interests to a small extent. That is to say, there occurs a conflict between the central and the local governmnets. The conflicts not only may lie between the central and local governments. but also may lie between each local government because each regional economy can not be independent from other regional economy. Now, in order to regulate such conflicts, we propose two schemes. The one is to make a intermediate planning between the centralized and the decentralized plannings, and the other is to introduce the concept of the “conjectural variation” often used in oligopolistic economic theory into the decentralized planning. Then, after investigating the sources where the antagonism comes from and clarifying the mechanism which brings out the conflicts, the validity of these schemes is proved empirically with reference to the regulated stateds in the interregional input-output model of nine regions for the Japanese economy at 1975.
Sometimes, we can find the fact that when the Zipf's rank-size rule can be successfully applied to the population of cities within a country, the rule can be simultaneously applied to the population of cities within a region of the country. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the reason why we can fid such a fact. The Zipf's rank-size rule which is applied to the population of cities within a country is expressed by logP=-alogR+b(1) where P is population of cities within a country. R is the rank of the population P, and a and b are parameters. If we can find relationship which is expressed by R=KRκ+ε (0_??_ε_??_K-1)(2) between the rank of the population of cities within the k th region (k=1, 2, ····, K) in a country which is given by counting the rank among “the population of cities within the k th region”, Rk and that which is given by counting the rank among “the population of cities within the whole country”, R, when the whole country observed is divided into K regions, we can obtain the relationship between the population of cities within the k th region Pk and the rank of the population Rk, which is exactly or approximately expressed by logPκ=-aκlogPκ+bκ (κ=1, 2, ····, K) where ε, ak and bk are parameters (If we substitute equation (2) into equation (1) and write P and b-alogK(3) by Pk and bk respectively, we can obtain equation (3), when ε is regarded as sufficiently or negligibly small.). Therefore, it can be said that when the Zipf's rank-size rule can be applied to the population within a country and the condition which is written by equation (2) is satisfied, the rule can be also applied simultaneously to the population of cities within a region of the country. This characteristic which the Zipf's rank-size rule has is called here “decomposability” of the rank-size rule. In this paper, the Zipf's rank-size rule was applied to the actual population of cities within each of 9 regions in Japan. The rule was successfully applied to the population. This result suggests that the relationship between the rank of the population of cities within each of the 9 regions which is given by counting the rank among “the population of cities whthin each of the 9 regions” and that which is given by counting” the rank among the population of cities within the whole Japan” satisfied the condition written by equation (2).
The study is based on the survey conducted in 1981 by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) with the purpose of clarifying a role of user charges in municipal solid waste management. The survey attempts to cover the total number of 60 cities and intergovernmental agencies in Japan which charge, according to the 1977 national survey conducted by Japan Ministry of Health and Welfare, the user for the municipal (residential) collection and disposal (treatment) service. The NIES survey was carried out by mail as well as telephone calls to local goverment officials. Responses are made by 51 local governments, 14 of which employs a flat fee type, the remaining 37 a variable fee type. The variable fee type consists of various types, in which the change varies with either the quantity of refuse collected or the frequency or spot where service is offered. Particularly, 16 local governments employ a variable fee type of trash bag in which the user purchases trash bags from a government. The price of bag is fixed to cover production cost, billing costs and charge. Two important findings derived from our analysis of the survey are: the hypothesis that when service consumers must pay a higher fee, they will demand less service than other consumers with a lower price, is verified based on a statistical hypothesis testing of two mean values between a flat fee category (14 samples) and a trash bag category (16 samples). Second, cities with higher population densities are more likely to have lower ratios of charge revenues to total municipal solid waste treatment costs. Finally, the demand function and the cost function for municipal solid waste treatment service are estimated by the least squares method. These functions together with the marginal-cost-pricing rule and externality as well as public good concept, are utilized to provide an economic rationale for the second finding.
The gravity model of interregional trade pattern or of interregional transaction seems to have established itself as a choice behavior model in the last decade. The background for this understanding is briefly summerized in section 1. Notwithstanding the remarkable development of theoretical studies of the gravity models, existing numerous examples of estimated gravity models are still far from proving worthy of our trust. This seems to result mainly from thinking of the statistical behaviors or characteristics of the stochastic gravity models which can be variously specified. The purpose of this paper is to throw light on the importance of comprehending the statistical behavior of a stochastic gravity model, using the logit-type gravity model of interregional trade coefficient. Two types of stochastic models, the polynomial distribution model (P-model) and the normal distribution model (N-model), are discussed in section 2. The never experienced superiority of the logit-type gravity model of inter regional trade coefficient is empirically verified from a numerical example in section 3. Calling to mind that other ways of difining interregional trade pattern than the coefficient discussed in this paper are possible, we should say it leaves room for further studies in order to derive a more generalized conclusion. However, it may certainly be said the crucial point in such a study for generalization is to clarify the statistical behavior of any other relevant model.
Transport forecasts are subject to great uncertainty which is caused by a variety of errors and assumptions through the estimation process. The decision in the transport planning should be made in the context of uncertainty, but it has been ignored because of poor means to quantify it. The purpose of this paper is to describe the error structure of transport prediction and to assess the magnitude of effect of each error sources on forecasts. After possible sources of forecast error are examined, three factors, i.e., the accuracy of data for model caliblation, the specification error of models and the accuracy of input to predictor variables at the target year, are identified as the main sources of forecast error. The unfitness of forecasts which are caused by different level of errors of these three factors is measured by numerical simulation. The outcomes of the research are outlined as below. Firstly, the effects of these factors, defined as respectively variances of error of observed data, ones of residual of model and ones of error of input variables, are formulated in the case of multiregression model. It shows that Mahalanobis' generalized distance between means of data and forecasts as well affects on the accuracy of forecasts. Secondly, the magnitude of effect of three factors on forecasts error are quantitatively assessed through numerical simulation in the case of four-step transport prediction. The data precision brings relatively small error to forcasts, while specification error and ones of input variables cause rather great forecast errors. Thirdly, trade-off relationship between specification error and error of input variables is pointed out from the viewpoint of forecast error. This represents the trade-off between preciseness and complexity of a model. The more complex model is adopted in order to decrease specification error, the more forecast error is caused by the error of input variables. This suggests that the fitness of a model is not sufficient criteria to choose a prediction model and that a relatively simple model has advantage when input variables are rather vague.
In this paper the problem of developing systems for the large-scale physical planning in the civil engineering field is studied. The research group of Regional Science and Systems Analysis Laboratory of Kyoto University has been studying on systems analysis method of the physical planning problem in the areas of metropolitan region of Japan. Recently adding to these studies, this group including the author has begun the new approach utilizing the concept of information system design. This paper shows several basic concepts and methodology for the structuring method of the regional characteristics and also shows their results applying them in the former sections. Based on these experiences and developing these conceps, the author insists on the necessity of devises of Information Systems including the establishment of “data-base management system” in the latter section. In the first stage, aiming the establishment of data-base management system, the various aspects of functional system structure are analized and the system is designed conceptually. In the second stage, the system design is implemented experimentally in order to satisfy the necessary condition from the conceptual system of data-base management which is developed in the first stage, and the programs are constructed with FORTRAN language to establish this system. Some presentations of output information from the data-base management system established in this study are also shown through the hard-wares of Regional Science and Systems Analysis Laboratory of Kyoto University.
It is essential to clarify the modal choice structure of each transportation system when one plans for the comprehensive system of urban transportation which supports the city activities. If it might be so, a model for predicting modal choice, i.e., the modal split model, is to be constructed for the urban transportation planning. The purpose of this paper is to build a modal split model with attitudinal data. This is because, it would be essential, when the choice of transportation systems is analyzed, to focus upon the people's subjectivity, for urban activities seem to have become more complex due presumably to diversification of the people's subjectivity. In other words, we are controlled and adiministered by our own subjectivity, so information in the real world can only be obtained through the attitudinal data. The major results of this study are summarized as follows. 1) Through the attitudinal survey, the following problem arises. How can the numbers of items in question be minimized? This problem is related to the most proper choice of explaining factors and the classification level of them. Therefore, in this study, the tables of orthogonal arrays are adopted to reduce the numbers of items in question. 2) This study discusses the optimal modal split model estimated by the attitudinal survey in which the tables of orthogonal arrays were used. In the results, a logit model, whose theoretical basis is well-established, is the most suitable model. 3) The following problem arises when we use our modal split model built with the attitudinal data. How precisely can we predict our behavior from the data obtained from the attitudinal survey? This problem is related to the issue of “the discrepancy between attitude and behavior” which is the great concern of the researchers who are engaged in the attitudinal survey. Therefore, we compare forecasts of attitudinal model with observed data of origin-destination survey. In the results, the prediction values correspond with the observation values almost perfectly.
The purpose of this study is to view the process of the regional growth of urbanized area in Japan. As Japan experienced the rapid urbanization after the Second World War like other industrialized nations did, the rapid and continuous city-ward movement of population and industry has been promoted swiftly. In the past 25 years, the urban populations has increased rapidly from 37.5 to 75.9 percent of the total population in Japan. This can be considered as one of the clear indicators which show the transformed condtions from the significantly rural to the urban society. Although this phenomenon has served as the driving force for the rapid and enormous growth of Japanese economy on the one hand, it also caused some serious social problems such as inequal areal distribution of the population on the other. Specifically, the Japanese population is distributed densely in cities and sparsely in provincial areas. Admitedly, a city has a pivotal function for its outlying areas in terms of politics, economy, culture, and other aspects. In other words, a city has become to act as the nucleus in a certain integrated area (a rural-urban community) where the closest and most intensive associations with suburban areas are maintained. Consequently, the traffic demand around the city has increased heavily, and many important problems concerning traffic planning has come into existence. It goes without saying that there are many points to be discussed on the matter above mentioned, but it is very important from the view point of traffic planning to clarify definitely the process of the spatial changes of the regional structure of urbanized area in which the city and outlying areas connect and exist together. For this purpose, we have to make researches in a large number of urbanzed area. Therefore, we need to take into considerations the following three points; (1) The intercouse between a central chty and its outlying area. (2) The movement of population and employment within urbanized area. (3) The difference of growth rate between each urbanized area.
Throughout the almost three decades since World War II, the Japanese economy has been characterized by the active pursuit of economic growth. The postwar economic spurt contributed to the increasing income per capita, while it caused several kinds of difficult urban problems such as land use, housing, transportation and environment. Since the housing problem has been regarded as one of the most crucial urban problems, the public sector has diligently encouraged to allocate more resources for housing both by the subsidies for housing service demands and by the financial support to private housing investment. Such housing accumulation supported by the public sector would mean the improvement of housing shortage. However, it is plausible to suggest this accumulation would motivate more labor flow, more migration, from rural to urban areas, which has been made the housing problem worse. So far, this feature of housing policy has been investigated empirically by few authors. The purpose of this paper is to investigate this problem, both theoretically and empirically. After surveying the movement of housing market and the housing policy, we shall present any econometric model, which will be so cautiously built as to evaluate empirically the effects of alternative housing policies. Estimating the complete set of structural equations in our model, we examine the economic implications.
In resent years, the Large-Scale Industrial Development Plannings were planned out for the national economic development. For the realization of these plannings, it would be necessary to measure the impact arising from the industrial development. In particular, we must measure the fundamental data, the regional employment opportunities by the detailed sectors and the residential environment arising from the industrial development. In this paper, we have investigated a method for measuring the regional employment opportunities generated by new entry of factories. By using this method, we can estimate how much the employment opportunities are repercussively generated in Hokkaido region by the Tomakomai-Tobu Industrial Development. Furthermore, we try to investigate the residential environments of Tomakomai City and Sapporo City by using the urban econometrics model based on the impact of the industrial development. The main results are as follows. (1) The sum of the employment opportunities in the rest of other than the Hokkaido region is equal to that of the Hokkaido region. A remarkable feature is the increase of the regional employment opportunities in Kanto region which advanced industrially by the impact of Tomakomai-Tobu Industrial Development. (2) The regional employment opportunities of the secondary industries in Hokkaido region is 26% of the total. This result influences favorably the manufacturing sector due to the relative lower level compared to the national level. The regional employment opportunities of the tertiary industry is 62% of the total. The main cause for this the indirect impact of the newly located industries. (3) The impact on the regional employment opportunities in Sapporo City, the capital of Hokkaido region, is larger than on Tomakomai City with the industrial estate. The main causes for this are the advanced metropolis functions of Sapporo City and the indirect impact generated by newly located industries. (4) From analyisis of the residential environments in Tomakomai City and Sapporo City using the urban econometrics model, it seems to be clear that Sapporo City suffers much more than Tomakomai City from the evil impact of overpopulation brought about by the repercussive increase of employment opportunities.
1. This article is designed to deal with the overpopulation problems arising in the process of urbanization, with special emphasis on the case of the capital city of Seoul in Korea. Although some 587 years have passed since Seoul was first founded as the capital of the country, it was only after 1945 that Seoul began to show symptoms of serious overpopulation problems. There is on denying the fact that Seoul has already become one of the leading megapolises in the world in terms of the size of population. The rapid rate of increase in population in Seoul is now one of the top in the world with a result that the seriousness of overcrowdedness has outweighted the advantages of its growth. At the present, even if the area occupied by Seoul is only 0.6% of the entire territory of the nation, its population accounts for 22.3% of the total of the country and over 25% of the total manufacturing industry are coneentration in Seoul. 2. Viewed from its historical perspective, however, it is not so clear why Seoul should have necessarily suffer from such over-concentration problems as it does now. During more than five-hundred years from 1394 to 1900, the rate of increase in population in Seoul had only accounted for natural increases in its residents. Aside from considering the history of fluctuations in the size of population in Seoul chronologically, the more learned classes of society some of our forefathers belonged to, the more steadfastly they stuck to their hometowns and the efforts to move to urban areas were regarded as a disgrace and betrayal to their native towns. 3. After World War II, however, Seoul began to put on quite a new aspect as a metropolis, with the important point of starting its expansion reached in 1955. The past trend in the increase rate of population in Seoul ever since 1955 has been 7.3%, 13.0%, 17.2%, 19.8%, and 22.3%, at the intervals of every five years. The reasons for such an accelerating phase of population growth can be attributable to the following four factors. First, Korea is not a land which has been reclaimed or exploited by pioneers or frontiersmen. Second, self-governing or local autonomy in terms of politics and administration has not been achieveed. Third, there are some social discriminations against and between different regions in the country. Fourth, there in a worldwide tendency of the general public in migrating into a certain region of a country. These combined with other reasons have given rise to serious problems of over-population in the metropolitan areas. In this connection, it is fortunate that some improvement measures for redressing the current difficulties in urban areas have been constantly studied and explored under the Second Ten-year Land Development Plan.
We know by experience the difficulty of managing to control the several parameters to lead DM (decision maker) into the satisfactory solution. We think it is due to too many parameter values to be tried and poor informations about the multi-objective criterions. In this point of view this study is focused on (1) computerizing the trial and error process, and (2) informing DM of his utility function which consists of multi-objectives through the learning process Our approach is a kind of goal programming method, where “goal” is revised every iteration phase and approaches to DM's preferential solution. DM is required only to choose his minimum acceptable value of each objective function, compared with trade off informations between the objective functions based on Geoffrion . In the latter approach we felt the difficulty of the trade off estimation. This method is simpler and more heuristic than other interactive methods and is easy for DM to use it. Only one thing which DM should care for is to choose the parameter values so as to include DM's preferential solution. We have applied it to symplified Miyagi Dynamics Model and succeede. If objective functions are clearly hierarchically ordered, DM can set the preemptive priorities in this method. He learns which targets are satisfied in order of priority.