The prime object of this study is to propose an analytical framework which enables us to synthesize the static analyses of residential location. The setting for the study is the one typical in the literature of the new urban economics. Namely, the city is assumed to be monocentric, linear (or fan-shaped), and located on a featureless plane. As in the other fields of economics, there are two possible ways to deal with these problems. One is the positive approach based on individual utility maximization, typically represented by the Alonso-Muth type models, and the other is the normative approach to seek some kind of social optimum. However, when the problem is properly formulated in the latter approach, it is possible to describe the competitive equilibrium in terms of the mathematical programming. Meanwhile, the linear programming model known as the Herbert-Stevens model is proved to be able to reproduce, as its optimum, the equilibrium of the Alonso-Muth model, when the distance is discretized to a finite number of districts in this model. This conversely suggests that when the Herbert-Stevens model is reformulated to accommodate the continuous distance, this new model should have a close relationship with the original Alonso-Muth model. In the light of this observation, the Herbert-Stevens model is first reformulated as an optimal control problem, and the properties of its solution are examined from its optimality condition. In particular, it is important to learn that the optimality condition is sufficient for optimality, and the existence of such an optimum is guaranteed. The Alonso-Muth type model, which is derived under the same circumstances as the optimization model, is then formulated, and the solutions from these two models are compared. From this comparison, it is demonstrated that the continuous reformulation of the Herbert-Stevens model is theoretically equivalent to the equilibrium model of the Alonso-Muth type in the absence of externalities. Thus the existence of equilibrium can be concluded from that of the corresponding optimal control, and the Pareto optimality of the equilibrium can also be proved by the similar reasoning. These observations suggest that this Herbert-Stevens type model could provide a powerful analytical framework for the study on residential location, which maintains the theoretical correspondence with the competitive equilibrium. To demonstrate the versatility of our framework to the various urban problems, two types of urban externalities, transport congestion and neighborhood externalities, are chosen to illustrate how these externalities can be incorporated in our framework.
There have been many empirical urban land use models made up to the present. But most of them used only one year or one period data for their model calibration. Those models were not examined in the light of time series analysis. Therefore, planners have been afraid that they may misproject in long term projection while they can get good results in a short term one. Model builders have been interested in time space land use models. But they can not have built such a model. One main reason is the lack of time series cross section data of urban activities distribution. This study shows a time space land use model. This model allocates household and employment at 18 zones in the Matsuyama metropolitan area (population 530 thousand in 1980). The model was examined with the data from 5 periods during 25 years from 1955 to 1980. This model looks like the Lowry model. It is composed of the basic sector (manufacture, public utilities and govenment), the household sector, the nonbasic sector (construction, wholesale and retail, bank insurance and real estate, and services) and the agriculture sector. The number of those employed in industries in the nonbasic secrtor and agriculture and the number of households are estimated by linear regression equations. But the number employed in industries in the basic sector are given exogeneously. The model calibration was carried out in two ways. First it was done by period. We got five sets of parameter values estimated for each regression equation. Then pooling data calibration was done. The results of these calibrations were good. The value of the multiple correlation coefficient is more than 0.97 in every regression case except the one of construction employment of which the least value is 0.93. The signs of most parameters estimated meet our expectation. T values of the parameter in the case of pooling data have less than 0.1% significance level except for 2 of all 14 parameters. Trend analysis of 5 parameter values, estimated by period, showed no meaningful trend. With this result, it is difficult to estimate the future value of a parameter which is expected to be useful in long term projection from its trend analysis. Two cases of long term projection which start in 1955 and end in 1980 with each parameter set were executed. One case used the parameter values determined from pooling data regression, and the other case used those derived from the first period regression (1955-1960). The number employed by industry and households were projected by zone in 1980. As for the number of households, the average error rate per zone was 32% for the pooling parameter case and 38% for the first period parameter case. We can not say whether this result means bad projection or not in a practical sense because there has been no other examination of long term projection until now. However, this result shows that the large value of multiple correlation coefficient which is found by regression analysis will not always guarantee the success of long term projection.
In Japan today, Air transportation network is concentrated to the capital, Tokyo, in the manner of so called beam lines. This pattern is just the same about international air services. Japan is a small area, but the distance of Japan extends over 3, 000 km from north to south, but the same distance, in Europe, between Stockholm and Sicily Island. Japanese economic activity will maintain par capita income level about 10, 000 U. S. dallers, and par km2 income 2, 800, 000 U. S. dallers in 1982. Then, transportation network must change from centralization to discentralization. This change of pattern has two main effects. One is equalization in regional land planning and economic activity. The other is efficiency and time saving about international transportation network. We must take into our consideration that important problems of transportation network are not its coverage but gross time and distance. By the way, long distance international air network is always extended between capitales, sometimes including most big points. So, now, we call “Capital airport” as capital or central air port function. On the other hand, we will make the concept of “gateway airport”. This “gateway airport” is to support the capital airport to make its substitution. This function is to reduce on burdens on Tokyo and Osaka in Japanese case. Also, “gateway airport” has great economic and cultural impacts on regions that are in direct contact with oversea points. Finally, “gateway airport” is efficient in regional development policy.
The purpose of this paper is to: (i) refine the proposition of both transfer theorists and existence theorists in terms of the concept of the basis of the benefit valuation; (ii) build the general market equilibrium model in which the theory of transfer & theory of existence can be formulated; (iii) analyse the properties of this model; (iv) apply it to the benefit valuation of the highway improvement in a two-region-economy to verify the theory of transfer and theory of existence; and (v) analyse several numerical results of this verification.
Since the housing problem has been regarded as one of the most crucial urban problems, the public sector has diligently encouraged to allocate more resources for housing both by the subsidies for housing service demands and by the financial support to private housing investment. Such housing accumulation supported by the public sector would mean the improvement of housing shortage. However, it is plausible to suggest this accumulation would motivate more labor flow, more migration, from rural o urban areas, which has been made the housing problem worse. So far, this feature of housing policy has been investigated empirically by few authors. To investigate this problem, we have formulated a multiregional econometric model based several empirical facts findings. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate empirically the effects of alternative housing policies by simulation analyses. Four alternative cases have been simulated and these are based on different assumptions with regard to the public housing investment and to the financial support to private housing investment. In view of these results, we decided to focus specifically on regional Net Domestic Product, income per capita, per capita housing service measured by area of floor space and the spacial distribution of population. These results represent very strong evidence for the belief that there might be better housing policies than the actual one.
This study analizes the households' density distribution by income class in the Tokyo metropolitan region, based on the Orr's theoretical model of land use. Orr's model determines the gross density of different types of activities in a sub-divided zone of a metropolitan region as the product of the net density and the share of the land devoted to the activity. A linear regression model, which determines the gross density of an activity with the density of other activities, land characteristics, and land rent as its determinants, is derived from the theory. Applying the linear regression model to the Tokyo region, it is found that: (1) there is significant spatial segmentation of the households of different income classes in the region; (2) the density of the households of different income classes either increase or decrease according to the density of different types of industrial, commercial, and service activities, and social capital stock; and (3) the density of the households increases with land rent. The necessity of including the historical aspect of the metropolitan development and the structure of housing supply in the theoretical model for more articulate analysis is suggested.
The paper reports on the application of real time Delphi method to group social survey in the evaluation of residential environment -roadside areas with heavy traffic as a case. The performance of social survey methods is appraised with respect to those characteristics as representativity of samples, identifiability of the sampled people, stability of responses, accuracy in communicating the meaning of the questions, quickness of response and economy of execution. Subjectives' accessibility to objective facts and to other people's opinions are judged to be essential to secure the accurate communication and high stability of responses. A group survey method experimented here employed real time Delphi method where inquiries and answers were iterated along with the group's total opinion fedback to the participants. The effectiveness of this information exchange scheme process were examined in comparison with the results from personal interviews executed beforehand. In June 1981, four experimental conferences were held at the Evauation Laboratory of Man Environment Systems (ELMES) set up in NIES, with the aim of evaluating the environment of roadside areas. In those conferences, 17 to 24 citizens of Tuchiura City, Ibaraki Prefecture, selected randomly from the subjectives interviewed three months before, gave weights by rating method (the values vary from 0 to 100) to 7 items which represented characteristics of roadside areas' environment, such as noise, vibration, air pollution, dust, litter, pedestrian danger and difficulty in crossing the road. Electronic voting device, which accumulates the participants' votes immediately, indicated to them the average points scored by the group after every voting. This procedure were iterated three times with discussions among participants in between. After the weighting of indivisual items, participants are asked to assign grades in five steps to their nearby environment. This process were iterated twice with discussions in between. Conclusions conducted from those experimental conferences are as follows: 1) In examining the results from interview and conference, the scored values concerning the participants' nearby residential environment were not so stable. And the rating method was judged to be unstable for weighting in comparison to the pairwise rating method (the linear weighting method), based on large variation observed among participants' opinions. 2) Employment of real time Delphi in a group conferences leads to gradual stabilization of serial responses. 3) On the assumption that the comprehensive environmental evaluation of roadside areas were estimated by the linear combination form of the 7 items, the coincidence of the regression model with the participants' total evaluation on the environment were examined. The coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.949 estimated from the conference, in comparison to 0.753 from the personal interview, showed the effectiveness of real time Delphi method in evaluating the residential environment comprehensively. In addition to those results, discussions held in the conferences clearly showed the differences of the environmental perceptions among participants. And answers to the inquiries asked after the conferences indicated that the information exchange scheme employed to the conferences promoted participants' motivation to participate in this kind of group conferences.
The purposes of this paper are: 1) to present a model that intregrates the classical ruralurban migration hypothesis into the utility differential model and 2) to analyze the structure of the recent rural-urban migration. As is well known the size and the direction of the migration between rural areas and the urban used to coincide with the business fluctuations of the whole economy since the nineteenth century in the western countries1), which may conveniently be called the classical migration. This phenomenon was also observed in the postwar Japan, at least up to the late 1950's2). A massive one-way inflow of the rural population into the metropolitan areas since then3) however, seems to have led most regional economists to formulations of a variety of hypotheses explaining this urbanization that could be well summarised as the ‘ utility differential hypothesis4)’. In this process the relationship between the migration and the business cycle came to escape the attention of the students in this field. In the following we will revisit this long-dismissed relationship and evaluate the legitimacy of the so-called ‘U-turn’ or ‘J-turn’ proposition5). Section I presents simple data anlyses and Section II the model. The final section shows some simulation results and findings.
This paper empirically investigates the effects of urban agglomeration economies on productivities in two-digit manufacturing industries using the cross section data of Japanese cities for 1979. It focuses on urbanization and localization economies, which are two major forms of external agglomeration economies, and tries to estimate the effects of thess two economies separately in industrial activities. The findings are; (1) light indusries receive more productive advantages from urbanization economies than from localization economies, the situation is the other way round for heavy industries, and (2) firms in most manufacturing industries receive more productive advantages from being located at cities in metropolitan areas than at very large cities, indicating the consistency with the recent trend of manufacturing firms to move from a large central cities to medium-sized cities within the metropolitan area.
A systems model for the short to medium-term analysis of interregional and international trade is formulated and discussed. The model embodies elements of information theory and general equilibrium/disequilibrium analysis within an iterative framework. Three major components which form separate submodels deal with (i) the prediction of trade flows, (ii) the prices and costs of the traded goods, and (iii) world market adjustments in the short run. These three submodels are interactive, and a distinctive feature of the resulting formulation is the appearance of identical (embedded) constraints in the price and quantity submodels. Information theory provides a practical means of considering trade barriers, zones of preference (under bilateral trade agreements) and other factors relating to the terms of trade, as well as various theoretical assumptions which may warrant investigation. The result is an extremely versatile vehicle for trade modelling in situations where the availability of trade data is limited.
In this paper we propose new nonsurvey methods for simulating the input-output system at a small region level in an attempt to overcome the disadvantages of the simple location quotient approach. Two different models are newly proposed; one is derived directly from the traditional export determination model, and another is obtained by modifying the former model. After that, these two new methods as well as the simple location quotient method are applied to the actual data in Japan, with the aim of evaluating the performance of each method.
As an individual human being has his personal history, so does a rece its history and so does each region its background history. In the light of the historical perspective, we may say that local cities of the earlier times served as the bases from which their present modern city forms have developed. In other words, the ancient cities, in whatever forms they used to take, must have been the foundations on which the modern cities have evolved. Through a concrete grasp of the status of these cities in the ancient times, we may be able to project such concrete knowledge harmoneously into the present and future development of them. In this respect, it is necessary to study the ancient local cities. By doing so, we may be able to have the developmental history of a city come into a sharper focus and eventually help develop the city based on its autonomous and independent functions to the extent that it meets the particular needs of the city. In retrospect, there are many ancient cities which have been neglected in the recent national development in spite of the fact that they used to play vital roles as regional centers in politics, economy, administration and culture in the earlier times. The reasons may be due to the changes in dynamics of international trade, communication, circulation of goods, etcf the fact that they used to play vital roles as regional centers in politics, economy, administration and culture in the earlis are not necessarily epressed at a single standard and often falter. With the views of promoting regional characterization in the local city development policy in line with the rise of interests in “regional era”, this paper has emphasized that even a small scale regional development plan should take into account the background history of the city involved, by which not only the regional heterogeneity is respected but also the overal beauty of national development may be explored with for esights and deeper consideration. These aspects are closely examined with concrete cases as backbone of the paper.