Conventional economic planning theories deal with a wide variety of approches to achieve an objective. The basic attempts in these thories have been to maximize or minimize an objective function, say, social welfare or profit of a firm or cost of producing a specific commodity, leading to an optimal policy frame work to achieve the goal. Optimal theoritical policy frame work spelt out in the economic theory to achieve an objective more often is not suitable to the practical situation and the ever changing socio-economic environment. In view of the above-stated reasons a different philosophy from that of the common meaning of optimal approaches is adopted. A new approaches is proposed to clarify how the actual economic growth could be converged towards the reference economic path that is designed theoritically. Towards this objective the theory of model reference adaptive system is applied to a dynamic input-output system, and we propose the new method named “Model Reference Adaptive I-O System”.
Many authors have been working on land use models focused on metropolitan areas. However, those models vary largely in their perceptions of regions and activities, combinations of endogenous and exogenous variables, and the ways to mediate locational competitions. Since many of those models are so-called engineering models motivated to evaluate the impacts of certain regional policies or projects, they are not necessarily consistent with the macro-econometric models which are to provide their control totals. The primal purpose of this study is to propose a metropolitan land use simulation model which has a direct link with the system of regional accounts. The model is composed of three major model blocks; regional frame, activity, and location models, among which, the last model is the principal subject of this article. The role of location model is to estimate the regional allocation of stock variables, including land areas, number of employees, industrial assets, number of housing and population. The model consists of five submodels, which can be summarized as follows. (a) Basic location submodel: to determine increments of land areas occupied by each activity, along with investments and housing construction accompany them, based on Ellickson's random bidding model. (b) Stock accounting submodel: to calculate number of employees and existing amounts of stock variables. (c) Auxiliary location submodel: to distribute investment items and employees of “non-basic” activities. (d) Communting submodel: to determine commuting patterns and population allocation based on a constrained gravity model. (e) Demolition submodel: to estimate the amounts of land released by each activity. The study area is Kanto Region consists of 1 metropolis and 6 prefectures, which are subdivided into 51 zones. Activities are classified into 35 sectors and 6 housing types. Data are collected and processed for every year between two census years, 1975 and 1980.
Many papers dealing with shopping behavior and the retail model have been published since Reilly proposed “the Law of Retail Gravitation” in 1931. Among them, Reilly's Law and Huff's Retail Potential Model are especially well-known. These models are of a gravity-type, and are found to be useful in explaining the phenomena of shopping behavior, but since they are empirical they lack theoretical rationale and economic interpretation. In this study the Gravity Law is derived from the utility maximization theory in terms of consumer shopping behavior. This result enables us to interpret the Gravity Law economically. The fundamental hypothesis here is that the individual always seeks to maximize his utility in shopping behavior. The utility is assumed to consist of the number of trips made by the individual to the shopping center and its attractiveness. The utility function is maximized under the time constraint requiring that the total amount of time spent travelling to the shopping center must be equal to or less than the total amount of free time given to the individual. Consequently, the gravity-type model including the number of trips to the shopping center as a subordinate variable can be obtained as a shopping behavioral model. The shopping behavioral model explains that the number of trips to the shopping center is in direct proportion to its attractiveness and in inverse proportion to the travel time. The model structure is similar to that of empirical shopping models which were developed by Reilly and Huff and have been used extensively. As a result, an economic interpretation is able to be given to the gravity model of consumer shopping behavior using the utility maximization theory as a hypothesis. Formulae that are able to estimate the total number of trips to any shopping center and its market share to all of the shopping centers in urban areas, were derived from the gravity-type model obtained above. Similarly, other formulae were obtained for calculating the changes in the total number of trips to the shopping center and its market share to newly proposed shopping complexes. These results are useful for the commercial activity to make a strategy for the development of new shopping centers and for its own allocation planning. The formula to estimate the trade areas of the shopping center was also derived from the shopping behavioral model. The range of trade areas is proportionated to the amount of attractiveness of the shopping center. This result shows that the trade areas proposed by Reilly and Converce are proved theoretically.
Most of telecommunications systems are usually supplied under a two-part tariff system. Two-part tariff is the system which users must pay marginal charge according to their volume, in addition to a monthly fixed charge. As the telecommunications technology advances, in the so-called advanced information-oriented society, it is expected that the charge will not be imposed proportional to the distance between caller and recipient but to the volume transmitted. Most of telecommunications systems have demand (consumption) externalities in that the benefit of a subscriber depends on the number of subscribers of the system. As the number of subscribers increases, the benefit which a subscriber can obtain from the service also increases. They also obtain benefit from receiving calls without paying any charge. These characteristics are essential to analyzing the demand and supply of the telecommunications service. From this point of view, this paper is organized. Considering the demand, supply and tariff structure in equilibrium, we derive the optimal two-part tariff both for profit maximization and for total surplus maximization. The results are as follows. In the former case, the constant marginal charge per volume is set higher than the constant variable cost, while the fixed charge per subscriber diverges from the fixed cost according to the two opposing factors which result from the externality effects. In the latter case, the constant marginal charge is set lower than the variable cost by the benefit from receiving induced by the marginal increase in total demand. Also the fixed charge must be set lower than the fixed cost because of the external effects.
Industrial sectors had an important role to lead the rapid growth of Japanese economy in 1960s. However, the industrial structure has changed drastically since two oil crises in 1970s, which brings different locational trend accelerated by various technology revolutions. The aim of this study is to analyse the trend of industrial location in a decade (1975-85) and various factors for industrial relocation using the data of the Kinki region collected by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. Locational requirements for industrial location are examined considering the results of these analyses. In particular the analysis of some industrial sectors which show remarkable high growth such as high-technology industries is emphasized and the relation between factory size and location factors is also examined. The major results of this study are summarized as follows: (1) The analysis of locational trend has made it clear that the weight of conventional and local industries is decreasing and the industrial structure is changing drastically, which requires the change of regional policy fitting to recent industrial tendency. (2) In the analysis of locational factors it has been clarified that some highly-growing industries attach importance to the quality of labour and encouragement by local goverment compaired with other industries. Therefore, the promotion of these factors is very important as well as other policies such as provisions of land and various facilities. (3) This study has also clarified that the evaluation of locational factors depends upon the type and size of factories, which means that it is not easy to satisfy every requirements by respective factory at the same time. Therefore, the comprehensive regional plan to settle each factory in its appropriate place considering respective locational preference is required.
There have been many studies about estimation of residential bid rent with some different approaches. They are traditional cross section analyses, hedonic price approach methods and disaggrigate models newly developed. Those studies commonly assume the monocentric city hypothesis. It guarantees that we can estimate the unique bid rent curve along the distance from city center for the households who have uniform income and utility function. But actual cities where we try to estimate bid rent functions have fairly wide job distribution. As different job sites yield the different bid rent curves, we need more information on households' job location and commuting time adding to house location and land price there for the estimation. And it is very hard to gather such collective information. However, we can get rid of the trouble under certain conditions of job and house distribution. We discuss the condition in the case of a simple one dimention urban model with job sites. It is found that if the number of households working at job sites distributed from city center to a point in the city exceeds the number of houses supplied for them locating in the area from city center to the point, each bid rent curve of household at different job site lies on the unique bid rent curve. The range of the area is examined using actual job house distribution data in Tokyo. Then we can estimate the bid land price function for the households living in the area using only the data in the Land nautification book published by National land agency. The estimation is executed by three building type, high-rise apartment, low-rise wooden apartment and detached house. The random bid rent model which is developed by Lerman and Kern and has never actually computed is used. This model has the both characteristics of regression analysis and discrimination analysis. The computed results show fairly good levels of these two way of analysis. The most important variable of bid land price function estimated is the time distance from the city center to the location of a house in the three estimation cases. As for the absolute number of parameter value estimated for the variable the biggest one is of high-rise apartment, the second low-rise wooden apartment and the third detached house. It is found too that the width of street in front of a building is important for high-rise apartment and the distance to the nearest railway station from a house location is important for low-rise wooden apartment. These characteristics of bid land price functions estimated have good correspondings to our observations of actual housing market. Compared with the parameter value estimated by regression analysis, the difference of the parameter values estimated by this model among building types is much bigger than the one by regression analysis.
This paper investigates a benefit from a decrease in an accident rate which is one of benefits when driver uses an expressway. As the occurrence of accidents is a probablistic phenomenon, it is difficult to explain the benefit of risk-decreasing behavior by an usual consumer theory. Then an expected utility theory will be used to analyse a consumer behavior under uncertainty. It is a behavior as a risk-averter that a driver may choose an expressway which is a tollroad instead of a street which is not charged in order to reduce the accident rate. Therefore an insurance theory will be adopted to examine the behavior of a driver as a risk-averter. By the way, there are three kinds of insurance behavior accoding to I. EHRLICH AND G. BECKER; they are market insurance, self insurance, and self protection. In this paper, an idea of self protection will be used to explain the driver's risk-averting behavior because the driver will increase the frequency of using an expressway in order to reduce the probability of anaccidents. Consequently, the result of appling the self protection theory to explain the driver's behavior is plausible; for example, the increase of a probability of an accident on a street make the driver to use an expressway more frequently, or the rise of a toll of an expressway reduces the frequency of using it. From this result, it may be benefieial to apply an insurance theory to road problems.
Divestiture of AT&T, shifting the operation of both British Telecom (BT) and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) to private sector brought free competition principle in telecommunication market. The surroundings of telecommunication market are drastically changing. There are very difficult questions about why such a serious changing is occurring and what kind of impacts it brings. One of the causes of this change is the development of electronics, which began rapidly to grow after the invention of the transistor, and the advance of information processing and telecommunication technologies accompanying the development of electronics. The dispersion and agglomeration of the metropolitan areas are influenced by those innovations. We focus our attention on the structure of telecommunication demand to predict such an influence of the telecommunication on the society. One of the reasons to introduce the Japanese telecommunication market the free competition principle is to make the telecommunication supply more flexible. Through the flexible supply, various kinds of demand should be met. The main services supplied by NCCs (New Common Carriers), which is just beginning their businesses however, is not a really new service, but a traditional telephone service, so called old medics. Namely, this means that the telecommunication using telephone is succeedingly main media. We examine the demand for telecommunication services, especially the international telephone one originated in Japan by the econometric analysis, in order to investigate the structural change of telecommunication market through technical innovations. Since the telephone services are voice communication between humanities, the demand structure is said to be hardly changed in the advanced information society. However, we have a doubt on the idea mentioned above, because of the following reasons. 1. Increasing data-communication, which does not use data-network, such as facsimile transmission and personal computer communication using acoustic coupler. 2. Changing of the price system due to the free competioion. 3. Change of the price and income elasticities accompanying the change of the role of information. 4. Substituting and complementing the new services for telephone service. We intend to prove these hypotheses. Furthermore by the proved results, we intend to estimate the impact of the telecommunications and its technologies on the socio-economical system.
After the oil crisis in 1973, a great discrepancy in growth rate has occured between regional and national economy in Japan. One of the major causes of this regional economic change is the expansion of the growth rate difference between material and mechine industries, which was yielded by the recent national economic trends. Therefore, in case of building a regional econometric model, it is also important to consider the dependence of regional economy upon national economic factors, especially upon the trends of manufactures. The purpose of this paper is to construct a regional econometric model, where manufactures play a key role, depending upon national economic trends. The model is applied to data for three regions of Tohoku district in period 1970-1982. The development of CRIEPI Regional Econometric Model for Tohoku District is the second case-study of this type model buililding after the construction of Chugoku Regional Econometric Model-verision I-. This paper consists of three parts. In the first part, the structure of the model is studied. In the second part, the usage of regional economic statistics is studied from the viewpoint of this type model building. In the third part, after checking the fitness of the model, impact tests are performed under the assumption of 10 percent change of local government fixed capital formation in 1971, in comparison with the actual level. The results are summarized in table 1.
The major objective of this paper is to demonstrate that interregional income differential is exogenous to interregional net migration, but not conversely. By use of the Japanese prefectural based data for 1954-82, we conduct two kinds of analyses to confirm this statement. Firstly, a simple comparison of the crests of interregional time-series plots was made to see which occurred first. Secondly, Sims' test of causality was done to investigate causation between rural/urban per capita income differential and rural/urban net migration.
1. TAEKRIGI is atopology written by Lee Jungwhan (李重煥) about 230 years ago. His topology is quite different from those of the traditional popology based on the national view of the topography. In short, the content of his book is based on a rather reasonable theoretical system and scientific approach. Especially his book draws our attention with its theoretical model is much employed at presest. 2. The reason of comparing the geographical characteristics of NAGAI City in the province of YAMAGADA, with the model presented in TAEKRIGI is that the topography of NAGAI area is very similar to that described in TAEKRIGI even though the latter is very difficult to be found in a real situation. In other words, the colors of the land, the water courses, and the natural landscape seen early in the morning in TAEKRIGI, all correspend to those of NAGAI area. 3. The natural conditions described in the book have no defects in promoting the environmental pleasantness even though someone may doubt whether such conditions can provide us an ideal environment for our life. 4. Some prejudice such as the old theories are worn-out merely because they are in the old classic cooks should be eliminated. As man has his history, so an area has its local topography. If both of them are defined on the basis of human wisdom, it is better that the fefinition should have a longer time-bond, for many of the indirect experiences can be incorporated in it. 5. From the above point of view, the writer, with the help of the theory modelled in TAEKRIGI would like to present the following five suggestions for the future development of NAGAI City. a. Proper measurement the basis for the continuous development of the local traditional culture in order to enhance the pride of the citizens. b. Expansion of the basis for the development of the nonpollution industry. c. Local promotion based on the practical employment of the natural conditions. d. Proper measurement for the establishment plan of the local colleges to increase the qualified personnel in the local area. e. Presentation of an index for the development through the cooperation among the citizens.