Rural (agricultural and mountainous) depopulation problems in Japan are caused by the over-outmigration into urban areas. The primal factors of the outmigration are not only the rural socioeconomic conditions such as labour and dwelling environments but also the commuting accessibility to urban areas. The over-outmigration does not occur when the commuting accessibility is high, even if the rural socioeconomic conditions are inferior, since they can enjoy the good socioeconomic conditions in urban areas easily. On the other hand, the urban inhabitants who had inmigrated from rural areas will return to their native rural areas, if the rural socioeconomic conditions or the commuting accessibility are improved. The migration is derived from the choice behaviour of dwelling place. The commuting trip is derived from the choice behaviour of work place conditional on the dwelling place. Standing on these viewpoints, we simultaneously analyse the migration and commuting behaviour based on a decision making process. The factor influencing the process consists of: (1) labour; (2) dwelling; and (3) commuting conditions. The inhabitant totally evaluates those conditions, and decides on his dwelling and work places. The evaluation of inhabitants differ from each other according to their life cycles if the choice conditions are identical. The choice behaviour of dwelling and work places are not independent from each other. The life cycles and this choice dependence are key points of our approach. A model for the life cycle and its changing process is incorporated with a simultaneous choice behaviour model. By this model, we can analyse the followings, simultaniously: (1) the rural population; (2) outmigration into urban areas; (3) inmigration from urban areas; and (4) commuting trips from rural to urban areas.
The purpose of this study is to extend the policy alternatives of water resource planning by assuming the regional industrial water demand is derived by the final consumption of goods. Use of goods or services derives the water demand not only from the industry which process and complete them but also from the industries which produce the inputs such as materials, capital goods, energy, etc.. The sum of those derived water demand per unit amount or price of final goods or services is defined as water intensity. The water intensity of goods is affected by both of the water use of each industry and the production technology or industrial relation. The water demand is redefined as the product of water intensity and the amount of final goods which is consumed by household. From the viewpoint of the water intensity of goods, the import of goods imputes the industrial water demand to the other region and relaxes the water resource limitation of the region itself. On the contrary, the export of goods increases regional water demand. In this paper, firstly the water intensity of goods is formulated based on the input-output model. Secondly inter-regional dependence of water demand is formulated using the inter-regional trading pattern coefficient. Some numerical results are presented based on the national and regional input-output tables and the OD table of freight transportation. For example, the private consumption by the residents of Chiba prefecture derived 136 liter of water per day per capita on average from Ibaragi prefecture in 1980.
The conventional theory of cost-benefit analysis had held that in a world of perfect certainty, the appropriate measure of benefit for a project is the aggregate willingness-to-pay, that is the sum of the revenues collected plus the price conpensating measures of consumers' surplus for all consumers. However, B. Weisbrod asserted in his paper that when there is uncertainty in demand, there may be an additional form of benefit that must be added to the consumer surplus measure. He called this benefit ‘option value’. After many attempts to clarify the concept of option value had be made, option value was usually defined as the difference between option price and expected consumer's surplus. Resently, D. Graham showed with willingness-to-pay locus that option price is one of an infinite number of contingent schemes. This paper has two purposes; firstly to show that the willingness-to-pay locus depicted by Graham was so rough that some important properties of it were missed. If these properties are considered, some types of willingness-to-pay locus can be obtaind and any types have not option value because option price cannot exit. Secondly to extend the option demand theory to wider situation. That is the situation in which not only utilty function but also probability measure will change in response to the enforcement of a project. For example, we assume a situation where a road is usually croweded with the probability of p0% and normal with the probability of 1-p0%, and a road user can obtain income of ec yen in crowded state and en yen in normal state. If road investment is enforced, the probability of crowded state will decrease and that of normal state will increase. The road user's income will increase in both states. Then, the road user may be willing to pay for the road investment. To examine this example, conditional expected utility theory can be applied. Then, we get the conclusion that there are three cases about option price if option price exits; option price is positive, zero or negative. The last case in which option price is negative is new result in the option demand theory.
This paper analytically investigates the validity of Eaton and Lipsey's (1976) conjecture that there exist more than one equilibrium configurations in an infinite two-dimensional market. The competition considered here is under the assumptions of (i) an infinite two-dimensional market, (ii) fixed and identical mill price for all firms, (iii) evenly spreading consumers endowed with inelastic demand functions, (iv) firm's zero conjectural variation. etc. It is scrutinized whether or not several configurations of the firms in a two-dimensional market are in Nash equilibrium, and among which regular hexagonal configuration and regular square configuration are proved to be in equilibrium. Comparison between equilibrium configurations of one-dimensional and two-dimensional markets shows that they are qualitatively different in terms of “strength of equilibrium” and “social optimality”.
The image analysis of a citizen on a city is a matter of great importance because the image contributes to the behavior of human beings. Especialiy, for the townscape planning of a city with complex physical features, it is essential to clarify the relation between the image of the citizens on the city and its physical features. In this paper, the comparative study results of “the evaluation image” on the local cities are described. The major results are as follows; (1) Though the rate of reproductive elements of image on the favorite place and the favorite scene increases with the degree of urbanization, the content of image is constant. (2) On the other hand, the content of the reproductive elements of image on the places where improvement must be made differs completely in degree of urbanization.
This paper focusses the significance of the total load control scheme which was recently introduced by the Japanese Government, to apply to designated closed water bodies in Japan. By showing that part of the problem is the resolution of conflicts in the allocation of environmental loads to be discharged by interested parties, a game-theoretic model by use of cooperative game theory has been presented. Mathematical analyses have been performed to derive theoretical properties of the two-person game that has been formulated as a prototype model of the conflict. It has been shown that what originally appears to be a game of COD load allocation can be reduced to what is called a cost allocation game. This latter type of allocation game has been proved to be largely determined by an a priori assignment of total COD loads dischargeable to each player. Illustration has been made of the necessity of setting up on a higher level than this game, some fairness norms that may bind what follows as a cost allocation game. The paper concludes by suggesting possible further generalization of the proposed two-person game into an n-person game.
Urban transportation system affects not only the users but also have impacts on the non-users who live near the transport facilities and the community as a whole. Therefore, in evaluating a transportation system, all of the effects to the region such as environmental pollution, energy consumption, safety, comfortableness of lives and change of land use etc. also have to be considered. In order to establish a comprehensive transportation planning system it is necessary to develop a method in which travel demands of all modes are considered synthetically and all items related to transport facilities are included. That is to say more accurate prediction method which includes all of the urban transport mode and more comprehensive evaluation method have to be used. However, works in this field have been carried out scarcely. In this paper, to evaluate a transportation plan in the level of metropolitan area objectively, resonably and comprehensively, the maxization of net social benefit is used as an evaluation criterion. The contents of this study are as follows: First, a measuring method of all of the costs that are related to transport facilities such as operating cost, travel time cost, construction cost, traffic accident cost and environmental impact cost are discussed. Second, a measuring method of users'-surplus which forms most part of direct effect of improvement of transport facilities is discussed. Third, a measuring model of transport-related costs are developed, and then by combining this model to the multi-mode travel demand prediction model, an evaluation system of transport network plan is constructed. Fourth, the model is applied to the evaluation of the transport network plan of Nagoya metropolitan area. As a result, it becomes possible to some extent that the effects of the construction and improvement of metropolitan transportation system are evaluated on the basis of social surplus by using the evaluation method which is developed in this study.
The road distance between two cities is not determined completely by the direct distance. The road network and the topography influence the road distance and make a difference in accessibility of cities in the traffic network. In this paper the direct distance and road distance between two cities in Chugoku region, Kyushu region, and Shikoku region are measured and relation of the two distances is quantitatively aralyzed. As a result, the following anclusions are obtained: (1) The ratio of the road distance to the direct distance is between 1.36 and 1.40 on the national highway network, the road distance is distributed in the range of about 100km. Therefore it is difficult to estimate the road distance by the direct distance. (2) Kyushu region has small difference in the accessibility of cities not only in prefectural road network but also in national highway network. In Chugoku region there are some cities which are not high accessibility in national highway network. In Shikoku region the pretectural roads do not support national highway network and some cities have low accessibility in traffic network. (3) The topographical barrier extends the road distance. The ratio of the road distance to the direct distance is between 1.5 and 3.0 in the road along the vallry, the mountain pass, and the coastline such as rias. (4) In this paper the road distance is divided into three elements. The first element is the direct distance. The second element is the distance extended by the distribution of road network. The last element is the distance extended by the topographical barrier. The ratio of the second element to the first element is 12_??_14%, the ratio of the last element to the first element is 18_??_30%. Therefore, the influence of topographical barrier is larger tham the influence of the road distribution.
Since middle 1970's many studies have been carried out on disaggregate travel demand models. However, applications of those models to transportation plannings are limited; they are usually applied to local and short-term transportation plannings, or they are used in the frames of traditional 4-step travel demand forecasting models by replacing some of those steps. That is, there have been few attempts to develop and apply disaggregate travel demand model systems for predicting travel demand in metropolitan areas. The model developed in this study incorporates trip frequency, destination and mode choice for non-woker travel by using the conception of travel tours into utility-maximizing frame. The model incorporates the concept that decisions of trips in a travel tour depend on decisions of trips conducted theretofore and decisions of trips planned thereafter, as well as on current trip conditions. Empirical examinations for Nagoya metropolitan area show the feasibility of the model.
To continue our efforts to construct a land use simulation model for a metropolitan area, this article is focused upon modeling of two types of probabilities which play key roles in determining spatial allocations of urban activities. The location probabilities are the proportions of land occupied by each activity. Such probabilities can be considered either in terms of stocks or of stock increases. Although the latter is desirable in operational models, it is practically difficult to obtain stable results unless long-term data bases are available. Hence, we here employ the former framework to calibrate the model, which is expressed as an aggregate multinomial logit model concerning 34 land consuming activities and the reservation demand. The stock probabilities are then to be transformed into the latter ones through difference operations. The other types of probabilities are the demolition probabilities, which are defined as the propotions of land to be released by the activity to the one retained by it in the previous period. Although such probabilities are to be considered in terms of land, we instead employ the “locational entities”, either values of production capitals, numbers of employees or housing units, due to lack of credible land use data. Since it is difficult to calibrate models on the activity basis, activities are classified into eight groups to establish binomial logit models. With those probabilities, the proposed simulation model on metropolitan land use is completed. The entire model consists of three major model blocks, viz., the regional frame, activity and location models, and the results of two separate experimental simulations are also shown to illustrate the performance of the location model, which includes the above probabilities. The one is the total simulations, and the other is the flow simulations with all the variables to be determined in the location model given exogenously. Our study area is the Kanto Region, which is subdivided into 51 zones, and the simulations are made on the annual basiss starting from 1976 and ending in 1980.
The Regional population is one of the most important factors for the regional planning. In the infrastructure planning fields planners generally approach the regional population forecast by using of Land Use Model, which is focused on analysis of interactions among various land users in the urban area. It is well known that the land price is determined by the equilibrium between supply and demand, however very few previous land use models have explicitly focused on that equilibrium. That is, although demanding behaviour was modelled in a micro-level by using of Utilty Theory, supplying behaviour was not modelled exactly because of its lack of land supply theory. As the result those models can explicitly forecast the impacts of various government policies on neither land supply side nor land price. In order to avoid those demerits, we construct a land use model without modelling supplying behaviour. First construct a demand function by using of Randum Utility Theory which describes consumer behaviour, and assume a simple supply function which has only land price, population and zone area as a supply limit, and then induce a land price function from the equilibrium condition on the land market. Simultaneously construct a residential choice function on the process of constructing the demand function. So this model may be viewed in expressing the equilibrium condition on the land market without modelling supplying behaviour, because it is with endogenous land market equilibrium price. In this paper we also examine the applicability of this model through the case study of applying to Gifu Prefecture. On estimating the number of households and the land price at each zone, this model is proved to have ability of reappearing present condition, but not enough reliable for the estimation of these change. The reason of the latter result could be that in this model (1) the interaction of population migration between inside and outside of the subject region was not considered, and (2) the real estate is treated as similar to general consumer goods in spite of inclining to be regarded as the subject of speculation in Japan. This model will also be able to estimate the effect of any environmental improvement projects, because the residential choice function of this model has those factors. But unfortunately those factors was not adopted to this model in the case study because of their statistical insignificance.