A dynamic model of the monopolistic land markets in the monocentric city is presented which are differentiated from each other by the certain location charactristics. The dynamic and spatial impacts affected by the taxes on the land markets will be analysed by the numerical simulation. We assumed the land market dominance relation among the landowners. The land having inferior characteristics must be sold at a lower price than the superior. The location characteristics are measured in terms of the distance to the city center. The landowner is, therefore, the dominator to those who have outer districts than his. There exists only one landowner on each land market. He is a discriminating monopolist of the first degree in Pigou's sense. The income of household is a random variable, and has a certain discrete probability distribution. The demand price curve faced with by the landowners at each period is derived by discounting and aggregating the bid rents by the households (who have not yet possessed land till that period in Case 2). For simplicity, it is assumed that the disposal by the landowner is only selling. The reserved land is used for, e. g., rural use and the revenues are determinate, and stable over time. We assume a system of transfer taxes which, in effect, completely or at least almost disposses profits yielded by brokage. The assumption implies no land broker since he needs to pay opportunity costs of the funds. Furthermore, we assume it to cost prohibitively to make a lot with no housing on it. The last two assumptions imply that land is economically non-transferable over time. The landowner must pay transfer tax on the sale of land. He also pays revenue tax if the reserved land is used on rural uses. At each period, the landowner heuristically makes a program for a stream of sales and uses in the future so as to maximize the present value of the tracts of land which have been reserved till that period. The present value depends on the discount rate, revenues of the rural use, the demand price curve which is statically forecasted by himself, and the taxes. He actually executes the first period of each program. Simulation results will be shown, and the impacts of the land property tax are compared with those which are obtained under the assumption that the demand price curve is given, and stable over time (Higano ).
In this paper we have studied effects of motorway improvement in Japan. In this study we used a computable general equilibrium model which have been proposed for impact studies of regional policies. By using this operational model based on micro economic theory, we are able to study impacts not only the changes of demand and supply, but also the change of price, income, utility and so on. Through this study, the following things have been appeard. Though motorway network was constructed rapidly, it is appeared that in delayed case of motorway construction industries such a electric machinery didn't located in rural area. Moreover, in early step of motorway construction, its benefits were imputed to a few regions where motorway had been constructed, but as motorways had been constructed more and more, the benefits were spread to all regions.
Recently, social and economic data collected at various regional levels have been used for statistical regional analyses in planning. In these analyses, the regression analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method has been most popular. It assumes that error-terms have zero-means, common variances and independent normal distributions. However, the assumption is often not adequate for spatial data. In fact, residuals in regression are often spatially autocorrelated, as indicated in this study from prefectural data. Martin (1974) and Dow et al. (1982) investigated OLS estimators for parameters when error-terms are spatially autocorrelated. As they pointed out, the OLS estimators are unbiased, but the variances of estimeters and t-values are biased. However, they did not concretely indicate the magnitude of biases in t-values, which was more important for regional analysis. This study finds the range of the biases in simple regression, by means of simulation, with the prefectures in Japan as objective areas and the “inverse of distances” matrix as the weighting matrix in which elements means proximity between each area. The results indicate that t-value is over-estimated if spatial autocorrelations of both error-terms and explanatory variables are of the same sign. On the other hand, t-value is under-estimated if they are of the opposite sign. This corresponds to Martin's result. More specifically, when both error-terms and explanatory variables are positively autocorrelated, the rate of over-estimation of t-value is approximately 1.4 at the maximum. We also explain other factors, namely, sample size, configuration of areas and weighting matrix, in relation to the biases of t-value. Particularly, the setting of weighting matrix has a great influence on the biases. In the case of a 3×16 mesh, the maximum bias of using “contiguous” matrix is 1.7 times as large as using “inverse of distances” matrix. There are many studies in which the autocorrelation parameters are estimated. However, the method to directly estimate the weighting matrix has not been developed yet. It is therefore necessary to develop a general procedure of estimating the weighting matrix from spatial and time-series data.
Econometric studies based on the so-called q theory have so far been often unsuccessful. One of the main reasons for this seems to exist in the way the average q (denoted by qA) is estimated. The q theory itself, until now, has provided no specific expressions for the qA. As a proxy for this, some financial and other vague variables such as stock prices have been adopted in prior econometric analyses. The present paper demonstrates the significance of the qA in our econometric analysis. Our findings are as follows. 1. A new interpretation of the qA is obtained along with a new formulation of its microeconomics foundations, namely the qA is the ratio of Net Cash Flow to the adjustment cost of investment. Utilizing our definition of the qA, within the confines of the model, we show this value to be determined by such variables as profit rates and investment rates except for the discount rate. We can thus obtain the qA in a consistent manner with the model. 2. The marginal q being equal to unity or not is of no relevance to the criterion for an investment decision making and we derive a new investment decision rule from the q theory. In particular, the optimal investment behavior at any time is to invest so as to maintain the maximal value of the qA, namely so as to maximize the ratio of Net Cash Flow to the adjustment cost of investment. 3. By estimating the q values for Japan, United States, Korea and Taiwan, and by attempting a comparative analysis of investment conditions and rationality of investment behavior of these conutries, we find the following in particular: (a) Throughout the sample periods, from 1970 to 1991, while the qA values for both Japan and United States are more decreasing than increasing those for Korea and Taiwan are increasing. This means that for Japan and The United States the investment conditions are getting worse, contrary to those for Korea and Taiwan that are improving. Especially, the damage to Japan and the United States from the first oil crisis was more serious than it was to Korea and Taiwan, although the investment conditions thereafter have become similar and competitive among these nations. (b) Japan and the United States do not show a tendency to follow optimal paths implied by our investment criterion or decision rule, implying instead their investment behavior not fully rational. In contrast, there was a positive correlation between the investment level and the direction of changes in the investment conditions of Korea and Taiwan. Thus their investment behaviors were apparently rational.
In Japan, the evaluation of infrastructure improvement level is traditionally based on internation comparisons. However, such approach can not account for factors such as topography and land use patterns. In this research, a procedure for the evaluation of improvement level for transport and park infrastructure is investigated. The proposed procedure is based on “nested logit model” technique which is proved to be suitable for behavioral analysis. Estimation of the model parameters was based on the person trip survey carried out in Nagoya city, in 1981. The service levels of transportation and park infrastructure from viewpoint of most suitable state are evaluated by using the above models in Nagoya City.
The capital investment required for the development of TREDA (Tumen River Economic Development Area) depends upon the set of parameters. We analyzed the relationship between the required investment and sets of basic parameters of the supposedly integrated TREDA: targeted per capita income, population (size or growth rate), depreciation rate of the capital stock, and the introduced ODA in conjunction with the assessment of the ‘country’ risk. Current TREDA economy has a population of 4.4 million, with an average income of approximately 1, 000, endowed with an attributed 0.6 billion dollars of ODA outstanding and 9.8 billion dollars of capital stock in an area of 54, 704 km2. For this economy to grow to 2, 500 in per capita income in 30 years under the assumptions of 3% annual population growth rate and 8% ODA (outstanding) growth rate, the GDP must grow at 6.1%. This requires a total gross investment of 92 billion dollars, out of which infrastructure investment will be 24 billion dollars. Required capital investment depends on a combination of various economic parameters. It will be 121 billion, 100 billion, and $93 billion, respectively, if population growth rate is 4%, depreciation rate is assumed to be 6% and ODA growth rate is 9%, in tern. We speculate that for the city is to be viable against expected strong backwash effects from existing big cities in the vicinity, the planned core city must be of rank one or two in population size. This implies that this envisioned development mucleus must have a population of 4.0 millions as rank 1 or 1.5 millions as rank 2 in 30 years when calculated from the current rank-size distribution of cities in the TREDA. In our calculation, TREDA will be allowed to absorb six to nine billion dollars of ODA for its ‘public sector’ to maintain its ‘country risk’ at a healthy twenty to thirty percent of its GDP. The extra ODA investment reflects the TREDA's favored position to be allowed by the respective countries due to the external economy, reduction of income differentials within the respective countries, and the assessed value of strengthened security among the concerned countries.
This article examines regional economic growth and income disparities in the three north-easterm provinces of China (i.e., Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces) by using such techniques of regional analysis as weighted coefficient of variation and shift-and-share analysis. Major findings are as follows. First, a shift-and-share analysis based on employment data by industry confirms that inefficiency of state-owned enterprises, especially in the heavy and chemical industry, is a major cause of the relative sluggishness of these provinces in the 1980s and 1990s. Second, regional income inequality measured by weighted coefficient of variation over the 1952-92 period presents several distinct cycles reflecting changing relative roles of each province in the development of China. Finally, a sectoral decomposition analysis using income data by industry shows the dominance of secondary industry in the determination of regional income inequality as it accounts for more than 50 percent of the squared weighted coefficient of variation over the period.
The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive regional planning model in which a land use/transportation model is incorporated into a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model in a consistent way, thereby it provides a Generalized Land Use/Transportation Equilibrium (GLUTE) model that enable us to predict not only the intensity of land use of each region, interregional transport demands including both passenger and freight and network flows within the general equilibrium framework. GLUTE model may be useful to provide numerical guidance to policy makers on the economic impacts of alternative options concerned with the infrastructure planning. The formulation of the model is structured in the way that a Newton-Raphson method can be used in the processes of equilibrating prices.
This paper provides a review and empirically tests of the available evidence concerning the question of economies of scale on Japanese aviation industry. Japanese aviation industry has been deregulated on December 1985. Japan Airline (JAL) for mainly the international lines, All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Air System (JAS) for the domestic regular airlines have been able to extend airlines into the other lines. Of course its not a free competition yet. Minimum price control and entry regulation have been done, and potential entrants will not achieve their intentions. By the way, it has been pointed that the Japanese aviation industry has the economies of scale. This paper examines how it has changed after deregulation on December 1985, from the view of the cost structure of the three airlines (JAL, ANA, JAS). It can be said that the three major air carriers in Japan have the scale economies in their trans-log type cost function. The degree of it becomes decreasing after deregulation from the empirical results of “tonne-kilometre performed” as a single output so far. Moreover, the abbreviated type of trans-log cost functions are tested (homothetic and homogeneous types). It is proved that the full type of trans-log cost function is better than the other abbreviated types by the estimation of the data of Japanese air carriers.
Generally speaking, the opening of an expressway affects the economy of adjacent areas in a postive manner, as travelling time is reduced and other conditions necessary for conducting business in such areas are improved. For example, an expressway could improve the efficiency of farm produce transport, increase the number of local manufacturing plants, and encourage tourism. However, improved traffic conditions reduce the distance between municipalities and could negatively affect the local economy by enabling businesses and therefore consumers to leave the area. This possibility can be a particular concern depending on population size and site conditions for manufacturers and distributors. The time required for travel between various municipalities is shortened by the opening of an expressway. An expressway changes retailers relative site conditions and thus affects consumer actions. The effects of an expressway on retailers normally take the form of an outflow of consumers from less attractive to more attractive areas, particularly from outlying municipalities to a more centralized area. Therefore, for retailers located in outlying municipalities, the opening of an expressway could lead to an outflow of consumers who had previously shopped closer to the more attractive core community. In this paper, I have analyzed how these factors affect competition among retailers in neighboring municipalities. My analysis was based on research comparing broad-based consumer actions before and after the opening of an expressway. A probability model involving the selection of purchasing sites by consumers was used in the analysis. Based on the findings of this research, I derived spatial patterns for consumer movement from outlying municipalities to the core community following the opening of an expressway. I attempted to reveal how the effects of a newlyopened expressway differ depending on the types of items purchased and conditions for competition among retailers in neighboring municipalities.
Concerning trade friction between US and Japan, current policy option is directed to deregulation on trade after discussing the options of increasing final demands and of adjusting exchange rate. Although expressing deregulation in an econometric model is not easier issue, it may be possible to alter parameters of structure of the model. This article examines an effect of deregulation by the use of multilateral input-output system linked with macroeconometric models. For this purpose we first describe a framework of international input-output system, in which elasticity of relative price will determine trade indirectly because hmport is affected by relative price in virtue of elasticity according to the Armington assumption. As a trade system sensitive to a relative price change may increase imports, elasticity of relative price may be interpreted as a measure of reflecting relative price change. As regulation on trade is dependent of the industry, it is appropriate to assign different value for each industry. And finally it is concluded that deregulation have an effect of increasing imports to a certain extent.
In Japan, the travel time especially the commuting time in the metropolitan areas, for example, the Tokyo metropolitan area, is so long that it becomes a social problem the government faces to. In order to make an appropriate policy, it is neccessary to understand the current situation. Surely, the analysis may be made from many different viewpoints. Authors are going to emphasize with the knowledge of the travel activity analysis. This study aims to analyze the difference of one day's travel time among the prefectures in Japan, and then the relation between transportation and activities. The study is based on the ideas of the time budget of travel activity analysis. The data used in the study have been collected by NHK every 5 years. Therefore the time serial analysis can be carried out. The time serial data are used to investigate the change of travel time (one day's travel time). Further, the cross-section data are used to make the regression analysis between the one day's travel time and the other social, economic and transportation factors in the unit of prefecture. Moreover, the factor-analysis are made for understanding the characteristics of each prefecture.
This paper examines the present conditions of regional accounts, and points out the its issues. Regional accounts are estimated in various forms at many countries because of the SNA did not indicate the standard system of the regional accounts. How about the desirable system of regional accounts? We do not think we can have unified system of regional accounts. Because of the system of regional accounts should be adapted to its analytical objectives. According to this idea, we must fill up the system of prefectual accounts which is the core of Japanese regional accounts. For this porposes, we must form the new system of prefectual accounts that focus to main parts of SNA. Every prefectueres must be effort to advance the date of delivery of this system. Secondary, we must make up the supplemental system of prefectual accounts. The supplemental system of prefectual accounts consist of two types of regional accounts system. The first is the system of regional accounts for cities, towns, and villages. Though many cities, towns, and villages are making regional accounts, there are a few cities, towns, and villages did not make the regional accounts. Every cities, towns, and villages must make up the regional accounts. The second is the system of regional accounts for blocks that consist of group of prefectures. It focus to catch for inter regional transaction. This system is made by division of national accounts, so we can have information of regional economy so early than prefectual accounts.
Regional ranking can be made by comparing with regions with each other at various indexes. However these rankings are not so trustworthy, especialy when there are so many regions that have similar indexes. Therefore rankings are used sometimes trustingly and sometimes doultbully. As a meams of representing the reliablity of the regional rankings, fuzzy membership functions are utilized. The membership functions around every index figure are as follows. g means how near two indexes are. And Gi means how many regions are members of i-region, as it were, “potential of short distance membership”. Then we difine Φ as follows. Φ means total difference of “potential” And Φ is the function of ω as follows. So Φ has maximum at some point of ω. (_??_Φ_??_0) As Φ is total difference of potential, it's important to select ω which bring maximum value of Φ. Because the more the value is high, the cleaerer the difference between every Gi. We select such ω and then observe which regions are near with each other and in those near group we find they has no meaning to rank each other.
During the periods of high economic growth, river environment in urban areas has undergone a remarkable change and lost the amenities, caused by the improvements are given priority to flood control and water use. Recently, ensuring the amenity and healthiness in river environment that is regarded as important with the improvement of civil life. Thus, the conservation of ecology, improving water quality and water amentiry is promoting as political action. This study purposed to obtain an expressly information for the planning of river improvement which towards a high quality life. For the purpose, we investigated inhabitant's consciousness of evaluating river environment as a living environmental factor by questionnaire survey, and attempted to explain the structure of inhabitant's consciousness as quantitative relation by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. In result, following acknowledgments were given. 1) There is a growing need for the improvement of river environment about water quality, water amenity and ecology, inhabitants recognize that rever environment is a part of the nature in living environment. 2) To confirmed flood control is the most important function that based on giving the largest priority (53.1%) to ‘flood control, ’ and to keep safety that is the most basic function. 3) According to that ‘environmental function’ is given priority (28.1%) in the second place, inhabitants have a need of the nature in river space. It also means that ‘conservation of ecology’ has higher priority (10.2%) compared with 15 items on same level of the hierarchy structure. 4) According to that ‘estimating ecological river environement’ is given the largest priority (41.0%) in alternatives, the conservation of ecology in river space has a direction that satisfies inhabitant's preference. These results give suggestions a growing need to measure and evaluate ‘nonuse value’ of river environment.
Information development means the degree to which information activies are diffused, well-organized, and effective in the socio-economic activities. In this paper, the synthetic characteristic indicators of the information development are presented by the principal components analysis. Based on the indicators, the process of the information development in a developing region like shanghai city of China and a developed region like Japan is analysed. The impact of the information development on the economical development is evaluated. Comparing the indicators of Shanghai with those of Japan, the big difference between them is pointed out.
Northeast Asia's potential for growth and development has always far exceeded its performance. Recent changes in the former Soviet Union together with sustained economic growth in Japan and South Korea suggest that Northeast Asia's economic role at a global scale will change substantially. The Tumen River Project illustrates both the opportunities available in Northeast Asia and the economic, historical, and political issues that are associated with development here. This paper examines the challenges faced by the region as it looks to its roles as an integrated industrial region and as a supplier of raw materials and manufactured goods to markets around the Sea of Japan and elsewhere.
1. Worldwise Tendency of Industrialization Worldwise industrialization in 1960-90 showed a bipolarization trend: ratio of MAV per worker between lowest and highest increased from 1: 800 to 1: 1, 600. Ranks of Asian countries improved greatly. Ranking by per worker value-added was as follows: World Bank (September 1993), The East Asian Miracle-Economic Growth and Public Policy, showed that eight countries (Japan, China, Four Tigers, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) showed higher than 1.5% per-capita GDP growth (1960-85) and belonged to top 1/3 (middle, 1.5-0, bottom minus), while Gini coefficients decreased in these economies except China. So they achieved “growth and equity” simultaneously, based upon their exportoriented open development strategy and the virtuous circle (growth, equitable distribution, enlarged domestic market, further growth). This spurt is the core of developemnt of surrounding regions: Pan-Pacific-Ocean-Region (or APEC region). Interregional inequality in China is high (C. V of 10 regions 0.3266 (1989) is comparable with 0.3451 (Japan, 47 regions, 1960). Until Fifth Five Year Plan (1981-85), China emphasized the local autarchy of foods and basic goods for defense purpose. After 6th Plan (1986-90) changed the development pattern to advancement of litoral and big-river areas and trickle-down to inland areas. 2. Industrialization of Four North-East-Asian (NEA) countries Figures (at the end) show the MVA (1980 US million) of 27 subsectors, their share and growth in 1985-90 for 4 countries. Recently the growth slowed down due to worldwise recession. Rapidly expanded subsectors are Machineries (38), chemicals (35) and glasses (36). Various machineries (electric and electronic) showed highest growth in many cases. The rank of shares of light industries (Russia, China, Korea, Japan). Rank of heavy and chemical industries (Japan, Korea, China, Russia). The share of energy and other manufacturing is 9-10% in every country. Rank of machineries (Japan, Russia, Korea, China). The dissimilarity index (Japan (1990) as base) is defined as the sum of absolute percentage differences between different country and period. Structure of Korea and China are similar to Japan 1970 and 1960, respectively. These three countries experience the similar structural changes. Structure of Russia is very different, and speed of change is very low. The effective wage (real wage divided by average labor productivity) decreased in USA and Japan, but increased in Korea and China. The ratio are Japan (1.00), Korea (0.64), China (0.58), so cheaper than Japan by 36 and 42 per cent. Wage of Russia decreased from 0.28 to 0.13. 3. Future Direction of North-East Asian Region The industrial structure of Japan is full-set type, and balanced between high-tech, middle-tech and basic-tech. One of Korea is cone-type. ASEAN mainly middle-tech. China and Russia lack middle-tech (Seki Mitsuhiro. 1993). The Japanese FDI to China was US 1.2 billion (92), exceeded FDI to 4 South-east Asian countries. The North-East China has (1) big accumulation of Basia-tech businesses, (2) is important to realize the well-balanced regional development of China, (3) will fave a good accessibility after the construction of transport ssystem, and has a good possibility of intra-industry division of labor as well as the assembly-type activities. Eastern Russia is endowed with ample energy resources, and has a good chance of inter-industry-type division of labor.
The recent discussions that focused on the problems of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade [GATT] together with the emergence of strengthened and expanded free trade areas [such as NAFTA, European Union and MERCOSUL/MERCOSUR] have created the need for careful analysis of the nature of internal annd external dependence among nations and, within any nation, among the constituent regions. The picture that is obtained from inspection of import and export flows is only one (and often the smaller) part of the nature of dependence; there is a need to consider the indirect effects and, in addition, the possible feedbacks that may accrue from expansion of links between any two countries rippling through a broader set of economies and returning to expand activity in the originating economy. However, until recently, a dearth of data precluded the type of analysis conducted here; the development of consistent intercountry input-output tables for Europe enabled the first attempt at an understanding of intercountry dependencies (see Sonis, Oosterhaven and Hewings, 1993). This paper will explore similar perspectives with a set of Asian intercountry input-output tables for 1985. In this paper, some new perspectives are advanced that provide a more comprehensive view of the interactions between the economies of Asia. The analysis focuses on the potential for uncovering alternative perspectives about the role of linkages and multipliers in input-output systems. The analysis draws on some pioneering work by Miyazawa in the identification of internal and external multiplier effects. Paths of direct and indirect dependency are revealed as well as the nature and strength of feedback loops. In addition, some potential exists for contibutions to the debate raised by Krugman (1991, 1993) on the role of regionalism versus multilateralism. Using these methods, it is possible to provide insights into the way in which these economies are integrated, the strength of the integration and the potential consequences of action in one economy on the rest of the system. The analysis parallels some earlier work on the European economies and will provide the basis for future comparative analysis as updated tables are produced.