The recent Bubble and its crash caused severe difficult problems to many local municipalities. Governments of suburban areas were required to remake their future planning and want to know the basic future trends of the local economies. The purpose of this study is to construct a model of a suburban city and use it to forecast basic tendencies of its local economy. The results will be useful for the long-run planning of the suburban city government. We will present an econometric model for Mitaka City to describe her basic social-economic system, emphasizing her relations with the economy of Japan and the Tokyo Metropolis. Mitaka City has been a typical bed-town of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area for decades. In recent years, however, the social structure of Mitaka City is changing from a bed town to a commercial district. The model will consist of 43 equations with annual data for 1970-1991. The equations are divided into five or six blocks, which are: demographics, industrial activities, land uses and land prices, households, public sector and others. We will forecast several conditional cases up to 2010 assuming reasonable trends for Japan and the Tokyo CBD and discuss some policy implications.
In recent years, applied time series analyses have increasingly relied on univariate time series models of the Box-Jenkins type. When economists and forecasters apply ARIMA models to their data, they frequently fail to take advantage of the qualitative information embodied in the results. This paper provides an example of how such information acquisition may be accomplished. The models were originally proposed as a means to develop forecasting mechanisms for the generation of expected prices in an analysis of fresh vegetable market supply functions. In this paper, a technique is presented showing how these same models provide information about market structure. First, a formal statistical test is proposed. Second, when this test cannot be applied, intuitive observations on general model characteristics are proposed.
In this paper, we have reexamined the analysis of taxes and subsidies in an open static Leontief model initiated by Metzler (1951), resorting mainly to the properties of the inverse of an M-matrix, and filled small apertures by arguing how to determine the sectors to be taxed and subsidized and the range of tax rate compatible with the nonnegativity of the equilibrium post-tax-subsidy prices and the stability of the dynamic process of the price formulation in the case of ad valorem tax.