We investigated the structure of commerce in Morioka City to design the region in 1971, patronized by the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry. When they found the result of our investigation promising, the merchants of Morioka admired us. But when they found it not prosperous, they blamed us. This does not mean that they are ignorant of the science of investigation. They have taken the result of our investigation for the plan. They are right and we are wrong, I think. We investigated the commercial structure, but did not plan the regional commerce structure. The result of investigation is not the planning. We must plan the regional commerce structure. The method of planning is important. We must plan by the system approach. This method has a fine structure which consists of problem definition, value system design, systems synthesis, systems analysis, optimization, decision making, planning for action, and implementation. Of cource, I can find “the plan” in the report “the regional plan to modernized the commerce in Morioka City.” But this plan is only an abstract model which have no relation with our investigation. The plan is to have relations with investigations and is to be made following the system approach. So I have rewritten the report by the system approach.
The purpose of this study is to analyse quantitatively the economic effects of the New Tohoku Trunk Line, that is expected to generate a big effect to the development in many regions in the Tohoku provinces. The study is at an interim stage now, and I attempted to show in this paper the model with which the economic effects of investment on the transport facilities can be analysed, and investigate the problem of valueing the economic effects. The characteristic of the model is one calculating economic effects on the regional income which change by investment on the transport facilities through the distance factor in many courses of economic mechanism.
This study was undertaken to find out what is the optimal size and the optimal environment of the city by using Factor Analysis Method. The concept of municipal indexes were introduced into this study for the representation of city environment. The degree of development is estimated by those indexes that consist of functional factors and environmental factors. In the first, the principal axes analysis was enployed to classify 49 environmental factors of 46 prefectural metropolises. It is suggested by the result of this analysis that following three factors can approximately express the municipalindexes; Factor-I: Agglomeration or Concentration Factor-II: Density of Facilities Factor-III: Structure of Industries Next, the 37 environmental factors were classified into two categories. One category consists of 24 factors, and another does of 13 factors. The former 24 factors represent agglomeration of city facilities, and the latter 13 factors represent open space of the city. It is assumed here that the optimal size of city stands at the equilibrium of agglomeration factors and open space factors, and an intersection point of two regression lines that are fitted to the scatter diagram of agglomeration factors, or open space factors and populations of prefectural metropolises shows optimal environment of city in size. It has been obtained from those analysis that the city with the population of 400, 000 inhabitants and the population density of 1, 600 inhabitants/km2 is the optimal environment in size. Okayama city and Wakayama city may be given as two examples of the optimal environment satisfying those conditions.
This paper attempts to analyze the process of under-agglomeration in Shikoku Region and Tohoku Region of Japan. This study originally consists of three parts; the sruvey of the actual process of under-agglomeration, the analysis of its causal chains, and the appraisal of the counterplans taken by the authorities for depopulation of under-developed rural areas, but in this paper the author especially deals with the analysis of its two casual chains; the levels of inhabitants' income and the social overhead captials in under-agglomerating rural areas. The author also attempts to analyze the non-econometric factors such as social structure of the communities and mental disposition of the inhabitants. Questionairs were designed for four arear, viz., Ikeda in Tokushima Pref., Aikawa in Akita Pref., Iwaizumi in Iwate Pref. and Yusuhara in Koochi Pref. to throw a sociometric light upon the observed process of the under-agglomeration in these areas.
So far some economists have studied the pattern of traffic assignment theoretically and empirically. But it seems that there are few proper stochastic or statistical models for analyzing the traffic assignment problem on the base of an economic theory. The purpose of this paper is to formulate the economic behavior of traffic assignment and to derive some statistical models which seem useful for empirical study or the prediction of the future course. Three diffirent models for traffic assignment were developed. The first is similar to Quandt-Baumol model (1966) by which they analyzed the social traffic demand in California. In that model it is suggested that individual will choose the transportation modes so as to minimize his loss prescribed by traffic time and cost of each mode. However in deriving the social demand function from individual's one, we have had no consistent procedure concerning aggregation. The second model was developed by a stochastic approach to overcome the difficulty in the aspect of aggregation of the first model. The traffic time and cost are main factors to assign the modes in that model too. The thrid model was proposed for prediction in the future course so that model always satisfys the condition that the sum of predicted values of each assignment ratio be strictly unity. Finally some empirical applications on the basis of the second and thrid model were attempted. It seems that such applcations were rather succesful.
I) The location of secondary industries in the inland Tohoku area has gradually come into fashion in recent years. Even in the northern Tohoku area (i.e. Aomori, Akita and Iwate Prefectures), which has been heavily dependent on agriculture, the tempo of industrialization is quickening. II) Mechanical industries play a vital role in the industrialization of inland regions. The production of machinery in the Tohoku has increased in value by 17.5 times between 1955 and 1969. The Tohoku manufacturers' share in the national market of machinery, therefore, has increased since 1960, and this trend is expected to go on. III) What are the major motives for the location of these mechanical industries in the Tohoku? Replies to our questionnaire e revealed that difficulties in procuring additional land and labor made it necessary for the metropolitan enterprises to seek new places for expanded production. Under these circumstances, the Tohoku was chosen due to the following advantages: a) Land price, which is soaring on a nation-wide basis, is relatively cheap, and procuring broad-enough sites for industrial purposes is rather easy. b) Since residents of the Tohoku have been suffering from lack of employment, particularly in wintertime, there exists an abundant labor force which is cheap, persevering and industrious. c) Truck transportation on highways between the Tohoku and the Tokyo Metropolitan Area is improving. d) The local governments in the Tohoku have the policy of enouraging industry to locate in their area and extend special favors toward the incoming industries. IV) Further study of individual cases has drawn us to the following conclusions: a) The above mentioned advantages for the incoming enterprises as to land and labor have undoubtedly been decreasing, since quite a few existing and incoming enterprises of secondary as well as tertiary industries have been attracted by these resoruces. b) On the other hand, construction of super-highways and the future operation of bullet trains between the Tohoku and Tokyo will drastically reduce the time for transprotation of personnel, raw materials, and finished goods. This, together with the construction of industrial parks, which have been planned and prepared by the central government as well as local governments based on such policies as the industrialization of agricultural zones and the relocation of metropolitan industries, will greatly improve the present conditions of industrial location in the Tohoku. V) Mechanical industries in the Tohoku, though handicapped by low technical level, lack of affiliated industries, the freezing climate and heavy snowfalls in winter, etc., will continue to advance, and will be one of the leading forces for the regional growth of the Tohoku area.
Estimate for the population of whole country by age and sex is to be accomplished passably in accuracy by such a method as to add the number of future birth estimate and to deduct the number of future death estimate year after year. But the estimate of future regional population in land is unstable on account of the confusing factor by imigration to and from other districts in land. However, the sum of the estimate of each district in the country must be in accord with the estimate of nation-wide population which is made absolutely at the same time of the sum, while inflow and outflow of population must be cancelled each other. Therefore, when the estimate of future population will be made simultaneously all over the districts in land, and will be summed up in care of accumulating in the frame of a nation-wide population estimate, the sum of those future population estimates will be considered as a model of national population construction by age, sex and district in a state of equibrium in future. And this idea may be adopted in case of the estimate of future population in a certain prefecture also, if some suitable scale of population will be premised for this prefecture. From such a point of view, this report is made on the ground of the estimate of 62 cities, towns and villages in Iwate Prefecture from 1970 to 1985 by age and sex. In this course of estimate I put the net rate of outflow to “Z” and took some assumption of changing patterns of “Z” during the estimate period, and calculated by computer all the futur population numbers by age, sex and district according to every pattern of “Z-change” -or change of net outflow rate of population from one district-, and summed up to be in accord with a certain probable future prefectural population scale. Detail of the method is explained in this paper in due order. As the result of this estimate it is clear that many towns and villages and a few cities in Iwate-Prefecture will be oppressed with severe unbalance of population by age and sex in future, if the inreace of outflow will not cease hereafter. A suitable allocation of industry is to be considered to stop the excessive out-flow of youngers. And a harmony of population in age and sex is to be considered as a principal ideal in regional development programm.
In order to promote the numerical studies in regional problems, it is necessary to introduce some new type of indexes analogous to the terms of trade indexes. In this paper, we have proposed the agricultural sector terms indexes or the farmer household terms indexes in order to make our object clear. Then we proceeded to the entrepreneur terms indexes of manufacturing industry. After making these trial calculations, we tried to combine both indexes so as to construct regional terms indexes. But it was not highly successful. We had to stay at the stage of theoretical treatment at present. We have also dealt with the employee terms indexes of manufacturing industry in this paper. These indexes can be arranged according to areal units and, though they may assimilate with so-called real wage indexes, we find there are new ways of application of these indexes. The proposal of regional terms indexes might seem too bold, but, in my opinion, it may contribute to some extent toward the betterment of knowledge in regional sciences.
Firstly, the report aims to clarify the importance of the meaning of transportation policy in creating the modern efficient transport network system associated with regional development planning in the socio-economically backward region (Chap. II, III). Secondly, the Paper points out the major items of the comprehensive transportation policy needed in the region (Chap. IV). Thirdly, in connection with the expressway network building policy, the importance of a scientific approach to the route selection of expressway system is discussed, and building policy of a higher standard of expressway, such as parkway, rational land planning, designed to prevent noise and air pollution, is recommended (Chap. V). Lastly, the Paper alludes to the urgent needs of the development policy on safety air routes system to overcome the long distance between the main cities in the region and the great metropolitan regions, such as Tokyo, Osaka, Sapporo and Fukuoka. It also emphasizes the importance of environmental planning in building large jet airports in the suburban areas of the major cities in the region (Chap. VI). The main items of the theses are as follows: I Foreword II The Present Stage of Development and Issues in Regional Development Policy 1 Backwardness in Economic Structure 2 Objects and Tasks of Development Policy III The Importance of Transportation Policy as a Development Strategy 1 Socio-economic and Cultural Importance of Infrastructure Policy 2 Transportation Policy Needed for Economic Growth After Take-off IV Comprehensive Transportation Policy in the Region 1 The Need of High Efficiency Networks Including the Air Transport System 2 Environmental Policy Including Air Pollution and Noise Abatement V Problems of Expressway Building Policy 1 Problems in the Optimum Locational Policy 2 The Future Tasks for the Creation of Comprehensive Optimum Network System VI Needs of Air Transportation System 1 Needs of Safety Air Routes and Airports System 2 Needs of Large Scale Environmental Plan in the Large and Medium Size Airports Areas
The construction of the Tohoku Shinkansen between Tokyo and Morioka for 500kms will be completed by 1976. As is well known, Shinkansen is the speediest transportation medium at present that runs on the ground, and it has a great influence upon regions around it. How will the Shinkansen affect the prefectures of Tohoku District, Fukushima, Miyagi, Iwate Aomori Akita and Yamagata by its construction? It cannot be said that the method to calculate the affection upon a rigion is well developed when the speedier transportation medium takes place of the slower one. The authors tired this calculation by means of the Demographic Potential, later succeeded by forming the concept of the Demographic Energy. Demongraphic Potential and Demographic Energy the explained as follows: i, j, k, l region Xi Xj Xk Xl population of each region (in unit of 100 persons) Rij Rik Ril tripping time from i to j, k l…(minute) Putting ΔE=Ei2-Ei1 where Ei1 denotes the value by the older transportation medium and Ei2, the one by the newer medium, them Y in region i increases A Δ E respectively. Y....population employed persons, income trade sales, number of estableshments, motor vehicle, value of manufacturing shipments, etc A....coefficient Thus, ΔE of Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate by Shinkansen operation, can be calculated, and similarly the influence upon Aomori Akita and Yamagata can be estimated. These influences will supposedly give shock to each region. On the other hand the authors know that the shorter the trip time between the cities in a region becomes, the bigger the Demographic Energy results in, and the economic conditions will change greatly as a consequence. Therefore, the economic conditions in a region can be improved by shortening the tripping time among cities in it. In order to make the shock of Tohoku Shinkansen very efficient, the formation of the Dynapolis, shortening the tripping time among cities in a region may be appropriate. The Dynapolis which stands for dynamic polis, is first proposed by C. Doxiadis. For example the authors propose that the Dynapolis in Iwate Prefecture to be formed throngh speeding up the trips among the cities of Ichinoseki, Mizusawa Kitakami Hanamaki and Morioka in Iwate Prefecture.
This paper derives and compares aggregate demand functions for a given product in a spaceles and spatial economy in which buyers are identical in number, income, and tastes. The profit maximizing prices in each system are then derived, following which an analysis is provided of the impact on spatial prices of changing distributions of buyers over the space. The price trends in a population expanding economy are determined, before and after the nation's frontiers have been reached. The paper thus presents a view of how the concept of economic space and, in effect, its related analysis of the prices of spatial sellers yields a theory of the firm which intrinsically contains perspectives vital to research in the fields of economic theory.