The majority of citizens paying proper attention to urban policy mix have now started to harbor a notion that urban policies in the past several decades may not be valued as “a big success”, because of unfortunate and ugly failures reported “to be caused” by the policy actions of the government. These failures have caused the government to “re-organize urban policy mix”, and begin various policy programs named “re-modeling”. When any private actor prepares and implements a new action plan, the most vital input, the human resources necessary to implement the plan, must never be ignored. The regeneration of urban projects implemented by the incumbent cabinet fails to offer an appropriate set of actions to empower both the private and public sectors for creative risk takers equipped with advanced knowledge and technology of risk communication. In order to make the best use of the new strategies, every stakeholder must be able to produce the best set of action plans suited for the strategy, and thus creative capacity for planning stakeholder management must be empowered and up-graded.
Kyoto Protocol which was adopted in 1997 to prevent global warming is the most effective and practical international framework today. According to this Protocol, as one of commitments, Japan has to reduce Green House Gases to 94% of the 1990 level in terms of CO2 by the years between 2008 and 2012 on the average. However it is very difficult to control the emission below that level considering the influence to the economy. Therefore the emission trading is expected to achieve the target efficiently. In this study, we developed the simulation model concerning the Japanese emission trading under Kyoto Protocol. We verified the feasibility of emission trading. This model controls CO2 emissions and maximizes GDP. The simulation model is based on a dual input-output model which is based on the material and value balances. We analyzed three cases on conditions that emission permit prices are from 500 to 1,000 thousands yen. Case 1 is free control emission. Case 2 aims at the target of Kyoto Protocol by emission trading, and Case 3 assumes more moderate restriction of emission which involves the forest deposit. These simulations are based on the data of 2000. As a result of the simulation, critical price in Japan was about five or six thousands yen per ton-CO2. GDP decreased as emission permits price increased. However the reduced rate was less than 0.53% for Case 1. Furthermore on the condition that emission permits are under ten thousands yen, the reduced rate was only 0.04%. On the other hand, CO2 emissions were the same or more than that in Case 1. This result shows that reduction in the gross CO2 emissions only by a restriction of emissions is very difficult. Therefore trading emissions permits is considered as an effective measure and makes incentives to reduce net emissions of CO2.
This paper aims to clarify the mechanism of enlarging interregional disparity, and its relationship with internal migration from retarded to advanced regions. For this purpose, China was divided into three regions: advanced coastal region, retarded inland region and middle region. These regions were further divided into two areas (urban, rural) and two sectors (formal, informal), and a time-series data set (1978-2001) was constructed. Based on this data set, a three region-two area-two sector econometric model was developed and various simulations implemented. Inter-provincial migration and urbanization trends are important factors when discussing the development of the Chinese economy, trends in interregional disparity and perspectives of inland region development. However, statistical information, empirical surveys and econometric studies on the magnitude and patterns of internal migration, the extent of remittance by workers to their homeland, and the possible effects on migration are scarce. This paper aims to fill this gap. I first estimated the time trends of labor productivities in formal and informal sectors in urban and rural areas, and 30 interregional migration flows and 6 intraregional migration flows between various areas. I estimated the distribution of educational careers (semi-illiterate, elementary school, middle-school, senior-high-school and university graduates) in urban and rural areas, and introduced as an important explaining variable to affect the labor productivities and internal migration. According to the Harris-Todaro formula, the formal employment and unemployment exist in urban area, and the migration from rural to urban area is induced based on the comparison between the urban formal sector wage discounted by unemployment rate and the rural wage. In reality most of the unutilized labor in urban area are not completely unemployed, but are pooled as the employment in informal sector with low labor productivities. I intend to describe this tendency, and to present an internal migration model with most precise subdivision in developing economies. I constructed an econometric model based on the time-series data (1978-2004) of three regions, and implemented various simulations to clarify the effects of deregulation of internal migration, changes of educational career distribution, increase of foreign direct investment, and Western region development plan upon the economic growth and internal migration.
This study investigates the effects of migration across Chinese provinces and the regional disparity by assuming migration in a multi-regional growth model. The simulation results show that the population in developed regions such as Shanghai and Guangdong is increasing by provincial migration whereas the population in the underdeveloped regions such as Guizhou is decreasing. Moreover, economic growth accelerates as the factor distribution among regions becomes more efficient. Furthermore, although migration reduces expansion of the regional disparity, this effect is limited.
The aim of this study is to clarify behavior of visitors of local production for local consumption style morning fair, and its factors. This morning fair in Kurashiki city is held with the purpose to activate an urban center area. Questionnaires and transportation research were administered to 318 visitors (3.6% extraction rate) at the Kurashiki morning fair. Based on the results of the survey, visitors' behavior and its factors were clarified by covariance structure analysis and other methods. The main results are as follows: 1) Compared with general shopping behavior, the morning fair has a higher percentage of middle-aged and older visitors, who are either pedestrians or users of public transportation. 2) According to the visitors, there are two good points of morning fair: “To be able to buy inexpensive and rare goods,” and “To be able to experience a festive mood.” 3) The morning fair has a strong effect on urban regeneration because of average expenditures of nearly 3,000 yen and the high visiting frequency. 4) It has no cooperation with other tourist attractions in Kurashiki city because majority of visitors lives in the morning fair's neighborhood. 5) Existing traffic infrastructure couldn't cope with increased visitors from other areas.
This paper examines the feasibility of FTA/EPA in a three-country international duopoly model where one importing country and two identical exporting countries exist, and where each government may implement an import tariff and an export subsidy as trade policies. In this paper, FTA is defined as the elimination of export subsidy and import tariff among member countries, and EPA is defined as the elimination of such trade policies among member countries and the income transfer as an economic cooperation among member countries. The main conclusions are as follows. [i] The FTA between an importing country and an exporting country is not formed irrespective of the timing of trade policy, whereas the EPA is formed under specific conditions when the timing of trade policy is simultaneous. [ii] If the EPA between the importing country and the exporting country is formed, the EPA benefits a non-member exporting country and increases world welfare. [iii] The welfare of the importing country (of the exporting countries) is greater (less) than that in free trade even though world welfare is at the same level as in free trade.
This paper examines strategic trade policy games for firms of importing and exporting countries played as Stackelberg duopolies. We show that, if the firm of an importing country is a Stackelberg leader, the government of the importing country behaves as a leader imposing an import tariff, while the exporting country becomes a follower subsidizing the firm. Contrarily, if the firm of the exporting country is a Stackelberg leader, the government of the exporting country does not intervene and the importing country chooses to function as a leader by imposing an import tariff. Interestingly we discovered the equilibrium of the latter case is identical to that of Collie (1994) in which the firm of each country played a Cournot duopoly.
This paper investigates the consequences of tax competition in a simple dynamic model. Because capital accumulation is allowed the standard conclusions of the tax competition literature were generalized in the dynamic model. First, we showed that the capital tax rate chosen by jurisdictional governments is not zero even when head taxes on immobile residents are available. Second, a decentralized economy may be characterized by an overprovision of local public goods. Finally, capital tax competition brings about not only over accumulation of capital stock but also under accumulation of capital stock.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the distribution of broadcasting revenues by sports leagues. When sports leagues have monopolistic status (for example U.S. sports leagues), the optimal revenue sharing rules of the leagues are equal sharing. In contrast, when sports leagues operate in a competitive environment (for example football leagues of European countries), the optimal revenue sharing rules of leagues are perfomance-based reward schemes. Furthermore, each league under a competitive environment is trapped in a ‘prisoner's dilemma'. Therefore, this paper also introduces two ways of slipping out of the prisoner's dilemma.
Consumers shopping at a downtown commercial area usually visit several places and shops while changing their purpose on the way and deciding where to purchase what commodity. Such behaviors, known as “kaiyu” in Japanese, are called “shop-around behavior”. Its precise definition is an evolution of consumers' triple decisions about destination, aim, and expenditure on their way to move around a downtown. While analyzing and predicting such consumers' behaviors is quite important for various objectives, it has been quite a difficult task because one must take into account not only the changes of above consumers' triple decisions at once on the one hand but also the complex factors affecting those decisions like consumers' profiles such as their age, sex, budget, shopping attitude etc., as well as the characteristics of shopping trip such as having or not having accompanying person, its arrival time, weekday or holiday of its occurrence, etc., at the same time on the other. In fact, most of all previous studies could have been paying only attention to the changes of visited places. Thus the problem of how to deal with simultaneous changes of triple decisions has long been left open. This paper first addresses this problem. To tackle the problem of modeling complex shop-around behaviors, we employ Bayesian Networks (BN) method, which is a recently developed new statistical method suitable for representing complex phenomena involving many influencing factors and uncertainties, i.e., random variables. The distinct character of BN is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) representation, which is composed of nodes of random variables and directed arcs expressing dependence relations among nodes. The purpose of this paper is twofold: First, we apply the structural leaning algorithm of Bayesian Networks to the actual data of consumers' shop-around behaviors obtained at Downtown of Fukuoka City, Japan to extract from the real data a hidden DAG structure that represents a relational structure among shops formed by consumers' shop-around behaviors. Second, by constructing a hypothetical DAG structure by hand for consumers' shop-around behavior, we apply the parameter learning algorithm to learn from the same real data the conditional probabilities for the nodes in the DAG in order to make probabilistic inference to extract the significant information from the real data. From the structural learning, we have extracted two DAG structures for both genders to find the fact that female visitors are more likely to seek variety in their shop-around. Based on the result of learning the conditional probabilities, we have provided two cases of inferences. One case has shown us the most utilized shop for waiting to meet but revealed the fact that visitors who use the shop as meeting are not likely to visit the same shop as other sopping purposes than meeting, which had been unknown to us. With these results, we have shown that the efficacy and applicability of the BN method for modeling complex consumers' shop-around behaviors.
We analyze income growth effects on the internal long-distance migration in Japan from 1955 to 2000 mainly by 5-year-ageing processes. It is one of the most basic and important methods to analyze population phenomena by cohorts. We have, however, only a few preceding papers using this method in Japan. Area division is Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto-Nairiku, Kanto-Rinkai, Tokai, Hokuriku, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, Kyushu (Okinawa Prefecture is omitted). We use modified net migration model with respect to income growth using 90 pool data (10 areas and 9 periods): (1) dependent variable is net migration rate calculated using national census data by 5 or 10 year age groups and (2) independent variables are real personal income per capita (RI), average temperature (AT) and 24 indices of social amenities. The main results of our analysis are summarized as follows. (1) Growth of national RI after World War II affected a reduction in the income coefficient β of net migration because of regional income differentials in aging process from the age group of 10-19 to the age group of 15-24. β increased proportionally as regional income differentials of Japan increased in aging process from the age group of 20-24 to the age group of 25-29. (2) Evidences that growth of national RI caused an increase in the AT coefficient γ was not obtained. (3) However, the coefficients of indices for social amenities, such as crime rate and day care, increased with growth of national RI.
A reliable benefit evaluation is highly needed for efficient consolidation of rural parks. This paper aims to analyze relations between willingness-to-pay (WTP) value and visitation frequency by using a gravity model and a contingent valuation (CV) model with consideration of site heterogeneity in the pooled data. The results showed that, (i) the total WTP value decreased in accordance with distance not because of a decreasing tendency in the WTP value itself, but because visitation frequencies were affected by distance, (ii) the WTP value of only visitors corresponded well to the evaluation values by the travel cost method, but the WTP value of all residents did not because the non-use values were evaluated mostly by non-visitors, and (iii) site heterogeneity caused a serious affect on the estimations of the gravity model estimated by reveled preference data, but not in the CV model with stated preference data. From these results, we conclude that the WTP value of the rural park should be estimated with consideration of the residents' visitation behavior in order to avoid excess benefits derived from non-visitors and the technique proposed here is useful in the application of the CV method to pooled data.
Based on a household survey of Anhui Province's Fuyang County in China, this paper investigates the determinants of employment, checks the effect of human capital on income and seeks to identify the main determinants of the off-farm participation trends in rural areas with high population densities. Econometric models were constructed to evaluate the determinants and effects of human capital on circular migration, local wage employment and self-employment. The results obtained from the model demonstrate that education has no positive effect on circular migration of rural labor. However, it was shown that education has a significant effect on rural labor with high wages and steady jobs. Rural laborers always obtain off-farm jobs from family members, relatives or friends rather than on their own, demonstrating the rural labor market is not mature. It is not likely farmers that own only their own labor can get steady income in urban areas by circular migration. Compared to other factors, investment in skill training is presently low so the final solution is to increase skill training in rural areas.
Bangladesh is well known for her natural disasters such as floods and cyclones. Although Bangladesh has a higher amount of water per capita than most countries in the world, she often suffers from water shortages and droughts. Since the 1980s, groundwater (of hand tube wells) has been used for drinking and cooking all over the country to avoid water borne diseases. However, since 1993 tube wells in most parts of Bangladesh have become contaminated with high amounts of arsenic (0.05 mg/liter). In this paper the water situation of a village (Taranagar) severely affected by the arsenic problem is discussed based on a survey conducted in 2005. High levels of arsenic contaminated more than 97% of tube wells in this village. More than 90% of all households had patients with arsenicosis, five patients had already died. However, the villagers still remained almost without any effective alternative for a safe water source. The efforts of the Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE) to install ring wells proved to be futile, as it was not possible to dig the wells according to the guidelines, and the water of these ring wells had bad odors. The paper concludes by urging all concerned to provide safe water to the people of Taranagar village.
This study aims to forecast what amount of economic effects the new Fukuoka City Subway Line 3 would induce on city center retail sector. The new Subway Line 3 connects the southwest part of suburban residential area to the city center retail district of Fukuoka. If residents in this area change their travel mode from bus to subway, they drastically can reduce their travel time to the city center from the present 40 or 50 minutes to the coming 20 minutes. The improvement of accessibility would increase their frequency of visits to the city center. We regard this phenomenon as the increase of travel demand to city center since for the residents along Subway Line 3, the relative price of city center goods declines as the generalized travel cost falls. Since the residents increase their frequency of visits, the number of visitors at the city center increases. Thus the turnover of city center retail sector must increase. This increase of turnover was estimated, regarded as the economic effects on city center retail sector induced by the new subway line. We call the above procedure as consumer behavior approach because all the estimation processes hinge on the predictive behavioral changes of consumers after the new subway line, i.e., policy is introduced. To estimate the economic effect, most of traditional transport studies have relied on the user benefits accrued to the decrease of travel time caused by the introduction of new railway. While those previous studies are appropriate for estimating the net economic benefits it must not be so for our present purpose to estimate the economic effects on the retail sector at the restricted area such as city center. Based on the above consumer behavioral approach, first we constructed two models: modal change and visit frequency models. Parameters of these two models are estimated from data obtained from the survey about consumer travel behavior that was conducted at the city center for respondents sampled from visitors there. We delineate the border of the residential tract whose inhabitants have the possibility to use the new subway line. The resulted tract contains divisions of 278 residential addresses. Using these two estimated models we forecast modal choice, frequency of visits to the city center, and expenditure at the city center by residents for each of 278 residential divisions and then sum them up. As a result, the amount of economic effects of the new subway line on the city center retail sector of Fukuoka City turns out to be 17.7 billion yen per year.
This paper focuses on Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Programs in Nong Khae and Nong Done districts in Sarabri province, Central Thailand. This program started in 2003 to introduce IPM technology to local rice farmers for the purpose of “reduction of pesticides use” and “reduction of production cost.” The investigations for the IPM technology adoption among farmers and its impacts were carried out by interviewing to 50 rice farmers in both districts. In the IPM program, Farmer Field School (FFS) played the important role to increase farmers' skills and lowering pesticide use in rice. No characteristic (age, educational background, field area etc.) differences between IPM and non-IPM farmers imply that every rice farmers can conduct IPM in reality. IPM farmers, most of them graduated from FFS, succeeded in about 57.5% reduction of pesticide use, and applied pesticide about 1.43 times in a crop season while non-IPM farmers applied about 2.6 times. This lowering pesticide uses contributed to reduction of production costs and risks of health and environment. However, the outcomes by IPM adoption will be much greater if the population of IPM farmers in the districts increases; network externality. For this, it is necessary to consider the process from the prevalence of IPM technology by FFS to the diffusion of IPM technology through FFS participants to nonparticipants. This activity should be enhanced by continuing FFS approach in the districts, identifying health and environmental impacts of IPM practices, and opening IPM rice markets.
This paper presents a study on a Local-Governance Management System in South Korea. We focus on management of the Kwang-Yang Coastal and Ocean Environment, which is a large-scale coastal development project in South Korea. The study aims to propose a new management model in a local municipality for the Coastal Environment. The environment management systems of coastal development projects are examined in the case study areas, and problems of the coastal environment management discussed. The authors emphasize that citizens as users of the coastal areas, local municipalities and Non-Governmental Organizations should form a partnership and take a networking role in the proposed management system.
Understanding individual modal choice decisions is fundamental when developing and planning transportation systems. Developing precise travel behavior models and testing their forecasting capabilities also have an important role. This study provides empirical analysis of the temporal transferability of Multinomial Logit and Neuro-Fuzzy Multinomial Logit models. In the estimation context, the results of the models are compared with the actual modal choices to investigate their accuracy. In the application context, the evaluation of the models is based on predictive performances, where models re-calibrated from a small data sample and models transferred from the estimation context are evaluated. Accordingly, a sensitivity analysis that aims to examine travelers' behavior under the transportation system changes is presented. Overall, the Neuro-Fuzzy Multinomial Logit model performs better than the Multinomial Logit model. However, both models do not show satisfactory forecasting behavior when directly transferred to the application context. The classical Logit model is not able to correctly represent the influence of Parking Cost on modal choices, although this attribute is identified as statistically important for modeling modal choices. However, the neuro-fuzz model has shown that travelers are very sensitive to variations on parking fees, which was implemented as a strategic policy action so as to motivate changes in travelers' behavior towards sustainable transport modes. The results of this study suggest that travelers' behavior could be better explained by incorporating the neuro-fuzzy utility functions into the Multinomial Logit model rather than using the classical Multinomial Logit structure.
JEL Classification: R4 Transportation Studies R41 Transportation: Demand, Supply and Congestion Safety and Accidents, Transportation Noise