The purpose of this study is to analyse migration patterns and their factors, and to build the migration model with which the effect of new industrial location can be estimated. At first, I will discuss the definition of depopulation, the cause of depopulation and its effect to the region. Secondly, I will analyse migration patterns and their factors, and build the migration model in a depopulated region. Thirdly, I will build the model with which the effect of the new industrial location in a depopulated region can be estimated. The flow chart of this model is as follows:
The theoretical framework of our Global METS Model was presented in the previous volume of Papers of this Association (Reference ). As a continuing project, we have estimated the empirical structure of the model and also have made some simulation analyses of the model for the future in order to trace the economic effect of the nation-wide transprot investment project in an interregional setting. The statistical estimation of the model has been carried out by the direct least squares method after reformulating the model as a recursive system mainly using 1953-1967 regional data of Japan. This simplified method of estimation is inevitable because of a tremendous number of individual equations in our model. (We have 3100 equations approximately.) We have been forced to change the functional form of a large number of the estimated equations to improve the performance of the structure as a whole when it has been simulated for the past by the so-called final test technique. Some of such changes have regrettably involved theoretical setback from the original formulation of our Global METS Model. The main points of the changes are: (1) Abolishment of the gravity-type model concerning interregional commodity flows. As a substitute, a simplified version of the Frator method using the marginal distribution of the origin-and-destination table has been employed. (2) Deletion of the congestion variables in the interregional and modal distance functions. (3) Alteration in the formula to derive realized regional income produced. Instead of Min (TVP, TVE), we employed a weighted average approach: (αTVP+βTVE). Three kinds of conditional forecasting based on three different hypothetical past and future time paths of the exogenous variables (1967-1985) have been performed. The three time paths can be described as trend type, priority-in-road construction type I, and the same type II (emphasis on the decentralization policy). Contrary to our expectation, the three methods have not produced any big difference between their forecasts. For the first case, we have had more than 10% average annual growth rate of the produced income for the whole nation until 1985 (Hokkaido_??_8.6%, Tohoku_??_8.3%, Kanto_??_12%, Tokai_??_10%, Hokuriku_??_10%, Kinki_??_9.7%, Chugoku_??_11%, Shikoku_??_12%, and Kyushu_??_7.4%). Our forecasting model must be revised in many respeets including the establishment of a unified method of project evaluation.
This study was done to dynamically estimate the social and economic movements in the area, which would be much influenced by the results of industrial development of the area. We have considered the area as one social system, as it is essentially made up of human beings. We have adopted the System Dynamics (SD) method to more easily investigate the dynamic behaviour of the social system which contain within itself so called non linearlity and other characteristics that the conventional method would hardly handle. SD is a system analysis method developed by Professor J. W. Forrester and his group at MIT. This method is recently attracting much attention. Following are two major study points of SD adoption: 1) Basic close exmianation as a regional analysis method 2) To investigate dynamic behaviour problems of the large-scale industrial development of Mutsu-Ogawara area (see Figure 1) in Aomori Prefecture For the purpose of (2), we have made up model (Model I) illustrated by the flow-diagram of Figure 3, after doing a number of computer simulations. Figure 4 is one of these results. As for (1), we are confident of the usability of SD through these experiential works, but more objective and clearer investigation must be carried over to the future. These studies of ours are still continuing. Here, we could only reprot the results of our works at the first stage. At present, we are working to analyse the work of “Model II”, which is an improved and extended type of Mdoel I, about whose results we would like to bring out in the near future.
1. How many passengers flew to and from Japan? In 1954, the number of travellers transported between Japan and the rest of the world was 115, 000. It increased to 3, 600, 000 in 1970. The average annual rate of increase during the 16 years was 20% or 10 per cent above the average of the world. The following six features are found in those passenger traffic: a. Japanese passengers grew in number very rapidly b. Americans formed a large percentage of all foreigners —50% of all c. transit passengers accounted for a high percentage of all —30% d. most of the passengers flew on the routes connecting Japan with North America, Hawaii and the countries in Southeast Asia e. travellers for pleasure rose conspicuously in number year after year f. Japanese travellers' originating points and foreign tourists' visiting places in Japan multiplied in number year by year Since the volume of air traffic in the Tokyo and Osaka area had grown so much as to exceed their capacity, a new international airport was decided to be built at Narita in Chiba prefecture, and its construction has nearly been completed: the one for the Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto area is under consideration now. 2. What percentage Kyushu accounts for? As in other areas in Japan, the majority of international travellers originating and arriving in the Kyushu district is now carried by plane, and Fukuoka airport in Fukuoka prefecture is Kyushu's main gateway for cultural exchange with foreign nations. The features in the flow of travellers accomodated by the airport are as follows: a. Japanese nationals predominate the tourists b. all the travellers fly either between Japan and Okinawa—now in Japanese possession—or between Japan and the Southeast Asian countries c. number of the international passengers passed through Itatzuke accounts for only 3% of all the international passengers of Japan How many international travellers in 1985? The volume of passenger traffic will grow, though it may rise and fall with business conditions, in the long run. The introduction of jumbo jets and SSTs is expected to encourage air travels. It is foreseen that, in 1985, the volume will reach 44, 700, 000 in number, and that the cargo traffic will reach 315, 000 metric tons: The number of Japanese tourists will rise further, and will command 57% of all: the visiting places of Japanese travellers in foreign countries and those of foreign travellers in Japan will be dispersed more widely than they are now. How many will fly to and from Kyushu in future? It is forecasted that Kyushu will form 4% of all Japan's international passengers in 1985, and that the Japanese will account for 60% of the Kyushu passengers: Fukuoka's volume of traffic will form 30% of all Kyushu's passengers: the number of travellers enplaning and deplaning in the Kyushu district will be 74, 000 in the year, excluding those who fly between Kyushu and the People's Republic of China, if the district remains to be directly connected solely with the Southeast Asian countries by airliner service. Does Kyushu need another international aerodrome? Though the above forecast of the passenger traffic seems to lead to the conclusion that there is no need for a new international airportin the district, the present writer firmly believes, for the following reasons, that it is absolutely necessary for Kyushu to have one. And as for its site, the writer wishes to locate it in Fukuoka prefecture, Saga prefecture or in the north of Kumamoto prefecture preferably. a. It was principally a very rapid growth in domestic passenger traffic that has caused the volume of air traffic in the two areas in Honshu or the Main Island to reach capability limit of the two airports.
An optimal process of urban spatial growth is studied in this paper. The problem analyzed in this paper is to allocate the total increase of each urban facility, of which total amount for the whole region is given exogenously at each time, among the urban area at each time so as to maximize the total benefit obtained from these facilities over the entire planning periods. It is assumed that each facility in each area cant be moved to other areas once it is constructed. The benefit obtainable from each unit of each facility per each time is assumed to be decreasing linearly from the urban center. The demolition of each facility is ignored. By using the maximum principle in the optimal control theory, the general solution for this problem is obtained. The land price in each area to sustain this optimal growth is also obtained.
Recently there happened so-called “Garbage and Refuse War” in Tokyo. The fundamental issues of it are i) the external diseconomies produced by the disposal of garbage and refuse and ii) the geographical distribution of the external diseconomies. Relevant external diseconomies are air pollusion produced by the incineration, air pollusion, noise and traffic congestion produced by transporting garbage and refuse etc. The pattern of geographical distribution of the external diseconomies depends on the disposal system adopted. It is plausible that the incineration has scale economies. However the benefit of scale economies can be realized only when transprotation activity is intensively used, that is, one incineration covers relatively broad collecting area. “Garbage and Refuse War” has arisen from the minimization of pecuniary disposal costs incurred by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, neglecting the jointly produced external diseconomies. The optimal disposal system should be that of minimizing the social costs, that is, the sum of direct disposal costs and the external diseconomies, given the total amount and geographical distribution of garbage and refuse. If an appropriate pricing is introduced, the social costs of the disposal system could be reduced.
The present paper aims at building a regional programming model under such constraints as pollution level, harmonized composition of population in a comunity, compatibility of industrial settings and so on. Thus we try to find the welfare oriented optimal regional development plan. The procedure consists of the two phases. The first phase aims at excluding undesirable sites in the study area through technical, ecological, and sociological considerations. The second phase consists in assigning the optimal size and category of industries to each planning unit survived in the first phase test. The model adopted in the second phase is an investment optimization model as a generalization of cost-benefit analysis and is described by linear programming model, i.e. the resident_??_ social welfare (represented by total income) should be maximized under the constraints of incompatibility of industries, air and water pollution levels and desirable distribution of generation in comunities. The results of the computation shows that no feasible solutions exist as far as the actual pollutant emission coefficient and the actual environmental control level. Parametric programming procedure was, therefore, performed assuming various reduced levels of pollutant emission possibly realized through future technical innovation. Thus we the final results of the computations give a set of trade-off relations between resident' welfare and regional development plans.
The purpose of this paper is to survey the contributions that have been made by Japanese to the theory and empirical study of regional science in the last one decade since the Japan Section of RSA was organized in June 1962. It will be clear that the survey cannot hope to cover all of regional science. We have accordingly restricted ourselves to the theoretical literature appeared in The Annual Reprot of Japan Section, Studies in Regional Science, Papers and Proceedings of the Pacific Regional Science Conference of the RSA, Papers of the RSA, Journal of Regional Science, etc.