Notwithstanding that the econometric models appear to us a useful tool for studying regional science, Regional Economics has not yet accepted them with a warm welcome so same as they now enjoy in the fields of Economics. In this paper we apply an econometric model to studying out the problem of unfavorable balance of city finance for regional development, taking an example to Kobe-City region.
There is a widespread opinion among regional planners and research workers that the crude theory of economic base serve as a short-cut in analysing the structure and in assessing the developmental possibilities of a region. By making the assumption that the so-called basic-nonbasic ratio is a constant, this theory usually carries a central notion of one-way relationships; a change in the basic industries causes a change in the nonbasic industries. A region, however, may very well continue to grow, even if its basic industries do not expand. There is really no conceivable reason why those industries which produce for the expart market are referred to basic and all other industries which produce for the local market are referred to nonbasic, and also why only the former are claimed to constitute the foundation of the region's economic growth. As we know, the Moses' model of interregional input-output is far more comprehensive to understand how the regional economy functions; this model which hopeful will improve the rough idea of base approach by a process of flow disaggregation. This might be of some interesting problem in this field. In this paper, we try to move in small steps for measuring the basicness of an industry to a region. That is, our point is to measure not only the degree to which the industry itself is a basic industry but the degree to which the industry is vital to the region, in other words the greater degree of direct and indirect effects from the both side of interindustry and interregional trading structure. It is our hope that our framework and findings in case study used the data of commodity flow may help to throw some light on the developmental possibility of the regional economy.
Measuring the increase rates of employed persons by industry and prefectures from 1955 to 1960 in Japan, we find considerable difference between the regional increase rates of employed persons in the i th sector of industry (i=1, 2, 3). In this analysis, the economic factors affecting the difference are studied by means of econometric method. I made the following models to study the factors. where ΔPi/Pi is the regional increase rates of employed Persons in the ith sector of industry (ΔPi is the regional increase of the persons employed in the ith sector of industry, and Pi is the regional persons employed in the ith sector of industry), Ii is the variable which expresses the level of income of the ith sector of industry, and Ji is the variable which expresses the job opportunity of the ith sector of industry. By this analysis, it was found that (1) the factor affecting the difference between the regional increase rates of persons employed in the 1st sector of industry was the level of income, (2) the factor affecting the difference between the regional increase rates of persons employed in the 2nd sector of industry was job opportunity, and, (3) the factors affecting the difference between the regional increase rates of persons employed in the 3rd sector of industry were the level of income and job opportunity.
Metropolitan area in this country is bound to expand because of its location being so advantageous to the rest of Japan. In twenty years the population in this area is said to expand to approximately to 30, 000, 000. And the pattern of the life in the big city group is inevitably to change owing to the change of the scale. While in modern Japan city planning has never been properly done in spite of the functions expected to the city has tremendously increased. Water problem is one of the most important ones still not properly considered. The objective of this paper is to test briefly for the eleven years the possiblity of supplying water to cities in Metropolitan area considering seasonal fluctuations, which affects flux of river and consumption of water in the related cities, in a simulation model of Tone River and adjacent ones. If the demand of water in Tokyo (including Santama area) for all purposes is to swell up to around 13, 343 thousand to 17, 401 thousand qubic meter per day (even this volume of water divided by population of, say, 20, 000, 000 is nothing but 0.87 qubic meter per day and a Person), keen shortage is expected to occur in the present situation. To solve the problem there are two ways. One is to rationalize the agricultural use of water in the rice pad and the second is to build big dams and operate them in an integrated way. However the operation of the dams is not considered in the present model. In spite of the defects inherent in the present model it has shown the anticipated demand and necessary volume of water which must be supplied from the rationalization of dams and an integrated operation of them. Water problem is not the sort of the problem which could be solved easily in a short space oftime. Development plan must be based on the future demand long before people suffer from acute shortage of water.
This study is a systematic approach to the design of mechanical equipment for traffic control, which covers whole central urban core. Today's synchronized traffic signal is programmed for a single street traffic flow, but this equipment must be programmed for the whole urban traffic jam. Therefore, we should not find any crossway indicating red simultaneously in both direction. So we must study the strictly logical control system and never forget the autonomy of human driven car-flow.
As a resin of the overconcentration of population and industry, metropolitan regions in Japan are finding it difficult to arrange for public facilities to cope with the imminent needs, and it is earnestly requested that these public facilities will be reinforced as urgently as possible. Consequently, the choice of a program of physical planning project including an evaluation of public investment is one of the most important decisions to be made in the design of a regional development policy. Original mathematical models have been developed as a theory of noncooperative games to make an optimal plan from the physical point of view. In these models, optimal physical plan will depend upon the evaluation criterion applied, which will present different conceptual and measurement problem. A rational, choice can only be made with the aid of an explicitly formulated criterion. Then, the simplified econometric. models have also been prepared to deal with an evaluation of investment for regional public works from the standpoint of indirect effect.