2024年8月8日の日向灘地震を契機に発出された南海トラフ地震臨時情報（巨大地震注意）は，巨大地震注意情報の社会的受容性をめぐる日本で初めての「社会実験」であり，地震情報の科学的合理性と社会的合理性を考察する上で大変重要な事例である。本研究は，南海トラフ地震情報の制度化の経緯とその制度的特質の考察から，地震情報の科学的合理性と社会的合理性について考える。現在の南海トラフ地震情報制度は，1978年の大規模地震対策特別措置法（大震法）に基づく東海地震情報制度にルーツがある。南海トラフ地震情報制度は，地震予知を前提とした東海地震情報制度に強い経路依存性を示すものである。また，本研究は，2024年8月8日の南海トラフ地震臨時情報（巨大地震注意）の情報発出の前後における市民の地震情報の認識変化を考察し，現在の南海トラフ地震情報制度の問題点と課題を明らかにする。最後に，南海トラフ地震臨時情報（巨大地震注意）の科学的合理性と社会的合理性について考察し，必ずしも十分な科学的合理性のない地震情報であっても，社会的合理性を認めうる地震情報がありうることを論じる。ただし，その場合は，トランス・サイエンス的課題へのアプローチの基本である科学と政治と社会の協働による「対話の場」＝「学びの場」の形成が，不可欠な必要条件であることを結論として述べる。

東京都23区の市民28名を対象とし，M8以上の巨大地震発生の科学的不確実性と長期的地震対策に関する3回の市民会議を開催した。3回の市民会議の前後に実施した6回のアンケート調査を基に，地震発生の不確実性や長期的地震対策に関する市民の認識変化を分析した。アンケートへの回答を得点化し，6回のアンケートの得点を順次積算した「積算プロット図」を作成し，目的変数としてのM8クラスの長期的地震対策の必要性を設定し，説明変数として設定した科学的不確実性に関する認識などとの関係を分析した。

分析の結果，市民が地震発生確率の科学的不確実性を認識することは，地震学者や防災専門家への社会的信頼を損なうものではないことが示された。従来の研究では，地震発生確率の科学的不確実性を市民が認識することは地震学者や防災専門家への信頼を低下させるとの研究もあった。しかし，本研究の結果は，科学的不確実性を市民が認識することは，地震学や防災科学への信頼の低下には繋がらないことを，専門家と市民による「対話の場」という文脈型リスク・ミュニケーションによって示した。このことは，Nakayachi et al. （2018）と同様の研究結果を，中谷内らとは異なる方法で実証的に示したといえる。

また，参加市民ごとの積算プロット図分析の結果，市民は一様な集団ではなく，長期的地震対策を積極的に支持する市民グループ，長期的地震対策を中庸に支持する市民グループ，長期的地震対策を消極的に支持する市民グループという3つに分かれることが示された。また，同じ市民グループにおいても，複数の考え方のパターンに分類が可能であることも示された。特に，政策を消極的に支持する市民グループは，アンケートの初回あるいは後半だけで政策を消極的に支持したり，アンケートを通して積極的支持と消極的支持を繰り返す市民が存在することが特徴である。

また，地震対策を積極的に支持する市民グループと中庸あるいは消極的に支持する市民グループは，地震発生の予測技術の評価項目や国や東京都への信頼に関わる項目では，政策選好によるグループの違いに依らず，同じ評価傾向を示すことが確認された。長期的地震対策に関する市民の類型化が可能であることや市民に共通する項目の存在は，地層処分に関わる市民会議で松岡他（2021）が示した研究結果と共通するといえる。

今後は，市民の科学リテラシーの向上のための対話型（文脈モデル）リスク・コミュニュケーションの具体化や双方向型の災害情報制度のデザインなどの社会イノベーションが望まれる。

In the previous papers of this Journal no.22 (March 2014), no.31 (March 2018), no.41 (March 2021), no.42 (Oct 2021) and no.44 (March 2022) the author discussed the development of bilateral relations between Japan and Vietnam from 2002 to 2013, from 2014 to 2015, from 2016 to 2017, from 2018 to 2019 and from 2020 to 2021 respectively.

Following them, this article discusses the development of Japan–Vietnam relations in and around 2021.

The First Section of this paper briefly overviews the COVID-19 pandemics in Vietnam and Japan throughout 2021.

The Second section summarizes Prime Minister Suga’s general policy speech and Foreign Minister Motegi’s foreign policy speech, in January 2021 National Diet, concerning Japan–ASEAN relations.

The Third Section overviews online meetings between Japanese and Vietnamese leaders in 2021.

The Fourth Section overviews online meetings between Japanese and ASEAN leaders and between Japanese and Mekong countries’ leaders in 2021.

The Fifth Section describes Defense Minister Kishi’s visit to Vietnam and the signing of the Agreement concerning the transfer of military equipment and technology between Japan and Vietnam in September 2021. And relating to the Agreement, the author looks back various documents concerning the defense cooperation between the two countries.

The Sixth Section discusses the Japan–Vietnam summit meeting during Prime Minister Kishida’s stay in Glasgow UK to attend the COP 26 summit in November 2021.

The Seventh Section describes Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính’s visit of Japan, three weeks after the summit meeting mentioned above. Especially the author gives detailed accounts concerning the summit meeting between Premier Kishida and Premier Chinh, their joint statement, the signing of various cooperation documents, and their joint press announcement. Furthermore, relating to the Japan–Vietnam investment conference with Premier Chinh’s attendance, the author also briefly overviews the past similar business conferences and exchanges.

The Eighth Section refers to the Exchange of Notes concerning the Japanese grant to Vietnam (a used ocean research vessel) in April 2021, together with the trace-back overview concerning the Japanese supports for Vietnamese ocean management since 2014.

The Ninth Section deals with the temporary closure of Japanese consular office in Danang due to the COVID-19 pandemic from May to September 2021.

The Tenth Section focuses on the eighth batch of EPA nurse/care worker candidates’ entry to Japan in September 2021, together with a brief survey of the past agreements concerning the EPA nurse/care worker candidates and the number of their arrival in Japan and successful applicants of national examinations from the first to the eleventh batches.

The Eleventh Section discusses about the Eighth Phase of Japan Vietnam Joint Initiative from the kickoff meeting (in October 2021) to the final evaluation meeting (in March 2023), together with the brief trace-back from the First Phase (2003–2005) to the Seventh Phase (2018–2019).

In the previous papers of this Journal no.22(March 2014), no.31(March 2018), no.41(March 2021), no.42(Oct 2021), no.44(March 2022), and no.51(Oct 2025), the author discussed the development of bilateral relations between Japan and Vietnam from 2002 to 2013, from 2014 to 2015, from 2016 to 2017, from 2018 to 2019, in 2019, and in and around 2021 respectively. Following them, this article discusses Japan‒Vietnam exchange events during the first half of the 2020s.

The First Section of this paper refers to the Vietnam Festival usually held in Yoyogi Park of Tokyo. The Second Section focuses on the Vietnam Festival in Ikebukuro, Tokyo, as well as in Fukuoka and Osaka. The Third Section deals with the Vietnam Festival in Aichi-Nagoya. The Fourth Section discusses the Vietnam Festa in Kanagawa. The Fifth Section refers to other exchange events in various parts of Japan.

The Sixth Section deals with the Japan Vietnam Festival in Hochiminh City. The Seventh Section refers to the Kanagawa Festival in Hanoi. The Eighth Section focuses on the Hoi An Japan Festival (Japan-Vietnam Cultural Exchange Festival). The Ninth Section deals with the Danang Vietnam-Japan Cultural Exchange Festival. And the Tenth Section discusses the Hanoi Sakura Festival.

This article is the second part following the first installment published in No. 50 of Asia-Pacific Studies. While the first part introduced a considerable number of Nitta documents, no such documents exist for the period covered in this second part. Therefore, this installment relies solely on the Nitta Diary.

Yoshimi Nitta’s second tenure as the Bangkok branch manager of Mitsubishi Corporation (Mitsubishi Shoji Kaisha, Ltd.) lasted from September 1941 to June 1943. However, this part also includes Thailand-related matters that Nitta was involved with during his time stationed in Japan. As such, the Nitta Diary presented here spans from August 1939 to March 1945.

Nitta’s work was closely tied to Japanese policy and involved deep connections with the Japanese Embassy and the Army and Navy. At the same time, his interactions with Thai elites extended beyond professional duties to personal relationships.

During World War II, Nitta emerged as a strategic non-governmental actor in Japan’s Track II diplomacy in Thailand—that is, informal dialogue and relationship-building that complemented official intergovernmental channels.

From the Nitta Diary, it is evident that Nitta not only maintained business relations but also formed personal friendships with several cabinet members of the Pibul administration—such as Direk, Vichitr, Varn, Vilas, Vanich, Kovid (Kuang), Prayoon, Phya Mahai, Chaveng, and Luang Seri—and was consulted by them on various matters. Simultaneously, Nitta leveraged these personal ties with influential Thai figures to actively support the Japanese Embassy’s diplomatic efforts in Thailand.

Several illustrative entries from the Nitta Diary reveal the depth of Nitta’s involvement in Japan–Thailand relations during the war.

On October 17, 1941, Nitta wrote:

“Invited to the private residence of Nai Direk Jayanama [Foreign Minister], who requested my cooperation regarding the control of news. I immediately went to speak with Ambassador Tsubokami, and eventually was treated to dinner before returning. (At Nai Direk’s request, I relayed the issue of news control to Ambassador Tsubokami, who stated that a news attaché would be sent and entrusted with the task.)” From the entry dated October 25, it is clear that Nitta visited Foreign Minister Direk to report the ambassador’s reply.

On December 7, 1941, the diary notes:

“Went to the ambassador’s residence; if necessary, I was told to liaise tonight with Luang Vichitr Vadakarn [Deputy Foreign Minister].” This indicates that, on the eve of the Japanese military’s advance into Thailand, Nitta was designated by Ambassador Tsubokami as the liaison with Deputy Minister Vichitr.

The December 16, 1941 entry reads:

“Nai Vilas Osatananda [Director General of the Department of Publicity] came and stated his resignation from politics. He pleaded that, through Thai Maritime Navigation Co. alone, he would cooperate with Japan, and asked me to help dispel Japan’s unfavorable views as expressed by the Prime Minister.” This reveals that Vilas, who also served as Deputy Minister of Transport, turned to Nitta for help after being dismissed by Prime Minister Pibul under Japanese pressure.

On May 20, 1942, Nitta recorded:

“Visited Minister of Education Prayoon Phamonmontri to consult about the incident in the machinery section,” indicating that he sought advice from Prayoon on a specific administrative matter.

The January 27, 1942 entry states:

“Met with Prime Minister Pibul, presented silk, had a thirty-minute conversation, and expressed gratitude for the decoration.” This confirms that Nitta was awarded the Third Class Order of the Crown of Thailand—a rare honor for a non-governmental civilian—recognizing his contributions.

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