Temporal variation of seismic activity parameterized by the rate of earthquake occurrence,
b-values, seismic energy release and randomness of interoccurrence time of shocks is investigated for three regions in the Pacific coast of north-eastern Japan over the period 1926-1978.
The statistical significance of difference in
b-values between before and after large earthquakes, is occasionally recognized. Change in
b-values is also related to energy release in that
b-values are small when the cumulative energy release steeply increases.
It is well known that, if earthquake occurrence is represented by a stationary and random process in time, the length of time interval (=τ) between consecutive events is exponentially distributed. The stationarity and randomness of earthquake occurrence are examined by using a
x2-test for the goodness of fit of the distribution of interoccurrence times of events to an exponential distribution. It is found that the goodness of fit is strongly related to the rate of earthquake occurrence, being the large
x2 to the high rate of occurrence. Thus the τ-distribution of earthquake group which contains many aftershocks, does not conform itself to the exponential distribution. However, the group of earthquakes that exclude aftershocks of large earthquakes behaves itself like the Poisson process in time for all the period analyzed. Then earthquake occurrence in time can be modeled after the branching Poisson process by Vere-Jones and Davies. Seismic activity is composed of the primary and the secondary events. Activity of the primary events, which occur at random in time, is considered to be proper or stationary seismicity for a region. An actual seismic activity for the region is composed of the proper seismic activity and the secondary events which occur like the non-Poisson process. Accordingly, it can be considered that the temporal variation of seismic activity for a region is mainly due to the successive occurrence of the secondary events.
The rate of occurrence of the primary or proper events for the respective regions are estimated. When the rate of occurrence of actual events for a region drop near the primary rate, it may indicate that the seismicity in the region gets into a stage of seismic gap which is the period of quiescence.
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