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Volume 56, Issue 4
Displaying 1-22 of 22 articles from this issue
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Re-evaluation for the Oncoming Earthquake off Miyagi Prefecture, JapanMasami OKADA2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 327-336
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSI statistically discuss the method for estimating the probability of the next characteristic earthquake in a given time interval from the data on date of earthquakes in the past by using lognormal distribution model, based on the Bayesian approach. We assume that n+1 earthquakes have occurred on a fault or in a source area separated by n time intervals, Ti, of which logarithm, xi=ln(Ti), are considered to follow a normal distribution, N(μ, σ2). Here, μ and σ2 are mean and variance parameters of a normal population distribution, respectively. Then the likelihood accounted for aseismic period since the last event is defined as L(μ, σ2)=(1-FN(xp;μ, σ2))Πni=1fN(xi;μ, σ2), where xp, FN and fN are the logarithm of the time interval of aseismic period, Tp, since the last event, the cumulative distribution function, and the probability density function for N(μ, σ2), respectively. We expect that normalized likelihood represents the density distribution of μ, σ2 based on Bayesian rule with a prior distribution of π(μ, σ2)=1. If μ and σ2 are known, the probability of the next earthquake occurring in the forthcoming period from Tp through Tp+ΔT is denoted by a conditional probability, Pq=(FN(xf;, μ, σ2))/(1-FN(xp;μ, σ2)), where xf=ln(Tp+ΔT). However it is impossible to estimate real values from a small number of data without large error, and we can only know the distribution of parameters to calculate numerically the distribution of Pq as shown in this paper. The distribution of expected time interval, T, from the last event to the next event is computed analytically from a law that √n-3(ln(T)-x)/√(n+1)s2 follows t-distribution of n-3 degrees of freedom. Here x and s2 are mean and variance of data, xi=ln(Ti). And the expected probability of characteristic earthquake occurrence in a time interval ΔT given that no earthquake has occurred in Tp, is the mean of variable Pq or a conditional probability of t-distribution. For the characteristic earthquakes off Miyagi prefecture, Japan, the estimates of probability in the periods of 10, 20 and 30 years after January 2001 are 0.28, 0.62 and 0.80, respectively, using the data set compiled by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. These estimates for 20 and 30 years are smaller than those, about 0.8 and larger than 0.9, given by the committee, respectively. Interval estimates of Pq for those periods are 0.15-0.41, 0.42-0.82 and 0.75-1.0.View full abstractDownload PDF (1524K) -
Atsushi NOZU2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 337-350
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSOne of the major problems associated with the application of the empirical Green's function (EGF) method is that the Fourier spectrum of the synthetic ground motion shows a quite evident fall-off in the frequencies between the corner frequencies of the large and small events. For the purpose of solving this problem, the author proposes an application of Sato and Hirasawa's (1973) circular crack model to the EGF method. It is shown that the synthetic ground motion with this model does not show any evident fall-off from the ω-2 target spectrum, whose corner frequency is determined considering the rupture directivity effects. It is also revealed that the variable rise time assumed in the Sato and Hirasawa's model is the key to the solution of the problem. The validity of the model is discussed in terms of it's final-slip distribution and the area of high-frequency generation. Furthermore, the author proposes modeling the rupture heterogeneities of a large earthquake with the “multiple circular asperity model”. As an example, a multiple circular asperity model is constructed for the 1993 Kushiro-oki Earthquake.View full abstractDownload PDF (2013K) -
Shin'ya TSUKADA, Toshikazu ODAKA, Kimitoshi ASHIYA, Kazuo OHTAKE, Dais ...2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 351-361
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSWe have found that the envelope waveform of the initial part of P waves changes systematically with magnitude and epicentral distance. In order to represent the envelope waveform quantitatively we introduced a simple function of the form of Bt·exp(-At). Two parameters A and B can easily be determined by the least-squares method. The parameter B defines the slope of the initial part of the P-wave envelope and A is related to the amplitude growth or decay with time. When A is positive, B/(Ae) gives the maximum amplitude where e denotes the base of natural logarithm. This case is typical for small earthquakes, indicating that the initial amplitude increases sharply and decays quickly soon after the P-wave arrival. When A is negative, the amplitude increases exponentially with time. This is a characteristic of large earthquakes.
We have found from the analysis of actual seismic data that log B is inversely proportional to the epicentral distance Δ even though the dispersion of data is somewhat large. This relation seems to be independent of earthquake magnitude and thus, by using this relation, we can roughly estimate the epicentral distance immediately after the P-wave arrival. Then, we can estimate the magnitude easily from the formula, similar to the conventional magnitude-amplitude relation, M=α·logVmax+β·logB+γ, where Vmax is the P-wave maximum amplitude within a given short time interval (e. g., 3 seconds) after the P-wave arrival. For M7- and M8-class earthquakes whose rupture duration reaches 10 sec or more, we need to estimate the magnitude repeatedly with time as the amplitude increases.
The decrease of the parameter B with distance may be caused by anelasticity of the medium, scattering and geometrical spreading of P waves during propagation.View full abstractDownload PDF (1970K) -
Relationship Among Gravity Anomalies, Active Faults and SeismicityHirokazu SUTOU, Yoshihiro KITAGUCHI, Kazuhiro YAMAMOTO, Yoshiteru KONO2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 363-377
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSDetailed gravity anomaly map over the southern part of the Noto Peninsula was constructed by using approximately 7, 750 gravity data. In the southern part of the Ouchi-depression, we found an apparent discrepancy, about 2.5km in horizontal distance, between steep horizontal gradient zone of gravity anomaly and active faults reported from geological and geomorphologic studies. The discrepancy presumably indicates that there are two sets of faults in this area: one is a reported active fault situated at the plain-hill boundary in the Ouchi-depression, and the other one is beneath the steep gradient zone of gravity anomalies in the hill area.
From gravity anomalies and deep drilling data, we estimated a 3-D basement structure in this region.
In the Ouchi depression region, boundaries of the basement thus estimated generally show good agreement with the topographic ones, which are also believed as active faults. We emphasize, however, that a large discrepancy (approx. 2.5km) exists between topographic and basement boundaries in the southwestern part of the depression.
In the southeastern flank of the Hodatsu hill, north of Himi city, a zone of steep change of the basement depth (approx. 1, 000m) is estimated. There are no reported active faults along the zone but that is a region of relatively high seismic activity. These data suggest that ambient seismogenic faults may underlie beneath this region.View full abstractDownload PDF (6317K) -
Yutaka HAYASHI2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 379-381
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
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Hiroki MIYAMACHI, Shinya NAKANO, Shu-ichiro HIRANO, Kazuhiko GOTO2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 383-386
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
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An Interpretation of GPS Velocity VectorsKatsuhiko ISHIBASHI, Yohei ITANI2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 387-390
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSDownload PDF (641K) -
Norihito UMINO2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 391
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
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The Features for 51 Years since the 1952 Tokachi-Oki EarthquakeHiroaki TAKAHASHI, Minoru KASAHARA2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 393-403
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSWe investigate seismic activity off Tokachi region, southeastern Hokkaido, Japan, where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the overriding plate, by analyzing hypocenter catalogues produced at Hokkaido University and Japan Meteorological Agency. The time-space distribution of the earthquakes clearly shows a decline in seismic activity in the focal region of the Tokachi-oki earthquake of 4 March 1952 (M8.2) from the early 1990's to the present. Remarkable low seismic activity on the focal region of the 1952 earthquake indicates strong plate coupling. It also implies full stress accumulation generated through relative plate motion without energy release either by seismic or aseismic events after the 1952 event. A simple integration of relative displacement between the two plates after the latest event is approximated at 4.2m. This value equals the mean slip of 4m resulting from the 1952 earthquake. These facts point to a possible occurrence of the next great earthquake with M≥8 in the near future.View full abstractDownload PDF (7796K) -
Yuichiro TANIOKA2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 405-411
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThe location and dimension of the fault of the 1971 Tokachi-oki earthquake are estimated using tsunami waveforms observed at four tide gauge stations. The earthquake is the intra-plate one with the normal fault type mechanism. The center of the fault is located about 25km north of the epicenter. The dimension of the fault can be from 20km×20km to 40km×40km size. The slip amount of the fault is 0.73m for the 30km×30km fault model. The seismic moment is estimated to be 4.6×1019Nm (Mw 7.1). The direction of the T-axis from the focal mechanism of the earthquake is not parallel to the direction of the subduction, but the direction is perpendicular to it. The Pacific slab bends along the arc-parallel direction beneath Hokkaido. The source region of the earthquake is close to the region where the Pacific slab bends. Therefore, the direction of T-axis of the focal mechanism becomes parallel to the direction of the above bending.View full abstractDownload PDF (790K) -
Akira HASEGAWA, Junichi NAKAJIMA, Norihito UMINO, Satoshi MIURA, Yoko ...2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 413-424
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSSeismic tomography studies in northeastern (NE) Japan have revealed the existence of inclined seismic low-velocity zones at depths shallower than -150km in the mantle wedge sub-parallel to the subducted slab, which probably correspond to the upwelling flow portion of the subduction-induced convection. The inclined low-velocity zone attains the Moho right beneath the volcanic front or the Ou Backbone Range, suggesting that the volcanic front is formed by this hot upwelling flow. Aqueous fluids supplied from the suducted slab are transported upward through this upwelling flow, and thus reach to shallow levels along the Backbone Range. They are expelled from solidified magma and further migrate upward. Existence of aqueous fluids perhaps weakens the strength of the crustal rocks surrounding them. It is expected that this causes contractive deformation locally concentrated along the Backbone Range under the compressional stress field in this volcanic arc. A strain rate distribution map estimated from GPS data shows notable concentration of east-west contraction along the Backbone Range, consistent with the above expectation. Based on these observations, we propose a simple model to explain the deformation pattern of the arc crust and the characteristic shallow seismic activity beneath NE Japan.View full abstractDownload PDF (13282K) -
Norihito UMINO, Tomomi OKADA, Junichi NAKAJIMA, Shuichiro HORI, Toshio ...2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 425-434
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSWe conducted a temporary seismic observation just after the occurrence of July 26, 2003, M6.4 northern Miyagi earthquake, in order to precisely locate aftershock hypocenters. Thirteen portable data-logger stations and one communication satellite telemetry station were installed in and around the focal area of the earthquake. Hypocenters of aftershocks were located by using data observed at those temporary stations and nearby stationary stations of Tohoku University, Hi-net and Japan Meteorological Agency. Obtained aftershock distribution delineates the fault planes of this M6.4 event in the depth range of 3-12km, dipping to the west at an angle of -50 degree in the northern part of the aftershock area and to the northwest again at -40 degree in the southern part. Temporary observation data also allowed us to determine focal mechanisms of many aftershocks. The results show that focal mechanism of reverse fault type is predominant in this earthquake sequence including foreshock (M5.6), main shock (M6.4) and most aftershocks. Directions of P axes, however, are classified into three groups. P axes of M5.6 foreshock and the main shock estimated from P-wave poralities have NW-SE directions. On the other hand, moment tensor solution of the main shock has a P axis of east-west direction. Moreover, the largest aftershock (M5.5), that occurred in northernmost part of the aftershock area, has a P axis of NE-SW direction. Aftershocks with P axis of NW-SE direction occurred mainly in the southern part of the aftershock area where M5.6 foreshock and the main shock ruptures initiated. Many aftershocks with P axes of east-west direction took place in the central part of the aftershock area where large amount of fault slips by the main shock were estimated by wave form inversions. Many aftershocks in the northernmost part of the aftershock area have the same focal mechanisms as that of the largest aftershock.View full abstractDownload PDF (1274K) -
Shuichiro HORI, Norihito UMINO, Toshio KONO, Akira HASEGAWA2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 435-446
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSWe detected many reflected S waves at velocity boundaries within the crust or the upper mantle (SxS waves) in seismograms of shallow earthquakes. We estimated locations of those boundaries based on arrival time differences between the reflected SxS and direct S waves. The estimated S-wave reflectors (bright spots) are distributed in the wide area of NE Japan, that is, not only beneath volcanic areas but also beneath active faults. Depths to the reflectors beneath volcanic areas are shallower than those beneath active faults. Deeper cut-off depth of the reflectors has a positive correlation to that of shallow microearthquakes. It seems that the cut-off depths of both the reflectors and earthquakes are principally governed by the geotherms in the crust. Prominent S-wave reflectors are detected beneath the Senya Fault, which slipped at the time of 1896 M7.2 Rikuu earthquake. Some of them are located on the fault plane of the M7.2 earthquake. Other horizontal reflectors are also detected in the deeper extension of the fault; they might be a part of detachment fault. Many reflectors are also detected in the deeper extension of the fault plane of 1998 M5.0 Sendai earthquake. S-wave reflectors are also detected beneath the focal area of 1962 M6.5 northern Miyagi earthquake. It seems that they connect the focal area of M6.5 event with hypocenters of low frequency microearthquakes occurring near the Moho discontinuity. This close spatial relationship between bright spots, earthquake faults and low frequency microearthquakes suggests that the bright spots are important for better understanding of deep slip process in seismogenic inland fault systems.View full abstractDownload PDF (5215K) -
Ryoichi NAKAMURA, Tomiichi UETAKE2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 447-455
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSWe estimated precise 3-D attenuation structure beneath the Tohoku district, Japan, by inversion using a large number of strong motion records. Study area is 138-144°E in longitude and 36-42°N in latitude. Block size of inversion is horizontally 0.2° and 30km in depth. Number of data is 21, 578. These data were observed by the K-NET, the KiK-net and the JMA95-type seismometers. The result of checkerboard test shows good resolution at inland area in the depth range of 0-30km and 30-60km. The inversion results at 5Hz and 10Hz show clear relation between Low-Q zones and active volcanoes. Low-Q zones in the depth of 0-30km clearly correspond to Quaternary active volcanoes and the significant Low-Q belt was obtained along the volcanic front at 30-60km.View full abstractDownload PDF (3149K) -
Tetsuo YAMASHITA, Tomomi OKADA, Toru MATSUZAWA, Akira HASEGAWA2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 457-469
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSWe estimated the scaling relation, i. e. MO (seismic moment)-fC (corner frequency) relation, of small to moderate-sized earthquakes east off northeastern Japan. We used spectral ratio method to accurately estimate fC from observed spectra of earthquakes. We calculated spectral ratios of all the event pairs with spatial separations less than the hypocenter location errors, and estimated fC values by fitting them with theoretical spectral ratios. Seismic moments were estimated from the JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) magnitudes. We also estimated spatial variation of the scaling relation along the plate boundary of the subduction zone. Obtained scaling relation was compared with the scaling law derived by Nadeau and Johnson (1998) in which seismic coupling coefficient was assumed to be 100%. Obtained MO-fC samples are somewhat scattered and the distribution range corresponds to seismic coupling coefficients of 1 to 100%. The range corresponds to stress drops of 0.1 to 10MPa. Regional variations of stress drops are also observed. In particular, lower stress drops are estimated in and around the fault area of the 1896 Sanriku tsunami earthquake. Higher stress drops are obtained for the deeper portion (deep thrust zone) of the plate boundary. This tendency of higher stress drops for deeper events can be explained by the difference in physical properties (i. e., rigidity) which depend on depth. The MO-fC relation also varies along the arc. Areas with higher stress drops are distributed in and around the asperities of some large earthquakes. These events with higher stress drops might occur off the plate boundary and/or on the plate boundary in and around the asperities.View full abstractDownload PDF (3965K) -
Yoko SUWA, Satoshi MIURA, Akira HASEGAWA, Toshiya SATO, Kenji TACHIBAN ...2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 471-484
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSGEONET, the nation-wide network of GPS stations conducted by the Geophysical Survey Institute of Japan, has made it possible to investigate the crustal deformation of the Japan Islands in unprecedented detail. Because of relatively poor accuracy in vertical displacements, however, previous studies estimated model parameters by weighting horizontal components largely, and sometimes encountered the inconsistency between theoretical and observed vertical displacements. Using the Precise Point Positioning technique, we improved the reliability in vertical component of displacement obtained by GPS observations, and estimated spatial distribution of interplate coupling during 1997-2001 from 3-dimensional velocity field including this vertical component.
The results show strong coupling along the plate boundary off Tokachi and off Miyagi, corresponding to the previously reported locations of asperities. Our result indicates that these asperities are cohered in the interseismic period. On the other hand, relatively weak coupling is estimated for the plate boundary off Sanriku probably due to the post-seismic slip after the 1989, 1992, and 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquakes. However, a close look at the timeseries of site coordinates reveals a systematic increase in westward velocity at the beginning of 1999 for the area around northern Iwate and Aomori prefectures. This suggests that the interplate coupling in this area has been recovering since 1999.
The aseismic front has been interpreted as the lower limit of the locked zone on the plate boundary, and is estimated to be located at a depth of 50-60km in northeastern Japan. The back-slip distribution derived from three-component velocity data in this study, however, indicates that the back-slip region extends to a depth of about 100km, much deeper than that predicted based solely on horizontal displacement data.View full abstractDownload PDF (9681K) -
Yasuo YABE2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 485-495
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSNew interpretation of spatio-temporal variations in b-value is proposed based on the laboratory observations. The spatio-temporal variations in b-value, which have been related to stress state by the ordinary interpretation, are translated to frictional properties of a fault. The new interpretation is as follows; (1) a linear increase in b-value with cumulative displacement breaks down at a transition displacement where frictional property changes from velocity hardening to velocity weakening. (2) The rate-dependence parameter of b-value has the opposite sign to that of friction. The new interpretation is applied to the shallow seismicity in subduction zone east-off NE Japan under the assumption that it is generated on the plate interface. The inferred distribution of frictional properties is generally consistent with both distributions of coseismic slips for the past large earthquakes and slip deficits in this region, showing validity of the interpretation. This study involves the importance of monitoring seismicity to elucidate mechanical properties of faults.View full abstractDownload PDF (3419K) -
Takuya NISHIMURA, Takeshi SAGIYA, Satoshi MIURA2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 497-509
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSWe constructed eight continuous GPS stations across the Nagamachi-Rifu fault zone, northeastern Japan to reveal the detailed spatial pattern of crustal deformation. High strain rate around the fault zone observed by the GEONET and the occurrence of the MJMA 5.2 Sendai earthquake on September 15, 1998, at the deep edge of the seismogenic part of the fault motivated us to confirm the aseismic sliding of the fault in or below the seismogenic depth from the contemporary deformation. We analyzed the GPS data of new stations as well as existing stations, totaling up to 50 stations in central Tohoku, using GIPSY 2.6.1 software and estimated GPS site velocity and strain rate by a least square method. One component of the principal strain rate shows distinctive compression in the E-W or ESE-WNW direction in the whole region. In the forearc region, the other component of the principal strain rate are almost zero in the south of 38°15′, while NNE-SSW extension in the north of 38°15′. Strain rate distribution is spatially heterogeneous in the region. We found a high strain rate zone west of the Nagamachi-Rifu fault zone and that between Honshu and Awashima in the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan. Low strain rate zones exist in the west of the high strain region of the Nagamachi-Rifu fault zone and in the western half of Yamagata Prefecture. Strain rate distribution pattern on the hanging wall side of the Nagamachi-Rifu fault can be modeled by aseismic sliding of 10mm/yr on a horizontal detachment fault connecting to the Nagamachi-Rifu fault at a depth of about 15km beneath the Ou backbone range. However, it is difficult to constrain a fault model for the strain rate distribution from the present dataset uniquely.View full abstractDownload PDF (2601K) -
Kiyohiko YAMAMOTO, Namiko SATO, Yasuo YABE2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 511-527
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSIn-situ stresses were measured at four sites, Hashikami, Fudai, Tono (KGJ) and Kamaishi, in the Pacific Ocean side of Kitakami mountains, northeastern Honshu, Japan. These measurements reveal the followings: 1) The ‘tensile stress’ is predominant in north-south or northeast-southwest direction. Here, ‘tensile stress’ means stress smaller than the overburden pressure. 2) The magnitude of largest compressive stress is nearly equal to the overburden pressure for these sites. 3) The horizontal stress is consistent with the horizontal strain of the crust obtained from the long-term geodetic measurement of about 100 years. 4) The direction, θhmin, of ‘tension’ axis appears be parallel to the polarization direction of fast split S-waves propagating in the upper mantle. 5) The direction, θhmin, is almost parallel to the displacement velocity vector in ITRF97 coordinate system obtained by GPS observation for four years. 6) If the direction of displacement velocity vector in ITRF coordinate system is taken as an approximate direction of absolute displacement vector, focal mechanism solutions appear to be explained by the dislocations on weak faults in the displacement field. 7) By the review of the in-situ stress data of the ODP Hole 794C in the Sea of Japan on the Amurian plate, it is found that the ‘tension’ axis lies approximately parallel both to the spreading direction of the Sea of Japan and to the direction of the largest P-wave velocity of the upper mantle. 8) The displacement velocity vector of the Amurian plate is estimated to be almost parallel to the spreading direction of the Sea of Japan. Assuming that the present displacement direction is still parallel to the spreading direction, the articles 7) and 8) suggest that the traction by upper mantle flow drives the crust and produces the stresses in the crust beneath the Sea of Japan. The relationships among stress, displacement velocity and anisotropy of seismic wave velocity for the Kitakami mountains are similar to the relationship for the crust beneath the Sea of Japan. This suggests that the upper mantle drives the intra-plate crust as well as the crust beneath the sea.View full abstractDownload PDF (2404K) -
Masayoshi ICHIYANAGI, Hiroaki TAKAHASHI, Yoshinobu MOTOYA, Minoru KASA ...2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 529-536
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
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Kei KATSUMATA, Minoru KASAHARA2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 537-540
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
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Akiko HASEMI, Kaoru TAKIZAWA, Shuichiro HORI, Norihito UMINO, Akira HA ...2004 Volume 56 Issue 4 Pages 541-545
Published: March 25, 2004
Released on J-STAGE: March 11, 2010
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