Following the demise of the Cultural Revolution, and opening its doors to foreign capital investment, the Chinese economy has continued to grow at extremely high average rate of 7% per annum. With the steady increase in domestic wealth in China, coupled with the increasing demand for electrical home appliances, “Industrial Clusters” of consumer electronics manufacturers, their suppliers and exporters have formed in many of China's costal regions (particularly in the PC, mobile phone and semiconductor sector), and have grown rapidly to provide internationally competitive products at a low cost.
China is in a unique position of succeeding simultaneously in both high tech and low cost production industries (Historically, developing industrial countries have followed a discrete pyramid process like a V-shape of flying geese, stepping from labour intensive, to capital intensive and then intelligence intensive industries).
Consequently, it is likely that Japanese manufacturing will weaken quickly and create a vacuum in the domestic industry, unless it can manage its Chinese satellite plants strategically, and form its own industrial clusters in Japan, which will create new employment opportunities. Japanese manufacturing industry can only survive if it moves away from its present high cost structure, and shifts to an intelligence intensive industry that is higher than that which is attainable in China, and is in a different market from Chinese products. A strategy of industrial clustering will help develop this new higher level.
It is highly likely that China will become the leading IT nation during this century. Throughout history the bench mark country of industry has shifted every few decades. In the past, civilizations have risen and fallen in China, India, the Middle East, Europe and perhaps today in America. During that time, Japan, although once dominating world industry, could not always maintain her position. From now on, Japan cannot consider its own industrial development strategy without considering that of China.
Japan will need to develop considerable talent to shift its manufacturing industry to a high value added (intelligence-intensive) type of manufacturing. It will be impossible to grow this talent overnight. A long term vision: “a hundred years to build a country” is required.
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