Aging current active seafarers and a shortage of new recruits has become an obvious problem throughout the industry in Japan. The Maritime Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(MLIT) has recommended the system of grouping small coastal shipping companies by utilizing ship management companies to solve these problems. In addition, the MLIT provides the guidelines for ship management and for evaluating the management system. However, under the circumstances where the effective jobs-to-applications ratio of coastal seafarer in 2015 will become twice and a shortage of seafarers will be serious, grouping through ship management companies has not so progressed as expected. The purpose of this research is to elucidate the reason why ship management is difficult to establish management system as a type of business in coastal shipping, and to propose effective measures to resolve it.
In shipbuilding, typically the design objective is based on technical performance of the system at a given operational profile. This paper proposes a methodology to improve life cycle value of target ships by introducing a real option approach. The proposed methodology can consider options of repairs and retrofits in a dockyard very early, during conceptual ship design. A proposed flexible design is evaluated by using a ship performance simulator and a wide range of market fluctuation scenarios generated by the Monte-Carlo method. This methodology was applied to the case study of Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) life cycle value evaluation. The result shows that flexible design including real options can significantly aid in consideration of market fluctuation scenarios in comparison with recent typical design optimization approaches.